- US intelligence predicted Iran war consequences before Trump's missile attack approval
- Tulsi Gabbard warned Trump of Iran's nuclear ambitions and regional escalation risks
- Hardline IRGC gained control and closed Strait of Hormuz, destabilizing energy markets
The US intelligence apparatus reportedly predicted the course of the war in the Middle East even before President Donald Trump greenlit the first missile attack in February. Days before Trump decided to back the Israeli war goal, his then-intelligence chief, Tulsi Gabbard, briefed him about the US intel correctly predicting that killing Iran's supreme leader would likely usher in a more hard-line regime open to acquiring nuclear weapons, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.
The report claimed that Gabbard outlined assessments from America's intelligence apparatus, warning Trump that in the event of a military escalation by the US and Israel. Iran -- which was at its weakest point in decades at the time -- would rush to close the Strait of Hormuz, destabilising the global energy market.
Gabbard had warned that Tehran would resort to striking US forces and partners in the Middle East, prompting questions about American resolve and reliability with allies.
Similar notes of caution also echoed in other warnings Trump received from his other top military leaders, who told him that a war would lead to casualties, concerns about the weapons stockpile, and readiness problems for an overstretched force.
Nonetheless, Trump went ahead on the warpath that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented to him as a rare opportunity to dismantle Iran's nuclear program and bolster his legacy as a peacemaker.
Prediction Becomes Reality
Now, six months into the Iran war, a conflict Trump promised would be over within six weeks is continuing without a clear end in sight, with all warning materialising into deadlocks for the US.
In Iran, the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has taken control of the nation's political landscape and commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The new regime under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded the top post from his father, Ali Khamenei, shows no signs of capitulating, and the continued deadlock has led the Trump administration to consider declaring victory with just the opening of the critical shipping route, even without a nuclear deal.
The months of war have also reportedly drained the US ammunition stockpile, with Trump resorting to a wait-and-see strategy by relying on sanctions and a perpetual blockade to crush Iran's economy. He argues his strategy would send the Islamic regime crawling to his feet.
The bombardment has also damaged US bases, drained oil reserves, and resulted in the deaths of over 3,000 people, including 18 US troops. It is also now weighing down Republican prospects ahead of the midterm elections and sinking Trump's poll numbers to the lowest of his presidency.
'All Was Predicted'
Some former White House and national security officials believe that there is no easy way for Trump to get a deal that puts a full stop on Iran's nuclear work indefinitely, elevating him as a historic wartime president.
"This was all predictable and predicted," Eric Brewer, a deputy vice president at the Nuclear Threat Initiative who worked in Democratic and Republican administrations, told the WSJ.
"You can draw a straight line from the fact that the war was launched without any clear political objective to the mishandled diplomacy in trying to end it," he added.
