Gadi Eisenkot Has 28 Days To Form Israel Government. How He May Get Numbers

President Isaac Herzog has asked the Yashar party leader to form Israel's next government after the October 27 election left no clear winner. Eisenkot has 28 days. He can get 14 more if he needs them.
On paper, he looks strong. Sixty-seven lawmakers recommended him to the President. Forty-six backed Netanyahu. The seven members of United Torah Judaism (UTJ) named neither man.

But recommending someone for Prime Minister is one thing. Serving in his government is another. Eisenkot has the first. The second will be much tougher.

The 61-Seat Problem

The Knesset has 120 seats, so a government needs 61. Eisenkot's anti-Netanyahu bloc has 48: his own Yashar party with 21, Together with 12, The Democrats with eight, and Yisrael Beiteinu with seven. The two Arab parties, the Joint List and Ra'am, add 19 more. That's how it adds up to 67.

But these parties don't share much beyond their dislike of Netanyahu. That could cause real trouble over the next four weeks.

Arab Parties: Kingmakers Or Liability

The simplest path to a majority runs through the Arab parties. The Joint List has 11 seats and Ra'am has eight, enough to push Eisenkot's bloc past 61. The catch is Avigdor Liberman. His right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu has long refused to partner with Arab parties, and it is part of Eisenkot's bloc. 

Would he accept a government that needs Arab lawmakers to survive?

A compromise might exist. The Arab parties could stay out of the cabinet and back the government from outside, voting with it on confidence motions and key legislation. Even so, Netanyahu and the right would fight it hard. Netanyahu has already attacked the idea, casting a government that leans on Arab parties as a security threat. 

Expect that fight to get louder as talks go on.

The Ultra-Orthodox Option

A more surprising route would bring the Ultra-Orthodox parties in. UTJ, with seven seats, declined to back either candidate, which makes it a key player. Liberman has hinted he might bend on military conscription for Ultra-Orthodox men if that keeps Netanyahu out of power. That would be a big shift. The draft has been one of the deepest fault lines in Israeli politics. Eisenkot and his allies campaigned for mandatory service for everyone, while Ultra-Orthodox parties have always demanded exemptions for religious students.

Even with UTJ, Eisenkot would need more. Reports say Shas, with six seats, might not stand in the way if its religious leaders approve. Add UTJ's seven and Shas's six to the 48-seat bloc and you reach 61, at least in theory. But Shas has publicly dismissed the reports that it could join. Nothing here is settled.

Can Netanyahu Come Back?

Don't count him out. Netanyahu has called for a national unity government and invited Eisenkot's camp to join Likud and its allies. His condition is that his current partners, including the far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties, stay in.

Eisenkot is unlikely to accept that. He has repeatedly said he won't serve under Netanyahu, and he argues that leaders in charge during the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack should leave public life.

Another option is a government with Likud lawmakers but without Netanyahu or the far-right. 

Yashar has signalled that Likud and its allies could join Eisenkot's government if they cut ties with extremist partners and accept his terms. Whether Likud will make that break is a big question. For Netanyahu, it wouldn't just mean losing office. It could set off a fight over his future and over who leads Likud.

What If Eisenkot Fails?

Day 28 isn't necessarily the end. Under Basic Law: The Government, the President can add 14 days. If Eisenkot still comes up short, Herzog can hand the task to another lawmaker, and Netanyahu could get his turn. If those efforts fail too, Israel could head back to the polls, with another election in early 2027.

That threat could shape the talks. Parties that don't want to face voters again may become more flexible on thorny issues like military conscription, judicial reform and the split of ministerial posts.

More Than A Coalition Test

How Eisenkot handles this will show whether the anti-Netanyahu alliance can actually govern or was only a vehicle for removing one man. He has laid out four principles: Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, the values of its Declaration of Independence, mandatory military service, and defeating Hamas's military and governing power. The Arab parties and ultra-Orthodox lawmakers will put those principles to the test.

Eisenkot also brings a security resume that most rivals lack. He is a former IDF chief of staff who entered politics in 2022. He served briefly in Netanyahu's wartime cabinet after October 7 before going back to the opposition. His attacks on Netanyahu's handling of the war and on the far-right's influence have been at the heart of his campaign.

For now, he has the mandate, the numbers on paper and the momentum. The next 28 days will come down to compromises, red lines and who's willing to sit with whom. The big question is whether the 67 lawmakers who agreed he should get the first shot can agree on the government he wants to lead.

For Netanyahu, the clock may be running down on his long dominance. For Eisenkot, this may be the start of a much bigger test.