- Counting of Bengal votes today after a do-or-die battle between Mamata Banerjee and the BJP
- BJP grew from 3 seats in 2016 to 77 in 2021, is aiming for majority in the 2026 election
- Trinamool won 215 seats with a 48 per cent vote share in the 2021 assembly polls
Will Bengal opt for a change this time or stick with Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee? Amid the huge commotion over voter roll deletions and the surrounding noise over infiltration, corruption and unemployment, this would be the big question that that will be answered today as the counting of votes begin at 8 am.
The BJP's battle for Bengal, which had a quiet beginning in 2016, has accelerated over the years. From 3 seats and 10 per cent vote share in 2016, the party managed 77 seats and 38 per cent vote share by 2021 -- a huge leap.
The Trinamool, though, improved on its 2016 results as well, winning 215 seats with a 48 per cent vote share in 2021.
This time, the BJP is hoping for a majority - the party's chief strategist Amit Shah had said the party will win 110 seats in the first phase alone and form government in the state.
South Bengal, though, with its 152 seats, is the bastion of the Trinamool Congress, which has lost ground to the BJP in north Bengal.
The majority mark in the 294-member Bengal assembly is 148. But with repolling ordered in Falta, results for only 293 seats will be out for now. The counting for Falta will be held on May 21.
Following the election, Banerjee sounded confident. As Bengal registered a 92-plus per cent turnout in the two phases of election, the Chief Minister said, "We will cross 226 seats in 2026. We might even cross 230 seats. I have complete faith in the massive mandate given by the people".
What the exit polls have predicted is part of a "larger conspiracy" to influence perception before the election results are announced, she added.
So far, five exit polls have predicted a BJP victory - which would require at least a 5.3 per cent swing.
The voter list revisions, though, have pared down the electoral rolls by 91 lakh - more than 11.6 per cent of the electorate - and in multiple areas where the Trinamool's winning margin is slim. The deletion figure includes over 27 lakh voters following adjudication, whose appeals are pending in 19 tribunals.
Do Or Die Battle
After three straight terms since 2011, when she toppled the 35-year CPM regime, many say this could be the toughest election Mamata Banerjee is facing.
But that same tag had been applied in 2021 as well. Banerjee had aced that contest, its enduring image remained that of a lone, silent woman in a wheelchair picking up a paintbrush in a corner of Kolkata.
But the BJP - known for its vast election machinery, has not been idle.
Over the years, it has been whittling away at Trinamool's shiny credentials change from the 34-year Left rule, relentlessly flagging corruption, law and order issues and the lack of development that has mired Bengal for over five decades and -- critics say -- turned Trinamool into Left Front 2.0.
Learning its lesson from 2021, this time it has neither advanced turncoats nor attacked the Chief Minister personally, but quietly fielded sons of the soil and hammered on its promises of development, jobs, infrastructure and corruption-free governance.
Along with "Jai Shri Ram", slogans of "Jai Ma Kali" and "Jai Ma Durga" have been heard as well.
And to prove their Bengali credentials, BJP candidates on campaign trail have been seen dangling fish on a hook -- the picture of the 1850s Bengali bhadralok on way home from market.
The Trinamool has projected the contest as one of self-determination against outsiders -- from food to culture -- and of survival against a Centre that refuses to release state funds.
Till the voter list revision changed the script.
Banerjee, a perennial streetfighter, issued a masterstroke at the eleventh-hour, flipping her 2011 "Badla Noy Badal Chai" (Change not Revenge) slogan to say "Badal noy Badla chai (Revenge not Change)".
It was a clarion call to the families whose relatives' names got deleted. Which was why the turnout figures also appeared as a positive sign for the party.
For the Trinamool it is essential to keep the south Bengal seats and the Muslim vote intact. For Banerjee herself, winning the battle in Bhabanipur against her aide-turned political bete noire Suvendu Adhikari is essential, especially after 2021 setback in Nandigram.
For 71-year-old Banerjee, the writing on the wall is clear. A defeat in the 2026 election would make a comeback doubly difficult.
