Analysis: Why The Shadow Of Separatism Lingers In Punjab

The threat of separatism has not fully disappeared from Punjab. This is evident from the fact that, despite 30 years of recession of insurgency, people of Punjab chose two Khalistan separatists -- jailed Amritpal Singh and former PM India Gandhi's assassin's son Sarabjit Singh Khalsa, to elect from the Khadoor Sahib and Faridkot Lok Sabha constituencies. Adding to their numbers, rebel Akali Dal MLA Manpreet Ayali also recently joined them.

Five reasons, including historical grievances, socio-economic distress, debt trap, geopolitical dynamics and Institutional Delivery Deficits, have kept the threat of separatism alive. Punjab has learned new lessons from the insurgency, which peaked between 1984 and 1995. The state and its people bounced back and made an international mark. We have seen Punjabis moving abroad, and some popular names which were born when the insurgency was either being silenced or was over include Sidhu Moosewala, Simranjit Kaur, Shubman Gill and Harmanpreet Kaur.

In other words, while mainstream Punjab remains deeply focused on day-to-day economic survival, migration, and development, historical grievances continue to spark separatism. Historical vulnerabilities get triggered whenever there is frustration. Some say Punjab is sitting on a sleeping volcano fuelled by issues like the farmer agitation, release of jailed militants who completed their jail terms, extrajudicial killings, government crackdowns or human rights violations, sacrilege, or debt trap. What to talk about the law and order situation and human rights violations, Punjab's gangsters, even the cops like Gurinderjit Singh Nagra, formerly the Station House Officer (SHO), also figure on the FBI's wanted list.

Historical Grievances

Punjab's historical grievances trace back to 1966 when Haryana and Himachal areas were separated under the Punjab Reorganisation Act. Punjab's claims on Chandigarh and river waters, including the SYL issue, have been kept alive by the politicians. However, Operation Blue Star, besides the anti-Sikh riots in 1984, continue to be evoked to stir a sense of 'religious injustice and identity protection'. Radicals often exploit this public angst to question governance and pitch separatism as a solution.

The perceived inadequacy of justice has also sustained the grievance. Though the convictions for some high-profile accused have taken place, it took decades, which institutionalised a feeling of systemic neglect. The power of narrative continues even after three decades. Sikh organisations do not count decades of militancy and counter-insurgency merely as history but have kept it alive through anniversaries such as Ghallughara (holocaust), regional music, social media, films and literature. Films like Satluj, Punjab 1984, Hawayein, 47 to 84, Jogi and Dharam Yudh Morcha have created a parasocial relationship or empathic engagement among the Punjabis.

Socio-Economic Distress

Punjab's socioeconomic distress stems from the stagnation of its historically prosperous agrarian economy.

The wheat-paddy monoculture has become unsustainable due to groundwater depletion and soil health issues.

Agriculture registered a negative growth of -2.5 per cent for the 2025-26 fiscal year, indicating a volatile reliance on traditional crop cycles.

Massive reliance on tube-well irrigation, heavily incentivised by free power subsidies, has pushed the state's water table down to critical levels, risking long-term desertification. This has also cost dear to the state exchequer, which spends a whopping Rs 15,550 crore on power subsidy, nearly 5.97 per cent of Punjab's total budget outlay.

The distress has escalated not only the fiscal crisis but also the social challenges. Rising farm input costs, coupled with stagnant yields, have trapped small and marginal farmers in a cycle of institutional and informal debt, driving persistent rural distress. A landmark study conducted by three top government universities, including Punjab Agriculture University, Guru Nanak Dev University and Punjabi University, recorded 16,606 farmer and farm labourer deaths between 2000 and 2015. A follow-up study conducted by Punjab Agriculture University in six districts, including Sangrur, Bathinda and Mansa, recorded 9,291 deaths between 2000 and 2018.

The decades of agrarian crises resulted from monoculture, which led to a rise in unemployment -- often linked with frustration, loss of self-worth, stress and higher risk of mental health issues. Punjab's drug problem is also linked to unemployment, which results in public angst.

Punjab lags behind its neighbours, Haryana and Himachal, in economic metrics. Punjab's per capita income is roughly Rs 1.95 lakh-Rs 2.27 lakh, compared to Rs 3.25 lakh-Rs 4.04 lakh in Haryana and Rs 2.83 lakh in Himachal.

"Punjab's unemployment stands at 5.3 per cent, which exceeds the national average of 3.1 per cent. There are more unemployed in rural areas, i.e. 22.5 per cent, compared to the urban unemployed, which stands at 14.8 per cent. No employment opportunities are available to the semi-literate youths of Punjab. Industrialisation was limited to urban areas, and no such investment was attracted in rural areas, which led to unemployment," says Dr Varinder Sharma, Director, Institute for Development and Communication, PU, Chandigarh.

Debt Trap

Failure to create adequate amenities, educational and health infrastructure, is directly linked to the state's debt. Punjab spends up to 25 per cent of its revenue to pay loans and interest, which has become worrisome. The state's outstanding debt has crossed Rs 4.17 lakh crore and may mount up to  Rs 4.48 lakh crore by 2027.

The much-awaited transition from an age-old agrarian economy to a manufacturing or service- driven industry has failed to take off. The manufacturing sector contributes only 29 per cent to the GSDP. Many industrial sectors are facing stagnation due to geographical disadvantages and competitive tax incentives given to neighbouring Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

Brain drain is another side effect of growing unemployment in Punjab. A study conducted by Punjab Agriculture University has found that over 73 per cent of the youths who left Punjab after 2016 were from rural areas. The global Punjabi diaspora is estimated to be up to 15 million. A large number of unemployed youths have been compelled to migrate abroad by selling their land.

Geopolitical Dynamics

The hardliner immigrants (Khalistanis) have tried to build an anti-India narrative by framing the Indian government as an oppressive and anti-minority regime. By amplifying historical grievances and seeking asylum on false grounds that they were facing a threat to their life in India, they continue to mobilise the Sikh diaspora. Declared terror organisations like Sikhs for Justice even launched failed referendum attempts. Public demonstrations are common whenever an Indian dignitary visits any foreign country. Sacrilege of non-Sikh temples and control of Sikh places of worship are common.

The separatist elements, through fake human rights campaigns and legal advocacy, try to build false narratives against India. In the Hardeep Singh Nijjar killing case, the Canadian government and Khalistan elements successfully built their narrative accusing India of killing the separatist. Former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had ignited a severe diplomatic crisis by making credible allegations linking the Indian government to the Nijjar case. The Canadian government recently said there was no evidence linking the Indian government to the Nijjar killing, which was, in fact, masterminded by gangsters.

For decades, the Canadian government was not ready to accept that Khalistanis were involved in the Kanishka Bombing incident on June 23, 1985, which killed 329 innocent people. These terrorists who placed a bomb on the plane are regarded as 'Heroes' by the terror groups based in Canada.

Intelligence reports say that many unemployed youths from Punjab are lured in the name of jobs abroad and then later absorbed into radicalised diaspora networks. The radical elements exploit the liberal legal systems of Western Countries, considered a safe haven for transnational crime nexus,  by framing extremism as political dissent. The social media campaigns and protests against Indian missions abroad or storming Indian embassies are part of the anti-India propaganda launched by extremist groups.

Political Opportunism

The deepening political discontent in Punjab stems from unresolved religious, agrarian, and economic fault lines. Frequent shifts in political alliances, coupled with mutual accusations of corruption, have led voters to perceive the political class as self-serving and detached from public welfare, severely undermining civic trust and dignity.

As the mainstream political parties like the Congress and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) fail to deliver, the voters in Punjab are disillusioned. The entrenchment of freebie politics, agrarian distress and rising unemployment not only resulted in a sharp drop in rural local body voter turnout but also favoured independent and radical figures winning the elections in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The tendency of politicians has been short-term gains rather than addressing the root structural issues, alongside inefficiency in public service delivery, timely justice and police reforms.

Interestingly, while the Shiromani Akali Dal was seen arranging a screening of the banned 'Satluj' made on the life of Jaswant Sing Khalra, his wife Paramjit Kaur Khalra had publicly said that the party did not help the family get justice when it was in power.

Similarly, Union Minister Ravneet Singh Bittu only raised the issue of targeted Hindu killings during the insurgency after he joined the BJP. The issue was never raised when he was in Congress.