As Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares to address a mega rally at Kolkata's iconic Brigade Parade Ground on March 14, the BJP is fine-tuning its political strategy for West Bengal, attempting to consolidate the gains it made in 2019 and 2021 while navigating new political flashpoints such as the controversy over the revision of electoral rolls.
The party is also signalling that its manifesto will promise a stronger welfare and development package for the state to counter the cash support schemes offered by the TMC government.
"With examples like Bihar and Maharashtra, where women got substantial support and continue to get it, people know we deliver on what we promise," a senior BJP leader said.
The party leadership is also clear that this time it does not want to overwhelm its campaign by going after every seat, especially given the advantage the TMC enjoys among minority voters. Instead, the BJP plans a more strategic and Bangla-centred approach towards Hindu voters, combining welfare promises with messaging around better law and order and economic opportunities.
The Prime Minister's rally comes after the completion of nine Parivartan Yatras across the state and is expected to serve as the formal launchpad for the BJP's next phase of political mobilisation in Bengal. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had last addressed a rally at the same venue on March 7, 2021, ahead of the previous Assembly elections, when the BJP mounted its most aggressive challenge yet to the ruling TMC.
Since then, the party has been taking stock of what worked and what did not. Senior leaders such as Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who has been closely monitoring the party's campaign in the state, along with leaders in charge of Bengal, including Bhupender Yadav, Amit Malviya, Biplab Deb and Sunil Bansal, have been involved in crafting a multi-pronged campaign that combines organisational consolidation, social coalitions and a sharper narrative against the Mamata Banerjee government.
Learning from 2021
The BJP's growth in the state over the last decade remains central to its confidence. From winning just three seats in the Assembly before 2021, the party jumped to 77 seats in the last election, emerging as the principal opposition to the TMC. Party leaders say the next challenge is to convert those gains in vote share into a broader geographical spread.
There was, however, a setback in the 2024 general election, when the party won 12 seats in the state, down from the 18 it secured in 2019.
A senior BJP leader said the party's vote share remained relatively steady even in 2024 and that several lessons had been drawn from the 2021 Assembly campaign. One key takeaway was the over-reliance on leaders who had defected from the TMC before the polls.
"There was a large exodus of leaders from the TMC to the BJP before the 2021 elections. But we realised that in Bengal, elections are ultimately driven by cadres on the ground. The TMC functions like a tightly controlled syndicate structure, so we are not fighting just a political party but an entrenched nexus," the leader said.
The BJP has also made representations to the Election Commission seeking greater deployment of security forces and stronger monitoring at polling booths to ensure voters are not prevented from casting their ballots, something the party alleges has happened in the past.
Mapping the State
According to the BJP's internal political assessment, the state is being viewed through three key political zones.
The northern belt includes Darjeeling, Alipurduar, Siliguri, Jalpaiguri and Cooch Behar, extending to Malda South. This region has been an area where the BJP has steadily built support among tea garden workers, Rajbanshi voters and other communities.
The central belt stretching from Purulia to Howrah-Hoogly, comprising BJP strongholds such as the undivided Medinipur and Bardhaman region, has also seen a gradual expansion of BJP support over the last two election cycles.
But the real challenge lies in the southern stretch, which includes areas of the old Kolkata Presidency region comprising constituencies from the North and South 24 Parganas. Here, the BJP has been working to consolidate support among Hindu refugees who fled religious persecution in Bangladesh, Matua and Namasudra voters, communities that have emerged as an important social base for the party.
Party leaders say the near sweep of these districts by the TMC in past elections continues to pose a major hurdle. Several senior TMC leaders, including Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and party national general secretary Abhishek Banerjee, contest from constituencies in this region, including Bhabanipur and Diamond Harbour.
At the same time, the BJP recognises that large parts of the state remain politically difficult terrain. Around 56 seats in the greater Kolkata region, including North 24 Parganas and South 24 Parganas, along with about 35 seats in Malda and Murshidabad districts, have a sizeable Muslim population where the TMC traditionally enjoys a strong advantage.
"Those (Malda and Murshidabad) are areas where the TMC has historically had an edge. But outside those belts, the BJP already has more than 35 per cent vote share in almost all assembly constituencies. Our focus is on building on that base," a senior leader said.
Minority Math and Voter Roll Row
The Muslim vote continues to be a decisive factor in Bengal's electoral politics. In several districts, including Murshidabad, Malda and parts of North and South 24 Parganas, Muslim voters form a significant share of the electorate and have largely backed the TMC in recent elections. Analysts say even small shifts in voting patterns in these constituencies could influence the overall electoral outcome.
Against this backdrop, the controversy surrounding the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls has added a new political dimension. The exercise, aimed at updating voter lists and verifying entries, has been criticised by the TMC, which has alleged that it could lead to large-scale deletion of voters in minority dominated areas.
Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has accused the BJP of attempting to influence the electoral process through administrative means. The BJP has rejected the charge and defended the revision exercise as a routine process carried out by the Election Commission to ensure accurate voter lists.
Within the BJP, there is also a growing emphasis on refining its messaging. Unlike the 2021 campaign, where Ram Navami processions became a visible part of political mobilisation, the party now appears keen to foreground Bengali cultural symbols and icons more prominently.
Prime Minister Modi's recent speeches in the state have begun with invocations such as "Jai Ma Kali," signalling an attempt to blend Hindu consolidation with a stronger regional cultural appeal.
Urban voter trends are another factor the party is studying closely. According to BJP leaders, the party saw an increase in vote share in several urban pockets during the 2024 general elections and hopes to expand that advantage in the upcoming Assembly contest.
