The world's focus is on AI - large language models promising increased individual and business productivity and the US using Claude-based systems for enhanced battlefield analysis in Iran.
The focus is also on clean energy, on the use of electric transportation platforms to reduce dependence on fossil fuels that pollute air and water reserves that in increasingly short supply.
But behind the futuristic curtain there is a race unfolding - a scramble between the West and China to control critical minerals and their supply chains, i.e., the mines from which they are extracted to refineries that process, them and shipping channels that distribute them globally.
Critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, and the specific subcategory of rare earth minerals, are part of a base enabling growth of Artificial Intelligence and the bedrock of related industries like microelectronics, batteries, and semiconductors that power these systems.
The list of critical minerals evolves over time. But what makes them 'critical' is the fact that emergent technology - like AI - is grounded in component hardware made with these resources.
Control over these minerals, therefore, offers any country a strategic edge not just for economic growth and the race to build next-gen technology but also in the development of weapons or, as in the case of the US in Iran, refining existing military protocols to inflict greater damage in a war.
The takeaway is simple.
The next big global tech race won't be won in labs or boardrooms. The winner won't be the newest invention or the most ruthless corporate shark. It will be the country (or company) that best controls mines, refineries, and ports. And right now, China is winning that race.
The critical minerals race
Last week a report by the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that 'ownership of strategically significant mineral deposits is changing hands' and that Chinese firms are 'acquiring an ever-larger share of assets that will supply future rare earths demand'.
In 2024 these acquisitions hit their highest level in a decade. At least 10 deals were valued at over $100 million. And in 2025 state private firms spent even more, buying up mines, mining operations, and refineries in South America and Africa to reinforce its already dominant hold.
The numbers are startling. In December 2025 the Africa Center for Strategic Studies noted Beijing 'now controls over half of global critical minerals production', including 70 per cent of rare earth minerals, or REEs, and an estimated 87 per cent of all processing and refining.
And acquisitions over 2023-26 have crossed $6.5 billion, including the $2 billion purchase of a Argentinian lithium mine and the $1.73 billion purchase of a copper mine in Botswana.
Beijing's readiness to move first and willingness to spend big has bought it the gatekeeper's post on critical and rare earth minerals at a time of increasing emphasis on these resources. This means it can curb or supress exports to rival nations or even undercut other suppliers.
The US was on the receiving end of just such a lesson in 2024; in an acerbic tit-for-tat trade tariffs exchange, China withheld REEs that American manufacturers desperately needed.
Beijing's flex then was a lesson in weaponising strategic chokeholds, a lesson Washington has since been taught anew by Tehran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz to weaponise oil flows.
Now, this doesn't mean the US and other western nations are unaware of critical minerals or their importance. On the contrary, Reuters said that in February US Vice President JD Vance unveiled plans to marshal allied nations into a preferential trading bloc to help Washington loosen Beijing's grip on these materials. "We want to eliminate that problem of people flooding into our markets with cheap critical minerals to undercut our domestic manufacturers," he said.
Reuters also reported the US has also launched an initiative to stockpile critical minerals; the Trump administration codenamed this Project Vault and set aside $10 billion in seed funding.
India and Japan were among 55 countries present at Vance's February meeting.
For India the stakes are high, perhaps higher than most other countries.
The war in Iran and the subsequent squeezing of oil and gas imports has forced the Indian government into hiking prices by substantial margins to offset losses - increased crude oil prices, shipping and risk premiums - incurred by oil and gas marketing companies.
The war has underlined the need to not just diversify sources but grow beyond fossil fuels and into clean energy, an expansion path that relies heavily on a steady supply of critical minerals, something India does not control. The global AI push is also something that hinges on this.
India imports roughly over 82 per cent of its critical minerals; lithium, cobalt, and nickel, all important for the semiconductor and EV battery industry are among the top imports.
The value of these and related imports crossed a staggering $8 billion in 2023-24. In 2024-25 India imported nearly 54,000 tons of rare earth magnets, of which 93 per cent was from China.
The government is working on corrective measures, which include having signed agreements with the US and UK on critical minerals and diversifying imports through partnerships with Australia, Chile, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the European Union.
These measures revolve around the $3.6 billion National Critical Mineral Mission expected to reduce import dependence from the current 85 to 95 per cent to just 50 per cent by 2035.
But the inescapable fact at this time is that China controls over half of the production and refining of critical minerals, which is a chokehold that cannot be escaped in the short term.
For India the truth is different - winning the next tech race is difficult without expanded sourcing and dramatically improved domestic extraction (of what reserves are available) and processing.
