The death of Ajit Pawar – the Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister was in a plane crash Wednesday morning – prompts the question – who replaces him at the helm of the 'real' Nationalist Congress Party.
Political parties in India tend to be run by leaders rather than committees and individual charisma rather than organisational authority, and the NCP is no different.
Established and nurtured by the 'grand old man' of Maharashtra politics, Sharad Pawar, whose emotional capital was underlined in May 2023 – he offered to quit to stop his nephew drifting to the BJP, only to be shouted back by an adoring cadre – there has always been a Pawar in charge.
Even when there were two NCPs it was clear the Pawar clan held the reigns.
But there is now a real possibility that may no longer be the case.
Ownership of the 'real' NCP's post-Ajit Pawar phase is a squabble that will soon break ground as lawmakers jostle for control – for, as tragic as the death was, there is still a government to be run, and ministerial berths, including, potentially, that of a Deputy Chief Minister, to be filled.
And two distinct power centres already in play.
In the first corner is the clan itself, starting with Ajit Pawar's wife – Sunetra Pawar.
She will command, at least for the immediate future, enormous emotional and sympathetic support, even from those who may not normally vote for the NCP or for Ajit Pawar's brand. She is also the logical option – if one takes the dynastic view of things – to succeed her husband.
Sunetra Pawar. Photo: Facebook
But Sunetra Pawar is also a political newbie; yes, she contested the 2024 Lok Sabha election (which she lost) and is a Rajya Sabha MP, but neither gives her enough street cred to command the fealty of grizzled and streetwise politicians like Chhagan Bhujbal or Sunil Tatkare.
Also in this corner are Ajit Pawar's sons – Parth and Jay.
Both, however, are seen as even less realistic an option than Sunetra.
Parth Pawar was projected as a future leadership figure in the 2019 Lok Sabha election; he contested from Maval in Pune district but was thumped by the Shiv Sena's Shrirang Barne. Pawar junior did well enough, polling a little over five lakh votes, but Barne amassed well over 7.2 lakh.
Parth Pawar
Since then, Parth Pawar has faded somewhat from active politics and a return, however emotion that might instill among voters, is unlikely given the raft of legal cases he faces.
His younger brother Jay Pawar is possibly the weakest of the three Ajit Pawar family options.
Over the past years Jay has, in fact, focused more on the family's business and, it seems, he is happier in the boardroom, though there have been reports of engagement with villages in the family stronghold of Baramati, possibly as an attempt to keep him politically relevant.
Jay Pawar
But the fact is Jay has never contested an election – at least his mother and brother have, even though they flopped – and that could count against him.
In the second are Ajit Pawar NCP strongmen like Bhujbal, Tatkare, and Praful Patel.
Patel is now perhaps the Ajit Pawar NCP's most senior leader.
A former union minister and a seasoned political strategist – Praful Patel was Sharad Pawar's go-to negotiator in Delhi before the big split – he is the first realistic leadership option on this list.
As a veteran of parliamentary politics and with contacts in the national capital, he could pick up and potentially expand on Ajit Pawar's dreams for his NCP. But he, many could also argue, lacks the stature Ajit Pawar had among party workers and voters, making a long-term post unlikely.
Praful Patel
Patel could, however, be an ideal caretaker for the NCP as it looks to re-ground itself.
Sunil Tatkare, a grassroots leader like Ajit Pawar, he has experience in political strategy and building a party from the ground up; he did that in Raigad district, establishing Ajit Pawar's NCP brand. And he also has ministerial experience, having served as Maharashtra's Water Resources Minister.
But, like Patel, he isn't really seen as someone with statewide authority, which could become an issue if factions within the party start to rebel.
Sunil Tatkare
And then there is the wildcard option.
Many political observers might see this as the most logical sequence of events – NCP lawmakers cajoled into deserting Sharad Pawar for his nephew, lured perhaps by promises of cash and high-profile positions, return to the fold after the 'pied pipers' demise.
Could that happen? Could Ajit Pawar's NCP merge from whence it came, to Sharad Pawar's side, or more accurately, with a party now led by his cousin, Supriya Sule.
Sharad Pawar (L) and Ajit Pawar
It could. Sharad and Ajit Pawar buried the hatchet for the Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad municipal elections earlier this month. The results were shockingly poor, and the alliance itself was the result of Ajit being sidelined within the BJP-led Mahayuti, but the framework remains.
