The four Bihar constituences with the highest concentration of Muslim population split between the NDA and Mahagathbandhan, partially wavering from its usual support of the non-NDA combine at the time of conduct of elections.
How Muslim-Dominated Regions Have Voted This Year
Araria: Congress' Abidur Rahman has secured a decisive lead with over 86,000 votes, as of 6.30 pm.
Katihar: BJP's Tarkishore Prasad emerged victorious.
Kishanganj: Congress' Mohammed Qamrul Hoda emerged victorious with a margin of 12,000 votes.
Purnea: BJP's Vijay Kumar Khemka won with a whopping margin of over 33,000 votes.
Bihar's Muslim Demographic
Muslims account for around 17.7 per cent of Bihar's population, according to the 2023 caste-based survey data. The community represents an estimated 47 per cent of the population in the Seemanchal region, playing a decisive role during polls. The region has 24 Assembly constituencies - or roughly 10 per cent of the state's total seats.
Seemanchal region, bordering West Bengal and Nepal, comprises Araria, Katihar, Kishanganj and Purnea districts. Kishanganj has the highest Muslim population (68 per cent), followed by Katihar (44 per cent), Araria (43 per cent), and Purnia (38 per cent).
While religion and caste are factors that remain at play in the region, it also suffers from poverty, slacking development and frequent floods.
How Muslims Have Voted
A large majority of Muslim votes in Bihar has traditionally gone to Lalu Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), while Nitish Kumar has been drawing about 5 per cent of Muslim votes. In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, when Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) contested in alliance with the Left parties, they cornered 23.5 per cent of Muslim votes. JDU contested the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections in alliance with the BJP and got 6 per cent and 12 per cent of Muslim votes, respectively.
In the 2015 Bihar Assembly election, JDU and RJD allied to take on the BJP. They got 80 per cent of the state's Muslim votes. Before the 2020 election, Nitish Kumar switched sides. This time, he got just 5 per cent Muslim votes. In the 2015 polls, JDU fielded seven Muslim candidates and five won. In 2020, it fielded 11 Muslim candidates; none won. JDU had seven MLAs in Seemanchal after the 2015 polls; this dropped to three in 2020.
The RJD-Congress Mahagathbandhan got 80 per cent of Muslim votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and 87 per cent in the 2024 election. In the Assembly polls, JDU-RJD got 80 per cent of Muslim votes in 2015. When they parted ways and contested the 2020 polls separately, the RJD alliance got 76 per cent of Muslim votes.
Muslim Representation In Assembly
In 2010, the number of Muslim MLAs in Bihar Assembly stood at 19. This climbed to 24 in 2015, when JDU and RJD joined hands. The number dropped to 19 again in 2020, when they faced off.
In 2020, eight out of 18 RJD Muslim candidates won, and four out of 12 Congress candidates won. The other seven Muslim MLAs were from BSP, CPI-ML and Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM. While four of AIMIM's MLAs later switched to RJD, 2020 showed that Muslims took a chance wherever they got it.
