- Upper Assam comprises nine districts and holds 35 of Assam's 126 assembly seats
- The region is ethnically diverse, with Tea Tribes and indigenous groups influencing votes
- BJP gained dominance post-2016, winning 23 seats in 2021, while Congress declined
Assam is geographically divided into five distinct regions: Barak Valley, Central Assam, North Assam, Lower Assam, and Upper Assam. Each of these zones carries its own political and demographic identity. Of the state's 35 districts, nine - Charaideo, Dibrugarh, Dhemaji, Golaghat, Jorhat, Lakhimpur, Majuli, Sivasagar, and Tinsukia - fall within Upper Assam. The region accounts for 35 (earlier 34) of Assam's 126 assembly constituencies and is considered an electoral bellwether for the state.
Upper Assam holds a unique mix of ethnic communities and socio-political histories that often determine the outcome of elections in Assam. The Ahom, Mising, Sonowal-Kachari, Tea Tribe communities, and other indigenous groups exert substantial influence over voting patterns, frequently swinging electoral fortunes. Muslims, who constitute 34 per cent of the state's population according to the 2011 Census, account for only a single-digit share (just over 7 per cent) in this region.
Historically, Upper Assam, particularly the Ahom heartland, served as a stronghold of Assamese nationalism and was once the backbone of the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). However, this began to change rapidly after 2016, when the BJP replaced the AGP as the dominant political force in the region.
The Congress, once a significant force in Upper Assam, suffered a major setback in the 2021 assembly elections, winning only five of the then 34 constituencies. Their decline, however, began in 2016, while the BJP simultaneously registered massive gains in the region.
A major source of the BJP's electoral strength in Upper Assam has been its support among tea garden workers - one of the region's largest and most influential voting blocs. In 2021, the BJP won 23 out of the 34 seats in the region, while the AGP secured five. The Congress managed to win five seats, but two of its MLAs - from Mariani (Jorhat) and Thowra (Sivasagar), later switched to the BJP. Both seats that the Congress won in 2021 were secured by margins of less than 2,500 votes. The Sibsagar seat was won by Akhil Gogoi as an independent candidate; he later formed the Raijor Dal, which is part of the Assam Sanyukta Morcha (ASM) alliance in this election.
Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF has never had a significant presence in Upper Assam due to the region's very small Muslim population. In the 2021 assembly election, the AIUDF - despite being part of the Congress-led Mahajot - did not contest a single seat here. Historically too, the AIUDF has not been a notable force in this region (see Table 2).
A look at Table 2 shows that the region has transformed into a more bipolar contest than a decade ago. In 2001 and 2006, other parties together captured close to 20 percent of the vote in Upper Assam, but this declined to 13 per cent in 2011 and dropped to just over 7 per cent in 2021.
This time, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and the Jai Bharat Party (JBP) have begun contesting seats in Tea Tribe dominated areas. It will be interesting to observe whether this alliance gains meaningful traction among Tea Tribe communities, a demographic that has largely backed the BJP since 2014. Recently, the Assam government has begun granting land pattas to tea garden workers living in labour lines and has provided 3 per cent reservation in Grade 3 and 4 posts for Tea Tribe and adivasi communities under the OBC category. However, the long-standing demand for Scheduled Tribes (ST) status, as many Tea Tribe communities trace their origin to tribal belts of Jharkhand and Odisha, remains unfulfilled.
Upper Assam has frequently been the epicentre of political agitations in the state. The anti-CAA protests, for instance, led to the rise of leaders such as Akhil Gogoi and Lurinjyoti Gogoi.
As the state heads toward the 2026 elections, youth sentiment continues to emerge as a critical factor. Issues such as the Zubeen Garg case have contributed to visible anger among young voters. However, many young voters face a dilemma: on one hand, they feel the government has not delivered justice in the Zubeen Garg case as promised; on the other hand, they acknowledge the government's significant achievements in infrastructure development, welfare schemes like Orunodoi (benefiting women), and scholarships for students, especially girls. The government's provision of thousands of jobs during its last tenure has also created a substantial beneficiary base, which may dilute the emotional appeal of the "Justice for Zubeen Garg" movement at least in the electoral context. Recently, the state government extended the term of the judicial commission led by Soumitra Saikia.
