With less than a year left for the assembly elections, Congress' new Uttar Pradesh in-charge, Rajendra Pal Gautam, has injected a new twist into state politics by demanding 'equal partnership' in seat-sharing with the Samajwadi Party (SP). He didn't stop at making the demand. He also praised Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati, triggering speculation across political circles that the Congress has kept its options open should its alliance with the Akhilesh Yadav-led party not materialise.
Seat Mathematics And Rising Ambitions
According to reports, the Congress may demand 150 seats in its proposed alliance with the Samajwadi Party. However, Yadav's party has indicated that it might concede no more than 70-80 seats. The back-and-forth has made agreeing on seat-sharing difficult.
The new Congress in-charge's demand is being seen as a strategy to pressure the Samajwadi Party.
Logic Behind Congress' Demand For Seats
Congress leaders argue that even during the 2017 assembly elections, when the Samajwadi Party was in power, Congress bagged 105 seats under the alliance (contested on 114 seats, including friendly fights). Therefore, their claim should be even stronger this time. This argument is further bolstered by Congress' impressive performance in UP during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, in which the party won 6 of the 17 seats it contested, yielding a strike rate of 35%.
A Glance At Statistics From Previous Elections
The electoral history of the 403 assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh proves that the dynamics of alliance politics shift with every election.
2017 Assembly Election: 'Two Boys of UP'
Nearly a decade ago, under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav, the Congress and SP jointly contested elections behind the 'Two Boys of UP' campaign. At that time, SP fielded candidates on 311 seats while Congress contested 114 seats. 'Friendly fight' took place between the two on a few seats. However, this alliance failed to withstand the fierce pro-BJP wave and collapsed after a crushing defeat.
2019 and 2022: Parting Ways
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the SP allied with the BSP and RLD, while the Congress entered the electoral battlefield alone. Similarly, in the 2022 assembly elections, the two parties failed to come together. The SP contested with RLD and SBSP, while Congress contested alone. While SP managed to increase its vote share and seats in 2022, compared to 2017, it lost the elections.
On the other hand, the Congress performance was highly disappointing, shrinking to a mere 2 seats, with 387 of its candidates losing their deposits.
2024 Lok Sabha Election: A Successful Comeback
After a hiatus of nearly seven years, both parties rejoined forces under the 'INDIA' block for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and this experiment proved highly successful. The SP won 37 seats, while the Congress secured 6 seats, playing a pivotal role in halting the BJP's winning streak in the state.
The Way Forward
The results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections have undoubtedly provided a fresh lease of life to the Congress, keeping its morale high. However, on the ground, the Samajwadi Party possesses an immensely strong organisational framework as the primary opposition party.
Will Akhilesh Yadav accept the Congress' demand for an 'equal partnership,' or will this friction create a rift in opposition unity? The seat-sharing negotiations in the coming months will ultimately chart the future course of politics in Uttar Pradesh.
