As the Election Commission of India (ECI) announced the schedule for the Bihar Legislative Assembly polls on Monday, with voting set for November 6 and 11 in two phases and counting on November 14, a new opinion poll by IANS-Matrize News Communications paints a picture of voter sentiment and underscores the 'Modi factor' as a potential game-changer, with 57 per cent believing Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity will have a "big impact" on the elections, and 8 per cent saying "somewhat."
This aligns with the BJP's perceived strength, as 35 per cent of respondents view it as the best party for good governance in Bihar, ahead of the JD(U) at 18 per cent, RJD at 13 per cent, Jan Suraj at 8 per cent, Congress at 2 per cent, and then others.
The survey, conducted ahead of the poll dates, highlights strong approval for Chief Minister Nitish's governance, particularly on law and order, while underscoring persistent concerns like unemployment and inflation that could challenge the NDA's bid for another term.
In the chief ministerial race, Nitish Kumar (JD-U) dominates as the first choice for 42 per cent of voters if elections were held today.
Tejashwi Yadav (RJD) trails at 15 per cent, while political strategist Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party garners 9 per cent rating.
Other contenders include Chirag Paswan (LJP-Ram Vilas) at 8 per cent, Samrat Choudhary (BJP) at 3 per cent, Giriraj Singh (BJP) at 1 per cent, and Upendra Kushwaha (JD-U) at 1 per cent.
Seventeen per cent remain undecided, and 4 per cent prefer others.
The IANS-Matrize poll, titled 'Opinion Poll Report @ Bihar,' surveyed voters on a range of issues, from local MLA performance to welfare schemes and leadership preferences.
A key highlight is the high satisfaction with the Nitish Kumar-led government, as 42 per cent of respondents are "very satisfied," and 31 per cent "satisfied," totalling 73 per cent approval.
On law and order, a cornerstone of Nitish's image, 72 per cent prefer his government over Lalu Yadav's era (10 per cent), with 12 per cent dissatisfied with both and 6 per cent unsure.
This could bolster the NDA, especially as the 2025 Assembly polls follow Nitish's return to the alliance in 2024.
Welfare schemes appear to be electoral assets. The free 125 units of electricity is seen as highly beneficial by 61 per cent (big benefit) and 9 per cent (some benefit), with only 21 per cent predicting no gain.
Similarly, the Mahila Rozgar Yojana, providing Rs 10,000 instalments to women, has positively impacted 52 per cent (quite positive) and 10 per cent (somewhat) of families' economic conditions, though 19 per cent report no effect and 19 per cent are unsure.
However, scepticism runs high towards the Opposition RJD's promise of 10 lakh government jobs, with 61 per cent having "no trust at all," 18 per cent "full trust", 11 per cent "partial", and 10 per cent "unsure".
This could undermine Tejashwi Yadav's campaign, which has emphasised employment for the youth.
Regarding the ECI's Special Intensive Revision of voter lists, 54 per cent approve it as a "good step", 17 per cent deem it "necessary", with 16 per cent "undecided".
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
