"We will contest all 117 seats" is the most recent public line the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been taking in Punjab, signalling that talks of a patch-up with the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) have broken down. But about six months remain before the state votes, and discussions continue on three key issues, sources have told NDTV.
These issues are: who will contest for how many seats, which ones, and who'll be projected for the posts of chief minister and deputy chief minister. At the heart of it is an assertive BJP, which has so far played a much junior role to the Badals' Akali Dal in the Sikh-majority state. One round of talks on seat-sharing has already been held, sources told NDTV as of Thursday, August 27.
Question Of Numbers
It has been settled that the BJP will contest more seats than before, it is learnt. In the assembly elections that the BJP has fought in alliance with the SAD, it has contested in a maximum of 23 segments, as in 2017.
After their breakup over the SAD's opposition to the later-repealed farm laws of 2020-21, the BJP allied with former Congress CM Capt Amarinder Singh's Punjab Lok Congress (PLC) and Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa's faction of the SAD, with 70-odd candidates taking the BJP's symbol. The BJP got two seats.
It's on the basis of its solo performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections that the BJP is claiming more assembly seats this time. In that contest, the BJP received over 18.5 per cent of the votes in Punjab. It got no Lok Sabha seat of the state's 13. The ruling AAP got just three, the main Opposition Congress won seven, with two going to Independents. The SAD's Harsimrat Kaur Badal, whose husband Sukhbir Singh Badal leads a beleaguered SAD, retained the Bathinda Lok Sabha seat.
But data shows the BJP led on 23 assembly seats in that election; it was second on six seats, third on 16. Thus, it was ahead of the SAD on all of these 45 assembly seats. That is one of the numbers floated now for how many the BJP should get to contest.
The SAD received about 13.4 per cent of the votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. When calculated assembly segment-wise, the Akali Dal led on nine seats, was second on five, and third on another five. In that sense, it performed worse than its erstwhile junior partner.
Together, the two parties got about 32 per cent of the votes and registered a strong presence in 64 assembly segments.
The BJP's assessment is that, had the two parties been together, the alliance would have led in 57 assembly segments, which is just two short of the majority mark in the House of 117, sources told NDTV, noting that a revived alliance could give a tough fight to the AAP by building on the anti-incumbency sentiment as well. The Congress so far remains faction-ridden in the state.
Regional Aspirations
The SAD and BJP were in alliance from 1996 to 2020. In the 1997 assembly elections, they won by a landslide, with SAD getting 75 seats and the BJP 18. In 2007, the Akali Dal won 49 seats, and the BJP went up to 19. And in 2012, the alliance made history by winning a consecutive time, with the SAD at 56 and the BJP at 12.
But another open issue at this time is, which party will contest which seat. Generally, the BJP has contested in Hindu-dominated urban areas and the Akali Dal in rural areas that have a larger Sikh population. This time, the Akali Dal has been planning to contest some semi-urban seats as well, where the BJP is considered strong. The BJP has appointed Jat Sikhs in top positions in the state unit, and may want to enter rural Punjab as well. That will have to be considered for an agreement on such seats in particular, people familiar with the talks told NDTV.
Who'll Be The Face
Then there is the question of going into the election with a declared chief ministerial candidate. The BJP is not enthusiastic about that, it is learnt. The Akali Dal, however, wants Sukhbir Singh Badal to be the alliance's CM face. Here, some BJP leaders feel his image could come in the way, sources said. Sukhbir served as deputy CM when his father, the late Parkash Singh Badal, was CM.
However, if an alliance is struck and it wins, the CM would be from the Akali Dal since it will contest more seats, it is further learnt. The BJP would stake a claim to the deputy CM's post.
Neither seems in a hurry to announce the alliance. During BJP organisational general secretary BL Santhosh's recent visit to Punjab, there was emphasis on strengthening the BJP's booth-level structure in all 117 segments. The BJP is also planning a yatra on the issue of drug abuse across the state, highlighting recent achievements of the central government.
