- US blockade of Iranian ports risks escalating Middle East tensions and disrupting shipping routes
- Saudi Arabia urges US to end Strait of Hormuz blockade and return to negotiations
- Iran may retaliate by closing Bab al-Mandeb, threatening Saudi oil exports via the Red Sea
The US-Israel war against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have shattered a status quo that prevailed among Middle East oil and gas producers for decades. America's Gulf ally, Saudi Arabia, is now reportedly worried that President Donald Trump's move to block the Iranian port may worsen the situation.
Riyadh is reportedly 'pressing' the Donald Trump administration to 'drop its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and return to the negotiating table', according to a Wall Street Journal report. Arab officials told the American publication that Saudi Arabia fears that Trump's move to close Iranian ports could lead Tehran to escalate and disrupt other important shipping routes
The US decision to blockade all Iranian shipments out of or into the Strait of Hormuz is aimed at raising the pressure on Iran's already crippled economy. But Saudi Arabia has reportedly warned the US that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandeb --a Red Sea chokepoint crucial for the kingdom's remaining oil exports.
Gulf Worries
Over the six weeks of war, Tehran has now demonstrated both its ability and willingness to seal off the critical waterway and strike vital infrastructure across the region, fundamentally altering the risk calculus for its neighbours and jeopardising Gulf countries' long-term oil and gas strategies.
Saudi Arabia, after weeks of disruption, managed to get its oil exports back up to their prewar level of around seven million barrels a day by piping its crude across the desert to the Red Sea, while Iran's Hormuz blockade persisted. Riyadh is worried those supplies would be at risk if the Red Sea's exit route were also closed, the WSJ report said.
The long stretch of coastline near the Bab al-Mandeb is controlled by Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen. Houthis, who are part of Iran's axis of resistance, severely disrupted the waterway for much of the war in the Gaza Strip, and now Iran is putting pressure on the group to close the chokepoint again, Arab officials said.
"If Iran does want to shut down Bab al-Mandeb, the Houthis are the obvious partner to do it, and their response to the Gaza conflict demonstrates that they have the capacity to do it," Adam Baron, an expert on Yemen and fellow at New America, a policy institute in Washington, told WSJ.
Iran's Bab Al-Mandeb Warning
Iran's semiofficial Tasnim news agency, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has reported that the US blockade of Iranian ports could lead the country to close the Red Sea gateway.
Ali Akbar Velayati, a foreign-policy adviser to Iran's supreme leader, said in a social media post on April 5 that Tehran looks at Bab al-Mandeb "just as it looks at Hormuz. And if the White House thinks of repeating its stupid mistakes, it will quickly realise that the flow of global energy and trade can be disrupted with a single signal."
On Monday, Iran also issued a threat against the maritime security of its neighbours if the US blocks its shipping routes.
"If the security of Iran's ports in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is threatened, no port in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman will be safe," Iran's armed forces said in a statement published by state-run IRIB News.
US Limitations in War
The war has sharply exposed how vulnerable the Middle Eastern energy infrastructure is. Now, the pushback by Saudi Arabia also exposes the limitations of US efforts to pry open the critical waterway, through which 20 per cent of global oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LNG) passes in peacetime. Iran's chokehold on the Strait has cut off around 13 million barrels a day in oil exports, sending futures prices above $100 a barrel.
The US blockade of Iranian ports went into effect on Monday, with the White House assuring America's Gulf allies are on board with the move.
"President Trump has been clear that he wants the Strait of Hormuz to be fully open to facilitate the free flow of energy... The administration is in frequent contact with our Gulf allies, whom the President is helping by ensuring that Iran cannot extort the United States or any other country," White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said.
Gulf's Iran Problem
The six-week war has laid bare deep tensions between Iran and its key regional neighbours: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq -- all close US allies. They had long avoided direct confrontation with Tehran under a tacit understanding that war would devastate their shared economic interests. However, that cordial relationship has now been shattered.
But that entente cordiale has now been blown apart. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in history, delivering a devastating shock to the region and the global economy.
Now, Gulf states reportedly don't want the war to end with Iran in control of the strait that is their economic lifeline. But many, including Saudi Arabia, are pressing the US to resolve the issue at the negotiating table and are scrambling to restart talks.
