In Indian elections, few strategies have proven as effective as targeted welfare schemes. The 2024 Maharashtra and 2023 Madhya Pradesh assembly elections offer compelling evidence: direct cash transfers to women voters can dramatically shift electoral outcomes.
In Maharashtra, the Ladki Bahin Yojana, launched just weeks before the assembly polls, helped the NDA recover from a 0.5% deficit in the Lok Sabha elections to a 14% lead in the assembly polls, securing 49.3% vote share and over 200 seats in the 288-member house.
In Madhya Pradesh, the Ladli Behna Yojana-a similar scheme offering Rs 1,250 per month to women-helped the BJP jump from 41.1% vote share in 2018 to 50.2% in 2023, winning 163 of 230 seats.
These schemes didn't just offer financial relief-they cut across caste and identity narratives, neutralising opposition campaigns focused on constitutional threats and anti-reservation sentiments.
Bihar's Electoral Math: A Tightrope Walk
In 2020, the NDA won Bihar by a razor-thin margin of 0.03% votes-just 3.3 lakh votes separated it from the Mahagathbandhan (MGB). With Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party entering the fray, the equations have become more complex.
Let's simulate a few scenarios based on alliance shifts and vote transfers:
In the last scenario, the NDA's lead narrows significantly. Now, if Prashant Kishor draws away just 5% of NDA's vote, the tables turn:
This final scenario would leave the NDA with 34.2 per cent vote share, and the MGB with 40 per cent - a 6 per cent gap that could cost the NDA the election.
Can Women Schemes Bridge the Gap?
Past evidence suggests that women-centric schemes can deliver a 6-9 per cent vote share boost:
Madhya Pradesh: +9 per cent vote share jump (2018 to 2023)
Maharashtra: +6 per cent vote share jump (Lok Sabha to assembly)
If the NDA replicates this in Bihar, it could neutralise PK's impact. A 6 per cent gain would level the contest; a 9 per cent gain would give the NDA a 3 per cent edge.
Using the cube law of psephology, which suggests that seat share is proportional to the cube of vote share, a 3 per cent vote lead could translate into a comfortable majority of 130+ seats.
The 50 Per Cent Benchmark: A Psychological And Political Threshold
In Maharashtra, the NDA's 49.3 per cent vote share was reminiscent of the 1972 Congress landslide (222/270 seats). In Bihar, the benchmark is closer: NDA won 206/243 seats in 2010 with just 39 per cent vote share.
To repeat that feat, the NDA needs to cross the 50 per cent mark - a tall order, but not impossible.
Allies like LJP and RLSP bring in 7.5 per cent base vote, but Upendra Kushwaha's recent discontent over seat allocation raises doubts about vote transfer reliability.
PK: Safety Valve Or Spoiler?
Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj could act as a safety valve, absorbing anti-incumbency votes that might otherwise go to the RJD. But beyond a threshold, his impact could be counterproductive for the NDA.
If Kishor pulls away 15 per cent of NDA's vote, even a women-centric scheme may not be enough to save the alliance.
Gender Dividend vs PK Disruption
The NDA's strategy in Bihar hinges on whether women-centric welfare schemes can deliver a decisive vote share boost. If they do, the alliance could offset PK's disruption and retain power. If not, Bihar may witness a dramatic shift in its political landscape.
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