From 'Intifada' To Kingmaker: Israel's Arab Parties' Momentum Post Hamas Attack

They cast ballots in national elections. They select the parliament's legislators. They have even been key in determining who gets to be prime minister. But for much of the country's history, Israel's Arab parties have been on the fringes of power.

That may change soon.

In the recently concluded Israeli elections, neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc nor the opposition won a clear majority, leaving Arab lawmakers to decide who will form the next government. But the story is much bigger than the maths of one election. It is a decades-long argument over Palestinian identity, equal citizenship and whether Arab representatives can wield real power in a state that defines itself as Jewish. 

Who Do They Represent?

Israel's Arab parties generally represent Palestinian citizens of Israel, who make up about 20 per cent of the population. There are many descendants of Palestinians who stayed inside the country's borders after the 1948 Arab-Israeli war and the founding of the state. They are different from Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip who are not allowed to vote in Israeli national elections.

The community is made up of Muslims, Christians and Druze, although the Druze have their own political dynamics and many have long supported parties led by Jews. Opinions are by no means unanimous. Some parties espouse Palestinian nationalism and seek to have Arab citizens recognised as a national minority. Others are led by religion. Some call for Arab-Jewish cooperation in civil rights, economic development and social justice. 

Three Traditions

In the first few decades of Israel, Arab representation was often through lists linked to Mapai, David Ben-Gurion's leading party. Arab citizens were under military administration until 1966, with their movement restricted. Those lists won seats but had little independence from the Jewish-led parties that were behind them.

Another tradition was the Israeli Communist Party, which united Arab and Jewish activists in the struggle against discrimination, for socialism and for Palestinian rights. After the split in the movement, New Communist List, Rakah, became a major force among Arab voters. In 1977 it helped found Hadash, the Democratic Front for Peace and Equality, still a major Arab-Jewish coalition.

Palestinian nationalism was itself a tendency. Al-Ard was banned in the 1960s, and later movements tried to establish an independent voice. The National Democratic Alliance, or Balad, was established in 1995 and entered the Knesset in 1996. It argued that Arab citizens should be recognised as a Palestinian national minority and that equality was impossible without confronting Israel's national identity.

The Islamist movement eventually gave birth to the United Arab List, Ra'am, which focused on religious identity, social issues and practical gains for Arab communities. Those differences continue to inform each party's view on coalitions, Palestinian statehood and cooperation with Jewish-led parties.

The Intifadas and October 2000

The First Intifada, which began in December 1987 in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, was a turning point. For Palestinian citizens of Israel, national identity and solidarity with Palestinians in the occupied territories were pushed to the top of the domestic agenda. It also raised the value of independent Arab organisations over the lists that relied on Jewish parties.

Arab citizens were in a difficult balancing act. They were Israeli citizens. They could vote. Many were also heavily involved in the Palestinian national movement. There was no Arab response to the uprising. It widened the gulf between those who embraced nationalism, those who backed Arab-Jewish partnership, and those who aimed for change via Israeli institutions. The Oslo peace process of the 1990s had raised hopes of resolving the conflict, but it also left many Arab citizens unhappy with their position within Israel.

The second Intifada began in September 2000 and was a more severe blow to relations with the state. By early October, the protests had spread to Arab towns and villages, where demonstrators showed solidarity with Palestinians in the occupied territories. Israeli police have used violence. Thirteen Arabs were killed.

For many, the deaths laid bare the limits of integration in a state that they felt had treated them unfairly. Distrust of police and government increased. Even voting patterns changed. Arab turnout, according to the Israel Democracy Institute, dropped dramatically. It averaged around 57 per cent over the four elections held between 2003 and 2013, compared with 66 per cent nationally. Calls to boycott the elections caught fire, fanned by anger at government policy and a sense of the weakness of Arab representation.

The Joint List and the Power Question

The Joint List was created before the 2015 election, as the need for unity gave birth to the list. It united Hadash, Balad, Ta'al and Ra'am on a common platform, despite their differences over nationalism, religion and relations with Jewish-led parties. In 2015, it won 13 seats. In March 2020, all four parties ran together again, took a record 15 seats, and became the third-largest faction in parliament.

But seats alone did not mean power. In 2020, the Joint List had recommended President Reuven Rivlin give Benny Gantz a chance to form a government. The reliance on Arab lawmakers was politically contentious, and the effort never produced an alternative government. The episode highlighted a persistent issue: Arab parties could be kingmakers, but Jewish-led parties didn't always consider them legitimate partners.

The Arab Party Joins the Government

In 2021, Mansour Abbas's Ra'am broke away from the Joint List and adopted a more pragmatic line. Arab citizens would be better off taking part in decision-making rather than always being in opposition, Abbas said. Ra'am joined the coalition assembled by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, the first independent Arab party in decades to sit in an Israeli governing coalition.

It campaigned for money and policy changes on crime and violence in Arab communities, housing and planning problems and unequal access to public services. The critics feared that the participation in a government that was committed to Israel's Jewish character would compromise Palestinian national rights. "Only by taking part could people improve their daily life," said the supporters. The experiment showed that an Arab party could go into government. It didn't set the limits of how far such a party could cooperate with Jewish-led parties and still be true to itself.

October 7

The October 7, 2023, Hamas-led assault on southern Israel transformed Israel. It killed about 1,200 people according to Israeli figures, and took 251 hostages into Gaza. Israel responded with a military offensive that devastated large parts of Gaza, killed hundreds of Palestinians and caused a dire humanitarian crisis.

The aftermath was particularly rough for Arab citizens. They lived in a traumatised country, and many identified with the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza. Their representatives had to thread a needle between Israeli grief and fear, anger over the war and concern about how Palestinians were being treated. There was less room for expression, with Arab citizens and activists being targeted for public statements and expressions of solidarity.

The pragmatic strategy of Ra'am faced the most pressure. The war made it more difficult to disentangle civil concerns and Palestinian national issues. But the everyday problems remained: violence and organised crime in the Arab towns, lack of housing, planning restrictions, access to public resources. October 7 didn't erase the divisions between the parties. It made them sharper.

From the Margins to Kingmaker?

If neither bloc wins the 61 seats needed for a majority, Arab lawmakers could decide who governs. Ra'am indicated it would join a coalition in exchange for pledges on the needs of Arab citizens. Hadash and Ta'al have largely sought influence outside of government. Balad has adopted a more confrontational stance toward the Israeli mainstream. Any deal will depend on the final seat count, the parties' conditions and whether a potential prime minister is willing to rely on their votes.

History cautions against equating the maths of parliamentary seats with inclusion. For the parties, the challenge is to turn seats into real change without selling out the principles their voters believe in. The question for Israel's political establishment is whether it can accept Arab representatives as legitimate partners or only as necessary votes when a majority is at stake.

The answer might determine more than who runs Israel. It might determine if Arab political participation becomes a permanent feature of the country's governance.