Analysis: Why Radical Elements Could Play Spoiler In 2027 Punjab Elections

Picture this. Two Khalistani ideologues -- Amritpal Singh and Sarabjit Singh Khalsa -- won two Lok Sabha seats with 38 per cent and 29 per cent vote share vote share in 2024, and made their presence felt in 18 assembly constituencies.

These results show that separatist elements are rising and will play the spoiler in the 2027 Punjab elections. This also shows that Khalistani elements successfully diverted public attention and wove a political narrative revolving around three core issues: religious identity, absence of centralised leadership (panthic void) and agrarian and religious crisis.

Conversions, Religious identity and Sacrilege

Once again, religion and religious identity have taken centrestage in Punjab. Rising sacrilege cases and religious conversions are a primary concern for the hardliners, Shri Akal Takht and SGPC. Official figures say there are over 3.5 lakh Christians, mostly converted Dalits. Unofficial sources put their number between 10 to 15 percent as converted Dalits on paper still enjoy their Sikh or Hindu status to benefit from reservation and other welfare schemes. The Dalit community, which forms nearly 32 per cent of the total population, is politically significant as a vote share.

The issue of the high number of unsolved sacrilege cases is also being used by the radicals to create public angst against mainstream political parties, including the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party. The police between 2015 and 2026 had registered over 459 sacrilege-related FIRs out of which only 44 cases resulted in conviction. While 83 FIRs were cancelled, 99 cases resulted in acquittals, 131 cases were being investigated, and 102 remain untraced.

While the ruling AAP's attempt to provide a solution by enacting 'The Jaagat Jot Sri Guru Granth Sahib Satkar (Amendment) Act, 2026' backfired and annoyed the highest Sikh temporal authority Shri Akal Takht, Shiromani Akali Dal faced the ire of hardliners and Sikh bodies for allegedly using force against the peaceful protesters demanding action in sacrilege cases. The 2015 Behbal Kalan and Kotkapura police firing cases destroyed SAD's voter base and led to a loss of authority within the Sikh Panth, creating a void.

By presenting themselves as protectors of religious identity, the radical elements try to grab public attention. Moral policing and enforcement are part of their gimmicks to attract attention. Videos showing people selling and consuming tobacco being beaten up by radical elements have gone viral on social media. Some videos also show Nihangs storming the venues of religious ceremonies organised by non Sikhs. Some Christian congregations were also attacked in the past. The issue of conversions is also on the cards of radicals and the BJP. BJP leaders claim they have reconnected approximately 8,500 individuals with Sikh roots.

Political And Panthic Void

The 2024 Lok Sabha election results show that the panthic void left by Shiromani Akali Dal and failure of other mainstream political parties like the Congress and AAP in addressing the grassroots despair, including the agrarian crisis and the pervasive drug epidemic, was being addressed by the radical elements.

Jailed Khalistani supporter Amritpal Singh secured a 38.62 per cent vote share in 2024 Khadoor Sahib Lok Sabha constituency, which comprises nine assembly constituencies: Jandiala, Tarn Taran, Khem Karan, Patti, Khadoor Sahib, Baba Bakala, Kapurthala, Sultanpur Lodhi, and Zira.

Another Khalistani, the son of Indira Gandhi's assassin Beant Singh, Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa, bagged a 29.5 per cent vote share in the Faridkot Lok Sabha constituency, which comprises nine assembly constituencies: Nihal Singhwala, Bhagha Purana, Moga, Dharamkot, Gidderbaha, Faridkot, Kotkapura, Jaitu, and Rampura Phul. This means both radicals influence 18 constituencies. Manpreet Ayali, sitting Akali Dal rebel MLA also joined their SAD (Waris Punjab De) recently.

Out of a total two crore, 2,14,61,739 to be precise, 1.36 crore voters live in rural Punjab and account for nearly 63 per cent of the electorate. The primary election issues in rural Punjab this time are agrarian stress, drug overdose deaths and unsolved sacrilege cases besides the religious conversions and protection of religious identity. Majority of the rural vote share i.e. 42 percent was bagged by AAP in 2022 followed by Congress 22.98 per cent , Shiromani Akali Dal and BSP 18.4 per cent and BJP 6.60 percent.

Akali Dal's vote share is on a downward spiral from 37.64 per cent in 2017, it slipped to 25.2 percent in 2017 and further dropped to 18.4 per cent in 2022. The party won one seat each in Majha, Malwa and Doaba. In other words, SAD's loss is a gain for the radical elements, which have elevated the risk of competitive radicalization, snatching the mainstream narrative and then twisting it to fit their own narrative to woo the rural vote bank which is traditionally religious-minded.

The Floating Vote

The floating vote in Punjab is estimated between 15 to 20 per cent. This community of voters consistently pivot away from traditional party lines based on various issues, including candidate profile and anti-incumbency.

In 2022, the Aam Aadmi Party grabbed the state's entire floating vote share in the name of a change (Badlav). The massive swing came from traditional political parties Congress and Shiromani Akali Dal.

"This community of voters is disillusioned and has always been against traditional political parties. They think the third force, as they did in 2022, may bring change. This section of voters exhibit a deep cognitive dissonance between the ground realities and democratic ideals. They, infact, create performance anxiety among the mainstream political parties," says Prof Pramod Kumar, Chairperson, Institute for Development and Communication (IDC), and Centre for Advanced Studies in Social Science and Management (CASSM), Chandigarh.