Polls Soon, BJP Has A Chirag Paswan-Shaped Problem In Bihar

As the BJP-JDU alliance preps for the upcoming Bihar Assembly polls, tackling the RJD-Congress campaign is only one of its challenges. An equally big task is to keep NDA's house in order by finalising a seat-sharing agreement with partners. And one ally who will be a hard nut to crack is Union Minister and LJP (Ram Vilas) chief Chirag Paswan.

The 42-year-old leader, it is learnt, is bargaining hard to clinch a significant number of seats this time after his party's 5/5 show in Bihar in the Lok Sabha election last year. As part of his posturing to keep pressure on the bigger NDA players, the BJP and JDU, Mr Paswan has publicly criticised the Nitish Kumar government over the state's law and order situation. The friendly fire has made allies such as JDU and Jitan Ram Manjhi's HAM uncomfortable, while the BJP has responded cautiously.

Why BJP Needs Chirag Paswan

Chirag Paswan leads the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas). The LJP, founded by veteran politician and former Union Minister, late Ram Vilas Paswan, split after his death as his son Chirag and brother Pashupati Kumar Paras fought over his legacy. Eventually, Chirag won the battle. The LJP (Ram Vilas) enjoys the support of the Paswans, an influential Dalit community that accounts for 6 per cent of Bihar's population.

In the 2024 general election, Chirag Paswan's party won all five seats it contested, cornering a vote-share of over 6 per cent. In the 2020 Bihar election, held right after Ram Vilas Paswan's death, the undivided LJP went solo. It won one seat, but finished second in nine seats, cornering over 5.6 per cent of the vote share and harming the NDA. The BJP knows Chirag Paswan can cause an even bigger dent this time, and he has been signalling that he may well go solo if his seat-sharing demands are not met.

Chirag Paswan's Demand vs BJP's Offer

According to sources, Mr Paswan has demanded 40 Assembly seats for his party during the seat-sharing negotiations. The BJP has offered him 25 at most, but the young leader has been bargaining hard. The LJP (Ram Vilas) chief is Minister for Food Processing Industries in the Narendra Modi government and may seek a bigger role in the Centre in the future to get more visibility for his party.

The BJP is also mindful that making too many concessions to Chirag Paswan's party may upset its other allies, especially the JDU. Chirag Paswan has a history of trading barbs with Nitish Kumar, and the BJP, which enjoys JDU's support at the Centre, cannot afford to upset its chief.

While Chirag Paswan has not publicly expressed a Chief Minister post wish, he has been positioning himself as a contender for the top job in future. With campaigns such as 'Bihar first, Bihari first' and public outreach programmes like Chirag ka Chaupal, he has been sending a message that he is not just an NDA member, but a formidable political force on his own. The BJP now faces the tough task of managing Chirag Paswan's expectations while not offending the JDU and others in the NDA.

In the 2020 polls, JDU contested 115 out of the total 243 seats, BJP fought 110, and allies Vikassheel Insaan Party and Hindustani Awam Morcha contested 11 and eight seats, respectively. The LJP, which went solo, contested 134 seats.