- Benjamin Netanyahu seeks a seventh term amid declining voter support and legal issues
- US-Iran peace deal complicates Netanyahu's strategy to use war for political gain
- Netanyahu favors limited military strikes to avoid upsetting US and domestic critics
Benjamin Netanyahu is running out of time, literally.
The 76-year-old wants a seventh term in an election to be held by October, but his poor standing with voters - many still furious about the Oct 7 Hamas attack, and corruption and fraud cases against him - does not guarantee that outcome.
And now plans to use wars against Iran and its Lebanese proxy, the Hezbollah - both framed as 'existential threats' to the Israeli people - to reinforce his hawkish image and convince voters only he can protect them seem to have fallen through after the proposed US-Iran peace deal.
War-as-politics strategy has collapsed
Netanyahu is now in a more constrained phase; the only viable way forward seems to be political rather than military, though one still backed by calibrated action against the Hezbollah.
His core political plank - the man who protects Israel from the Hezbollah in the north while keeping Palestinian statehood demands in check - remains. But it has been dented by the Hamas attack and two wars, both unresolved as of today.
Israel prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Photo: Netanyahu/X
He can, and will, play up the brutal and ongoing Gaza campaign. However, the Iran deal and its Lebanon rider makes it harder for him to escalate military action as means to sell voters - particularly far-right support bases - a more decisive end-game.
Trump's deal throws wrench into the north
Trump's deal has, therefore, thrown a wrench into Netanyahu's electoral arithmetic, particularly in the north. A June survey by Israel's Hebrew University showed a sharp drop in support for his Likud party, driven in part by suspicion over a peace deal that could force Israel to stand down against the Hezbollah. Only 23 per cent favoured him, compared to 35 per cent in 2022.
And so, what he is likely now left with is an oddball mixture of political and military strategies to convince voters.
Limited strikes, not escalation
One way forward is limited military action - enough to keep the north and domestic critics quiet but not enough to anger Trump, whose Republican party faces mid-term elections to the House and Senate in November. As a result Trump now seems more interested in freezing, if not ending, the war rather than expanding it.
The US president has already publicly criticised Netanyahu's tactics in Lebanon.
Donald Trump wants Israel to stop attacking Lebanon. Photo: PTI
Trump even lost his temper in a phone conversation; he reportedly told Netanyahu, "You'd be in prison if it weren't for me. I'm saving your ass. Everybody hates you… hates Israel because of this." US Vice President JD Vance was rather more blunt warning. "Trump is the only head of state in the world who is sympathetic to Israel at this moment..." he declared.
Both leaders later played down the exchange. In an interview with CNBC days later, Netanyahu insisted the Israel-US relationship remains strong despite occasional disagreements. And Trump told the New York Post: "I was a little bit perturbed at his constantly fighting with Lebanon, you know. At some point I said, 'Bibi, we've got to stop this. We gotta stop it.'"
16 people were killed in Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, days after the Iran peace deal was signed.
But just days after the deal was signed, Israeli forces attacked southern Lebanon and killed at least 16 people, underlining concerns that continued fighting could unravel calls for a halt to military operations "on all fronts, including in Lebanon".
US Vice President JD Vance was supposed to travel to Switzerland to lead final deal talks but the trip was called off; the White House blamed logistical issues but a report from Al-Mayadeen - a pan-Arab satellite channel that is politically allied to Hezbollah - said Iran had first delayed sending its delegation over Israel's ongoing military campaign in Lebanon.
Victory declared, Hezbollah now
Meanwhile, Netanyahu has declared 'victory' against Iran.
He claimed last week US-Israel strikes had saved his country from the threat of "nuclear annihilation". Washington's deal with Iran - details of which are still unclear - is believed to include a guarantee that Tehran will not pursue the manufacture of a nuclear weapon, and will hand over its stockpile of enriched uranium.
This lets him ease Iran back from the spotlight and focus on the Hezbollah.
This week he told reporters that despite the US-Iran deal Israeli forces will remain in the roughly 570 sq km of southern Lebanese territory it holds. "We will stay in the Lebanon security buffer zone for as long as necessary," he said.
Tehran has insisted any deal must include peace in Lebanon.
The Hezbollah - its most powerful proxy - told Reuters it is open to peace so long as Israel doesn't attack. And Israeli military officials told the Jerusalem Post that if the Hezbollah didn't attack, they wouldn't either.
A measure of peace appears possible and that is something Trump has pushed for, recognising belatedly that the war has cost him votes and is bleeding the US treasury and arsenal dry.
The US dependency trap
But Netanyahu - who knows Israel relies heavily on the US for financial and military aid, having received $3.8 billion annually since 2019 - cannot afford to back down too much.
Netanyahu walks a tightrope between Trump's displeasure and the war on Hezbollah (File)
He knows hardline Israeli factions will see an end to fighting - without a complete dismantling of the Iran regime - as an invitation to it and the Hezbollah to re-arm, particularly since the deal with the US includes lifting of economic sanctions.
Retaining troops in southern Lebanon - a detente that will not please either the US or Iran, but will likely be grudgingly accepted - lets Netanyahu keep his 'protector' image alive.
And it allows him to act against Hezbollah to keep the northern voters happy, though these will largely be covert strikes. But it has to be within limits deemed acceptable by Trump and Iran.
The core dilemma
The primary problem confronting Netanyahu now is - 'how do I project deterrence without a full-blown war that is backed by the US, and is therefore one that can be diplomatically sustained?'
Peace helps and hurts
Peace with Iran - and the Hezbollah - can help Netanyahu.
It removes the immediate risk of a downward spiral over an open-ended war, particularly one on two simultaneous fronts that could escalate very quickly into a regional conflict. Peace also gives him the opportunity to focus on an Israeli economy battered by war on three fronts.
But it does also pose a challenge because the Israeli prime minister has built his political identity on a strongman image that thrives in a 'national security crisis' situation. Without that card to play, he will likely be forced into a defensively-minded campaign, one relying less on the theatrics of war and conflict and more on rhetoric and, likely, coalition management.
In that sense, the challenge has gone from wartime leadership to constrained peacetime management.
