"Monsoon Has Never Failed India In 13 Million Years": IIT Professor

The southwest monsoon is already showing signs of uncertainty this year. It is running late over Kerala and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected that seasonal rainfall is likely to be around 90 per cent of the Long Period Average, with a margin of error of four per cent. This suggests that below normal rainfall is the most likely outcome for the June to September season. 

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra has indicated that the current outlook points to a weaker than normal monsoon performance overall.

At a time when concerns over climate change and erratic weather patterns are growing, these early signals have triggered anxieties about the future of India's monsoon. 

Will global warming weaken the monsoon? Could India face a future of declining rainfall or even desert like conditions?

A leading voice in paleoclimatology offers a reassuring answer.

Professor Anil K Gupta of Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, and former Director of the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, Dehradun, and one of India's best-known experts on monsoon history, said there is no reason to fear the disappearance of the monsoon. 

His research, which traces monsoon behaviour over millions of years, shows the system is deeply rooted in the geography of the Indian subcontinent.

"The monsoon has been in this landmass for the last 13 million years," said Professor Gupta. "As long as we have the present-day landmass configuration, the monsoon will remain."

That geological span of time is striking. 

It means that for over one crore and thirty lakh years, through major shifts in climate and environment, the monsoon has persisted. 

According to Professor Gupta, the key driver is the unique configuration of the Indian peninsula and the towering Himalayas to the north, which together create the conditions necessary for seasonal reversal of winds and rainfall.

He stressed that this basic framework is not expected to change in the foreseeable future. 

"As long as the Indian landmass remains similar, peninsular land to the south and high Himalayas in the north, the monsoon will continue," he said.

Yet continuity does not mean stability. Paleoclimate records reveal that the monsoon has gone through dramatic fluctuations in the past. One of the most significant events occurred around 4,200 years ago, when a major drought hit large parts of Asia.

"We see there is an event that happened around 4,200 years ago. During that time, the whole Asian landmass suffered a major drought event and population migration was rampant," said Prof Gupta. "Such extreme events have been in the monsoon system in the past."

These natural variations were driven entirely by climatic and environmental factors, long before human influence became significant. Today, however, the picture includes the impact of global warming and human activity.

Prof Gupta put the scale of human influence in perspective. "As compared to natural variability, the human interference is not that alarming," he said, pointing out that large swings in monsoon intensity have occurred even without anthropogenic effects.

What climate change is expected to do, according to long term data, is not to eliminate the monsoon but to intensify it. "We expect based on our past data, the monsoon will have more extreme events," he said. "Some areas will have more precipitation, flood-like situations, whereas other areas might have deficient rains similar to drought," he said.

This suggests a future where variability increases. Floods and droughts may become more frequent, sometimes occurring in close proximity across different parts of the country. The distribution of rainfall could become more uneven even if the overall system strengthens.

In fact, warming across the landmass may lead to stronger monsoon dynamics. "As we have more warming in the landmass, we will have more strong winds and more precipitation over the landmass," Prof Gupta said, drawing on evidence from studies spanning several thousand years.

For a country whose agriculture, water resources and economy depend heavily on the monsoon, this offers both reassurance and a warning. The reassurance is that the monsoon will not fail India. The warning is that it may become more volatile.

Prof Gupta summed it up with clarity and confidence: "Monsoon has been the soul of our nation. It has remained so. It will remain so."

So while the 2026 monsoon may be playing truant and forecasts point to a below normal season, the deeper history of the monsoon tells a far more enduring story. For 13 million years, the monsoon has sustained life on the Indian subcontinent. That long record suggests it is not about to disappear.

The challenge ahead lies not in fearing its absence, but in preparing for its changing behaviour.