- The US is considering restricting diesel exports to prioritise domestic fuel availability
- US diesel accounts for about 20% of sea-traded global diesel supplies
- European diesel futures have more than doubled since early 2026 amid supply pressures
The global energy order is undergoing a sharp shift, with the US increasingly using its position as a major energy producer to influence fuel flows far beyond its borders. President Donald Trump's threats to restrict American diesel exports have added to uncertainty in an already strained market, forcing governments, traders and businesses to reassess where the world's fuel supplies will come from. As wars disrupt production and shipping routes, Washington's push to prioritise domestic fuel availability is also raising questions about how much the US will continue to support global energy markets - and what that could mean for prices from Europe to Asia.
Diesel prices are at all-time high in the UK, according to motoring organisation RAC. Petrol prices too have been rising. According to the BBC, the cost of diesel has risen about 40 per cent since the start of the Iran war in February.
The grim statistics emerged as Trump said on September 22 that he "very seriously" supported the idea of banning US diesel exports, arguing that American fuel should remain available for American consumers. His administration is examining whether a full or partial restriction would be feasible. However, no blanket export ban has been imposed, and the White House has denied a report that it was preparing a 90-day ban.
The oil markets are jittery because the US is supplies about 20 per cent of diesel traded by sea, making it a critical source globally as supplies face pressure from conflicts involving Russia, Ukraine and Iran. A restriction on US exports could leave fewer barrels available to Europe and other importing regions, forcing buyers to compete for supplies from alternative producers.
The impact is already visible in the markets. Reuters reported that talk of a possible US export ban has widened the gap between US crude futures and the global Brent benchmark, indicating that traders expect US refiners could process less crude if they are unable to sell diesel overseas.
Europe is particularly exposed. European diesel futures have more than doubled from their levels at the start of 2026, while diesel prices have reached records in several markets. In Australia, the price of diesel has risen by seven per cent to nearly $3 a litre, according to the federal government's latest fuel data.
There are 32 days of diesel in the nation's fuel reserves, according to a report in nine.com.au.
The United States is facing its own fuel-price squeeze. Average US diesel prices crossed $6 a gallon for the first time earlier this month, according to GasBuddy data cited by Reuters. US diesel inventories have also fallen to unusually low levels.
Asia has not escaped the pressure. Reuters reported that benchmark diesel prices in the region were also close to record levels as supplies from the Middle East and Russia were disrupted.
Trump's proposed export restriction could therefore have an unusual effect: a policy designed to increase fuel availability in the US could reduce supplies elsewhere and intensify competition for diesel. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has warned that a blanket export ban could also force American refiners to cut production, potentially pushing up gasoline and jet-fuel prices.
But Trump's threats are not the sole reason for today's global fuel-price surge. The IEA says the deeper problem is a combination of Middle East supply disruptions, reduced Russian refining and exports, depleted inventories and refining capacity operating close to its limits.
The result is a fragile global fuel market in which every additional disruption, including a possible US diesel-export restriction, can quickly translate into higher prices for motorists, farmers, transport companies and businesses worldwide.
