China Made Dangal A Rs 1,300-Crore Blockbuster. Can Japan Do So For Animal?

For nearly a decade, China was the fantasy jackpot for a handful of Indian films: a place where a certain kind of Hindi social drama or a larger-than-life spectacle could turn into hundreds of crores overnight. But geopolitics, quotas and opaque censorship put an abrupt brake on that run. 

Now, with Japan emerging as a surprisingly receptive and growing window for Indian cinema, producers and distributors are asking whether it can become the next reliable overseas engine, or whether it will remain an episodic, event-driven market that only lights up for a particular film at a particular moment.

How China Built (And Then Closed) The Overnight Wins

China's appetite for a particular strain of Indian cinema produced outsized paydays. The biggest example is Dangal, which became, by far, the top-grossing Indian film in China, collecting roughly Rs 1,305 crore there. 

Films that combined emotional family narratives with social themes: Secret Superstar, Sultan and Bajrangi Bhaijaan, also found strong resonance and produced very healthy receipts (Secret Superstar and others added substantially to the tally). Between 2015 and 2018, eight Indian films together collected about Rs 2,784 crore in China, a period many in Bollywood still call the market's peak era.

Dangal minted Rs 1,305 crore in China.

That golden run was fragile. After the Galwan Valley clashes in mid-2020, political tensions and tightened cultural controls effectively closed the doors for mainstream Bollywood for several years. 

Censorship rules and import quotas, combined with the non-transparent process that routes approvals through state-owned bodies, made it difficult for the industry to rely on China as a predictable revenue stream. 

When approvals did trickle through after 2022, they were selective and limited: Drishyam, Kanaa and later 12th Fail had modest or targeted releases, while South Indian titles such as Maharaja found pockets of success (Maharaja approached the Rs 100 crore mark in China). 

But overall the pipeline thinned: political friction plus an import quota that effectively limits foreign films made China a high-risk, high-entry-barrier market.

Japan, A Different Kind Of Chemistry

Japan has never been a mass market for Bollywood the way China briefly became, but recent years have produced a string of events suggesting the country is more than a niche curiosity. 

The breakthrough in the modern era came from spectacle: RRR and other large-scale South Indian films demonstrated that Japanese audiences will embrace kinetic, emotionally amplified cinema, particularly when it arrives with strong marketing and theatrical backing. 

A poster of RRR.

Japan's theatrical receipts for some Indian films have been meaningful: Rajinikanth's 1995 hit Muthu famously became a cult success in Japan after a 1998 release, grossing about ¥400 million (roughly $3 million at the time) and drawing more than a million viewers, a remarkable feat for a non-NRI, predominantly Japanese audience. 

The earlier Rajinikanth story shows that, with the right champion and marketing, Indian films can find an authentic foothold in Japan.

During a conversation with NDTV, Film exhibitor Akshaye Rathi points to RRR as the modern spark that "blew the lid" off Japan as a market again. 

That was followed by curiosities like Pushpa and Salaar generating interest and convincing Japanese exhibitors to experiment more. The net result: Japan is no longer an entirely closed or indifferent territory; it is a market whose tastes can be cultivated, albeit patiently and strategically.

What Film Exhibitor And Trade Analysts Are Saying?

Distributor Akshaye Rathi is candid about the differences between the two territories. On China and its economics, he explained, "Well, see, you know, the Chinese territory as such has always been very close to foreign films, including Indian. And that's why we hear of Dangal and A Secret Superstar doing what they did. The number of foreign language films, including Indian, that release in China is very, very finite."

He added, "And even out of those, a very few do well. So it's not like China is one of the bigger markets. It's a flash in the pan scenario for any of our films. And even the ones that do well, just about 20 to 25% of the business that's done there comes back to the producers based on the policies that the Shanghai Film Corporation or the Chinese authorities have."

Rathi sees Japan as a market with promise but not an overnight replacement for China.

He shared, "Japan is also a very interesting market, which is growing and becoming relevant because a movie like RRR went and blew the lid, and that's really opened up the market in a big way all over again after what things used to be like for Raj Kapoor Saab's films back in the day. And yes, it's an interesting market. It's a robust market and it's a market that has a lot of potential. But I don't see it becoming as relevant and robust as let's say North America or Europe or United Kingdom or the Middle East as they are, you know, for Indian content. But yes, it definitely showed a lot of promise."

On cultivation and consistency, Rathi adds an important caveat: "As I said, it's RRR that blew the lid for the Japanese market. And since then, they've realised that, okay, there can be scenarios where some of our films can go there and really create a relevant impact at the box office. And that's why they would be a lot more willing to experiment with Indian content. And I hope it continues because any market doesn't turn relevant overnight. It has to be nurtured and cultivated over the years with consistent distribution and marketing happening there. And only when that happens do these markets nurture themselves and become more consistent with their returns."

Trade analyst Taran Adarsh offers a comparable, measured reading.

He said, "Yes, we are expanding the market and not denying that. But at the same time, the market is growing right now. You cannot compare it to China, because China is a huge market. And the returns, if it works, they are huge. But at the moment, China and Japan have markets that cannot be split." 

He stressed content's primacy, adding, "Everything boils down to the content. There are certain stars who have really become popular in Japan or in China, and I think that also works, but eventually it all boils down to the content. There is no particular genre that's working. A good film will work irrespective of the genre."

On whether Japan can scale into a multi-release territory, he is optimistic but cautious: "Well, I think it's a growing market right now. It's just growing right now. Let it bloom completely, and then over a period of time it will happen." 

And on the catalytic effect of hits, he shared, "Yes, definitely. There's a success in any market. It automatically encourages the producers or the distributors to actually go and explore that market."

Numbers Matter

China's box office is enormous in absolute terms - it is a global behemoth that, when it opens, can deliver blockbuster scale. The Dangal phenomenon is the clearest example: Rs 1,305 crore in China transformed that film's global tallies and turned its makers into reference points for the rest of the industry. 

Other significant China performers include Andhadhun (about Rs 333.62 crore), Bajrangi Bhaijaan (Rs 295.76 crore), Hindi Medium (Rs 219.17 crore) and Hichki (Rs 156.66 crore). Those numbers underline why China, whenever it is accessible, remains an alluring revenue frontier.

A still from Andhadhun.

Japan's totals for Indian films have generally been smaller in rupee terms, but can still be meaningful for a focused overseas strategy. 

Rajinikanth's Muthu made roughly ¥400 million ($3 million) in the late 1990s, small relative to China's eventual scale but huge for a Tamil film in Japan at the time. 

The more recent success of RRR (noted for posting strong ¥ figures and enthusiastic fan response) shows that big, visually driven Indian films can register strongly in Japan, even if the absolute upside is lower than China's potential.

In short: China's upside can be oceanic when a film hits; Japan's upside is steadier and more incremental, but arguably easier to nurture with sustained effort and local marketing investment.

The Content Playbook

China's audience historically rewarded socially resonant, family-oriented dramas and films that mirrored public concerns: education, perseverance, and sacrifice. That's why social dramatists such as Aamir Khan found a uniquely attentive audience in China with films like 3 Idiots, PK and Dangal. 

The Aamir Khan factor in China.

By contrast, Japan's audiences have shown a taste for spectacle, kinetic action and stars with charismatic screen presence - the very qualities that powered RRR and Pushpa there. 

But neither market is a simple monoculture: local film critics and exhibitors stress that "content" (not just star wattage or genre) ultimately decides whether a title will find traction.

How Rajinikanth, A Tamil Superstar Conquered (A Corner Of) Japan

Long before pan-India blockbusters and social media fan armies, Rajinikanth quietly achieved something no Indian mainstream star had managed before: he built a genuine, largely non-diaspora fan base in Japan. And it happened almost by accident.

The film at the heart of this unlikely cultural crossover was Muthu, directed by KS Ravikumar and produced by K Balachander's Kavithalayaa. A remake of the Malayalam hit Thenmavin Kombathu, Muthu was a quintessential Rajinikanth entertainer: colourful, dramatic, musical and emotionally charged.

Rajinikanth in a still from Muthu.

In the film, Rajinikanth plays Muthu, a loyal servant deeply devoted to his landlord and friend, Raja Malaiyasimhan (Sarath Babu). The equilibrium between them shifts when a travelling theatre actress, Ranganayaki (Meena), enters their lives. Both men fall in love with her, but she chooses Muthu. 

The narrative expands into a sweeping drama involving identity, inheritance and sacrifice, with Rajinikanth also appearing in a dual role as Muthu's father, a zamindar who renounces wealth to become a wandering ascetic.

On paper, it was a regional Tamil melodrama. In practice, it became a cultural event in Japan.

A Chance Discovery In Singapore

The Japan story began not in Chennai or Tokyo, but in Singapore's Little India district in 1996. Bharathan Kandaswamy, executive director at Kavithalayaa, was browsing DVDs at the Mustafa Centre when he overheard a group of Japanese tourists repeatedly saying one word: "Rajinikanth."

Curious, Kandaswamy edged closer. Every few seconds, the name surfaced again in their conversation. He eventually approached them and offered help. The Japanese visitors revealed they were looking for four Rajinikanth films, including Muthu.

One of those men was Jun Edoki, a Japanese film critic. Edoki purchased the DVD and took it back to Tokyo. He watched it with his wife, without subtitles.

He later recalled being captivated purely by Rajinikanth's charisma and screen presence. The film's emotional directness, stylised performances and unabashed theatricality struck him as refreshing and joyous. They began rewatching portions of it daily.

Edoki became determined to release Muthu theatrically in Japan.

The $1 Deal

Edoki began lobbying distributors in Japan, eventually convincing Atsushi Ichikawa of Xanadeux to consider a release. The challenge lay in acquiring distribution rights.

There was no precedent for a Tamil commercial entertainer in Japan. Kandaswamy had no benchmark to price it. Rather than overcomplicating negotiations, he made a startling decision.

He offered the film's Japanese rights for one dollar.

Rajinikanth in a still from Muthu.

The symbolic gesture was strategic. He asked only that, if the film succeeded, future Kavithalayaa titles be considered for Japan. The Japanese distributors were stunned, accustomed to Hollywood's complex licensing structures, but they agreed.

Thus, in 1998, Muthu was released in Japan under the title Muthu: Odoru Maharaja (Muthu, The Dancing Maharaja).

Perfect Timing During Recession

The timing proved serendipitous. Japan was in economic recession. Consumer spending was down, and optimism was scarce. Cinema, relatively affordable entertainment, offered escape.

Muthu arrived like a burst of colour.

With its elaborate song sequences, emotional highs, flamboyant costumes and Rajinikanth's larger-than-life persona, the film provided exuberant escapism. 

It ran for 23 weeks at Tokyo's Cinema Rise theatre alone, drawing approximately 127,000 viewers there and grossing about $1.7 million at that single location. 

Overall, it reportedly earned around ¥400 million (roughly $3 million) in Japan and attracted over a million viewers nationwide, an extraordinary feat for a Tamil film with no established diaspora base.

Cinema Rise reportedly dubbed it their "Titanic."

Rajinikanth in a still from Muthu.

The success was not accidental. It was engineered with shrewd positioning.

Promotional flyers urged audiences to "Forget about the recession... This is the first page of a pleasant dream." Rajinikanth was marketed as the "Indian Jackie Chan," tapping into Japanese familiarity with Hong Kong action stardom.

Actress Meena travelled to Japan and surprised audiences with an on-stage appearance, delivering three memorised lines in Japanese: "I love Japan. I love the Japanese people. Just see my film three times."

And many did.

Rajinikanth achieved cult status. Japanese fan clubs emerged. Websites were created. Media coverage amplified his mystique. Even then, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh later referenced Rajinikanth's popularity during a speech in Japan's parliament.

Other Tamil films followed. Yejaman was released in Japan as The Dancing Maharaja 2. For a brief period, there was genuine momentum.

However, the wave eventually receded. Changes in Japan's art-house theatre ecosystem and shifting audience tastes reduced space for Indian commercial cinema. Many smaller theatres closed, and the novelty faded.

Will Animal Pass The Test? 

Hot on the heels of this market evolution, Animal, the Ranbir Kapoor-starrer that grossed about Rs 553 crore nett in India and crossed Rs 900 crore worldwide, is set for a dubbed Japanese release on February 13, 2026. 

A violent, controversy-tinged revenge melodrama directed by Sandeep Reddy Vanga, is being watched closely by distributors as a bellwether. 

A still from Animal.

Expectations in industry chatter range from modest to optimistic; some estimates suggest a potential Japan haul in the range of Rs 50-80 crore if the film's tone and spectacle cohere with local appetite and if the release is paired with strong marketing and theatre push.

On the question of what success in Japan would mean, distributor Akshaye Rathi is unequivocal.

He said, "Well, Animal again is a very, very interesting film. Now, how it resonates with the Japanese ethos and sensibilities is a big question mark. But having said that, I mean, purely going by the kind of impact that movies like Pushpa and movies like RRR have had there, I wouldn't be surprised if it really goes and blows the lid in Japan as a market and does really well."

If Animal performs strongly, the ripple effect could be material: Japanese exhibitors would likely greenlight more Indian releases and producers would invest more in localisation and promotion. 

Reacting to this, Rathi shared, "Oh, absolutely. As I said, every market is cultivated and nurtured over time. It doesn't grow overnight. And it will take a certain consistency of Indian films to release in Japan. And not just release, but also to be proactively marketed with our stars going there, with a consistent battery of marketing operating over there, which will popularise Indian cinema. That's how Hollywood conquered the world, right? And made the entire globe its market. And that's something that our Indian films should absolutely do, including in territories like Japan."

Risks, Realities And The Strategic Takeaways

• China remains the prize, but it is unpredictable. When China opens, the payoffs can dwarf other territories, yet the path to entry is governed by politics, quotas and censorship that are outside typical commercial control. As Rathi puts it, China has "very high entry barriers", and the mechanics of how much money returns to producers are complex and often unfavourable.

• Japan is promotable, but it needs cultivation. Unlike China's opaque gatekeeping, Japan's challenge is commercial: you must market aggressively, build relationships with exhibitors, and accept that success will probably be incremental rather than immediate. When large spectacles connect, the upside can be significant and can justify repeated campaigns.

• Content always beats formulas. Both analysts and distributors stress that a good film will find an audience. Stars help open doors, but the content determines whether a market repeats business. Taran Adarsh simply puts it, "Everything boils down to the content... a good film will work irrespective of the genre."

• South Indian cinema has become an important lever. The recent Japan wave is driven largely by pan-India and South Indian titles that blend visuals, action and operatic scale, films that translate better across cultural boundaries for audiences seeking spectacle.

The Bottom Line

China and Japan offer very different plays. China, when accessible, delivers scale; Japan, when cultivated, delivers consistency and growing recognition. The industry's smartest approach is not to declare a single "new China" but to tailor strategy for both - learn the lessons from Rajinikanth's unexpected cult in Japan, chase the social-drama resonance that once made Aamir Khan a phenomenon in China, and treat each country as a distinct ecosystem rather than a simple replacement.

If Animal proves the appetite in Japan is broad enough for more Indian releases, distributors will have one more arrow in their quiver. But even then, expect a patient, promotional rhythm: markets are built, not discovered.