- El Nino is rapidly intensifying and may become one of the strongest on record by late 2026
- NOAA confirmed El Nino conditions, with forecasts showing a peak Nino 3.4 anomaly of 3.6 degrees Celsius
- Early 2026 warming is faster than the 1997 and 2015 events, raising risks of global weather impacts
A rapidly intensifying El Nino is raising concerns among climate scientists, with recent projections suggesting it could become one of the strongest events observed in the modern record. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA has confirmed that El Nino conditions have developed, and most seasonal forecast models indicate the event is likely to strengthen through late 2026 before peaking during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Adding to the concern is a new analysis by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, who examined 667 ensemble forecasts from 14 seasonal climate models. The analysis suggests the developing El Nino could surpass the record-setting events of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.
Nino 3.4 anomaly will be around 3.6 degrees Celsius, compared with the previous record of 2.75 degrees Celsius during the 2015-16 El Nino. More than 90 per cent of the ensemble members project a peak stronger than any event observed in the modern record.
Can This 'Forecast' Become A Reality?
Analysis of NOAA's daily OISST v2.1 data shows the Nino 3.4 anomaly was already around 2.2 degrees Celsius on July 13, a level that no previous year in the satellite record (since 1982) had reached this early in the calendar year.
By comparison, the anomaly was around 1.6 degrees Celsius during the explosive 1997 El Nino and about 1.3 degrees Celsius in 2015 on the same date. The unusually rapid warming suggests the event is evolving much faster than previous super El Ninos, increasing the likelihood of widespread impacts on global weather, including heatwaves, floods and drought over the coming months.
Impact On India
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already estimated this year's southwest monsoon rainfall at just 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
According to IMD's latest forecast, the Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to remain neutral during the southwest monsoon season. This means there is no strong compensating mechanism to counter the developing El Nino. As a result, the Pacific Ocean's influence on India's monsoon is likely to be more pronounced if El Nino continues to strengthen.
India has already seen the impact in the first month of the monsoon. June rainfall was nearly 40 per cent below the Long Period Average (LPA), making it the country's fifth-driest June in 126 years and the third-driest in the last 100 years.
The rainfall deficit has continued into July. So far this month, India has received 19 per cent below-normal rainfall, taking the cumulative monsoon deficit to 23 per cent.
The impact of the weak monsoon is already visible in India's fields. According to the Union Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare, kharif crops had been sown across 531.25 lakh hectares as of July 10, 2026, compared with the normal area of 549.36 lakh hectares, around three per cent lower than the five-year average (2019-20 to 2023-24). Rice, the country's largest kharif crop, remains the biggest concern. Sowing has covered only about 28 per cent of its normal seasonal area so far and is nearly nine per cent lower than at the same time last year, reflecting the impact of delayed and uneven monsoon rainfall.
