- Six Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs plan to form a separate parliamentary group, signaling a new split
- This move follows months of secret talks with Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena faction
- The timing coincides with Shiv Sena's 60th Foundation Day on June 19 for symbolic impact
The move by six MPs from the Shiv Sena (UBT) to form a separate parliamentary group has reignited discussions around 'Operation Tiger', indicating that after the historic split in Shiv Sena in 2022 - engineered by Eknath Shinde - Uddhav Thackeray may now face another setback. The big question is not why the six want to leave but why this is happening now. This was not an overnight development.
Preparations had been underway for months, during which time behind-closed-door contact between the wantaway MPs and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena camp was maintained.
Both sides waited for the right political opportunity.
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Over the past year the rebel MPs have held hushed meets in Mumbai and Delhi, as well as meetings with Shinde. The Thackeray Sena repeatedly denied any talk of rifts in its ranks.
Until recently, Sena UBT leaders publicly claimed the party remained united.
But political observers noted the last round of such speculation was not followed by strong denials from the Shinde camp. Moreover, Shinde's recent political engagements and confident body language only strengthened the perception that something significant was in the works.
Why June 19 is significant
The timing of 'Operation Tiger' is perhaps its most important aspect.
June 19 is the 60th Foundation Day of the Shiv Sena - a party founded by the late Bal Thackeray.
Analysts believe that if the formal induction of rebel MPs into the Shinde-led Shiv Sena takes place around the Foundation Day celebrations, it will carry enormous symbolic value.
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In 2022, Shinde delivered a massive blow by splitting the party's legislative wing.
A parliamentary split on the party's Foundation Day would further strengthen Shinde's claim to the Shiv Sena legacy and send a powerful political message across Maharashtra.
For Thackeray, such a development would not merely be about numbers; it would raise fresh questions about organisational control and his leadership authority.
BJP's parliamentary calculus
The timing also seems significant from a national political perspective.
With parliament's monsoon session approaching, every additional MP strengthens the position of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. If six UBT MPs move closer to it - via Shinde's Shiv Sena - it could provide the ruling alliance with additional numbers in the Lok Sabha.
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But analyst Ravikiran Deshmukh believes the NDA is looking beyond immediate parliamentary arithmetic. There is speculation it is preparing to revisit major constitutional and electoral reforms, including the implementation of women's reservation and delimitation.
The target, it seems, is holding a reliable two-third majority to pass amendments to the constitution, with special focus on women's reservation and delimitation, both of which, sources suggested, the centre plans to introduce again in the upcoming session.
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While there has been no official announcement from the government regarding such plans, opposition parties have repeatedly alleged that the NDA is working to strengthen its numbers in anticipation of major legislative initiatives requiring broad parliamentary support.
Win-win for Shinde
For Shinde, this could deliver benefits in Maharashtra and at the national level.
If six UBT MPs join his camp, Shinde's parliamentary strength will rise from seven to 13.
Such a number would significantly enhance his bargaining power within the NDA.
Sources suggest that a stronger parliamentary presence could strengthen his Sena's claim for greater representation in the union cabinet. At present, the party has minister of state positions only. A full cabinet berth will substantially elevate his national profile and influence.
A stronger position in Mahayuti
'Operation Tiger' could also alter the balance of power in Maharashtra's ruling Mahayuti.
If Shinde's Sena has 13 MPs, it could emerge as a more influential partner.
Beyond numerical strength, such a development would reinforce Shinde's image as a leader whose influence extends beyond state politics into national decision-making.
Changing dynamics of national politics
'Operation Tiger' is not merely a Maharashtra-centric development; it appears to be part of a broader national strategy that could ultimately strengthen the NDA's position in parliament.
Over the past months, signs of political churn have emerged across opposition parties. Reports of MPs distancing themselves from their parent parties, growing internal dissatisfaction, and speculation about possible realignments have become increasingly common. Against this backdrop, the developments within Shiv Sena (UBT) assume greater significance.
The addition of six MPs through 'Operation Tiger' would directly increase the NDA's effective strength in the Lok Sabha while simultaneously weakening one of its vocal opposition allies.
The challenge before Thackeray
Following the 2022 rebellion, Thackeray managed to keep his faction politically relevant through public outreach, sympathy among supporters, and an aggressive opposition strategy.
However, a split among MPs presents a different challenge altogether.
A parliamentary breakaway would strike at the heart of UBT's national presence and could weaken its influence within the opposition bloc. It would also create a perception that defections are continuing despite the party's efforts to stabilise after the original split.
Recognising this, parliamentary leader Arvind Sawant has written to Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla, urging him not to recognise any separate faction without first hearing the party's position.
What Is the real objective
Reducing 'Operation Tiger' to a story of six MPs changing sides would be an oversimplification.
At stake are multiple political battles simultaneously - the legacy of Shiv Sena, the future of Uddhav Thackeray's leadership, Eknath Shinde's growing national ambitions, the NDA's parliamentary strategy, and the evolving power equations in both Maharashtra and Delhi.
If itreaches its logical conclusion, it may be remembered not merely as another split in Shiv Sena but as a significant political event with implications extending far beyond Maharashtra.
For now, one thing appears certain: 'Operation Tiger' has moved beyond speculation and is rapidly becoming one of the most closely watched political developments in India.
