IIT Guwahati Research on Glacial Lakes: Researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Guwahati have identified 492 regions in the Himalayas where glacial lakes are likely to form, according to a new study. These lakes pose a serious risk as they can suddenly collapse, triggering floods that affect densely populated areas located far downstream from the mountains. Such events are known as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs).
The research found that glacial lakes-and consequently GLOFs-do not form randomly. Instead, they are more likely to develop in specific zones of the Eastern Himalayas. The study used a data-driven framework based on 12,924 Google Earth images collected between 2018 and 2022. The research area covered parts of Arunachal Pradesh in India and neighbouring regions of Tibet.
Machine learning (ML) models were combined with geomorphological and topographic features to predict the probability of glacial lake formation (PGLF) in the Eastern Himalayas.
Factors such as neighbouring lakes, cirques, gentle slopes, and retreating glaciers emerged as the most influential predictors. This highlights the critical role of geomorphology, which has often been overlooked in earlier models.
Ajay Dashora, Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Guwahati said this framework offers a practical tool for reducing risks to communities and infrastructure in the Himalayas.
"By pinpointing high-risk areas, the framework can guide early-warning systems for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), help plan safer locations for roads, hydropower projects, and settlements, and support long-term water-resource management. It offers a practical tool for reducing risks to communities and infrastructure in the Himalayas," said Prof. Ajay Dashora, Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Guwahati.
"Beyond hazard management, the method can help understand how water systems may change as glaciers continue to retreat. Importantly, the framework is adaptable to other glaciated mountain regions around the world, making it a valuable tool for climate-resilient planning and disaster-risk reduction globally," Dashora added.
Instances of Glacial Lakes Leading to Disasters
According to findings published in Scientific Reports, historical events like the 1985 Dig Tsho GLOF in Nepal and the 2012 Kedarnath disaster in India demonstrate the massive destruction caused by such floods. These incidents have frequently impacted communities located tens of kilometres downstream.
With growing exposure of vulnerable populations and critical infrastructure, predicting glacial lake formation has become essential for effective hazard mitigation, water resource management, and regional development planning.
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs)
GLOFs cause significant socio-economic and environmental damage, including loss of life, destruction of agricultural land, damage to hydropower projects and transportation networks, and disruption of downstream ecosystems.
Where Can This Framework Be Used?
The proposed approach provides a transferable framework for identifying high-risk glacial lake formation sites. It can support regional hazard mitigation efforts, early warning systems, and sustainable water resource management in the Himalayas and other glaciated regions worldwide.
The study area features steep elevation gradients ranging from 340 metres to 7,252 metres, with most glaciers located between 4,000 and 7,600 metres above sea level.