The Mahagathbandan faces an existential challenge ahead of the 2025 Bihar election with the Congress apparently hesitant to back Tejashwi Yadav from its ally, the Rashtriya Janata Dal, as a Chief Minister candidate.
The 2025 Bihar Assembly election is just months away and the main opposition alliance - the Mahagathbandan, which is basically the Congress and the RJD - has its work cut out to defeat the ruling pair of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's JDU and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP.
With that in mind, the Congress' apparent continuing reluctance to back senior RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav - the son of party patriarch Lalu Prasad Yadav and a two-time former Deputy Chief Minister - as the Mahagathbandan chief ministerial candidate has raised eyebrows.
Bihar's 'grand alliance' was formed in 2015, more, possibly, out of necessity than claims to ideological unity. In its current avatar - post Nitish Kumar's January 2024 flip-flop, when he dumped the alliance and returned to the BJP's side - the RJD has been the dominant force.
That fact has been underlined by the results of the two most recent elections in the state - the 2024 federal election, in which Tejashwi Yadav's party won four seats to the Congress' three, and the 2020 state poll, in which the RJD was the single-largest party with 71 of 243 seats.
The Congress - reeling from a string of losses to the BJP in state and federal elections over the past decade - has been relegated to the role of a junior partner, much like in Tamil Nadu, where the party has played second fiddle to Chief Minister MK Stalin's DMK in the past three elections.
However, unlike in Tamil Nadu, in Bihar the Congress is trying to break free from the 'junior partner' tag, boosted by senior leader Rahul Gandhi's sustained campaigns across the state.
The RJD has made its position clear - Tejashwi Yadav is the party's chief ministerial candidate.
Tejashwi Yadav will be the RJD' chief ministerial face in the Bihar election (File).
The Congress, the subtext therefore says, can either get with the programme or leave.
Does Congress Have Votes To Go Solo?
Not really.
In the 2020 state election the party contested 70 seats and won just 19.
The RJD contested 144 and won 75.
The alliance lost the election by 12 seats.
The hugely disparate conversion rates - 27 per cent to 52 per cent - have often been red-flagged by the state party as a big reason for that narrow loss.
The Congress, though, has argued its candidates were "set up to fail" and blamed the RJD for not extending grassroots support and allotting 'difficult-to-win' seats to the larger party.
And it wants 'respectable and winnable' seats this time to remain allied, sources said.
The situation, i.e., the disparity in performance between the two parties, was evident in last year's federal election too, in which 40 parliamentary seats were in play. The Mahagathbandan was trounced - it won nine seats, campaigning as the INDIA bloc, to the BJP-led NDA's 30.
The RJD won four and polled over 22 per cent of the votes.
The Congress got three and only nine per cent of the votes.
This has led to RJD expressing frustration at the Congress' 'overestimation' of its strength.
Nevertheless, the Congress reportedly remains insistent it can contest this election on its own, and its unwillingness, at this time, to back the RJD, indicates it wants to do just that.
As an aside, the Congress' inability to play nicely with state/regional parties has made headlines over the past few years, and has often played its part in a big BJP win.
A good example of this is the 2023 Madhya Pradesh Assembly election and the spat with Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party over six of the state's 230 seats. The Congress' subsequent defeat provoked caustic comments from other allies about not working with friendly parties.
Can Congress Win Without RJD?
The Congress reportedly has reservations over what it sees as a 'one-dimensional' campaign of the RJD, which is based on caste factors and, particularly, the Muslim-Yadav base.
It wants to broaden the Mahagathbandan's appeal and project a more modern and inclusive image, which is why Rahul Gandhi has made frequent trips - seven in the last six months - to Bihar, with the focus on Dalits and issues of importance to the community.
The Congress believes Rahul Gandhi's visits to Bihar will help it get more votes (File).
But this has made the RJD anxious, since it is seen as poaching its voter base.
Congress leaders in Bihar have also argued they need to contest on issues important to the party as a whole, such as employment, education, and secularism, and so attract urban voters who feel alienated from both the RJD's caste politics and BJP's Hindutva focus.
A Mahjong Effect?
The Congress, meanwhile, is also aware that it cannot be seen as too accepting of a junior role, of scraps in seats and at the decision-making table, since this weakens its position when negotiating with other state allies, including the DMK in Tamil Nadu.
The refusal, so far, to endorse Tejashwi Yadav may therefore also be a strategic signal to allies - that the Congress is unwilling to play an increasingly weak second fiddle.
So, what can the Congress do now?
Either agree, again, to be the RJD's junior partner or bargain hard, knowing that this might leave the opposition alliance in tatters, and give the JDU-BJP a big boost, months before voting.
And all of this does not factor in the role of Left parties that are part of the Mahagathbandan alliance. These have, so far, remained silent. They are not seen as having any objection to Tejashwi Yadav as the Chief Minister, but they are watching the Congress' moves closely.
If the Congress decides to break free from the RDJ's 'shackles', it might find support from smaller parties, including the Left, unhappy with both the RJD and the BJP (and JDU).
NDTV is now available on WhatsApp channels. Click on the link to get all the latest updates from NDTV on your chat.
