A stark new memo from Citrini Research has outlined a troubling scenario for 2028, warning that rapid advances in artificial intelligence could trigger an unexpected economic crisis, even as headline growth figures remain strong.
Titled The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis, the report by the firm and analyst Alap Shah imagines a future where AI systems dramatically boost corporate productivity and profits. On paper, the economy appears healthy, with steady GDP growth and expanding margins. Yet beneath those figures, unemployment climbs above 10 per cent and the S&P 500 falls nearly 40 per cent from its peak.
The memo describes what it calls an "human intelligence displacement spiral". As AI agents take over white-collar roles such as coding, financial analysis and customer support, companies reduce staff and reinvest savings into further automation. While profits improve, displaced workers spend less, weakening consumer demand.
This leads to what the report terms "Ghost GDP" - output continues to be recorded in national accounts, but income increasingly flows to owners of capital rather than households. In the United States, where consumer spending makes up roughly 70 per cent of GDP, that imbalance could prove dangerous.
The memo also flags risks in private credit markets, particularly loans tied to software firms whose revenues may falter under AI disruption. Even the $13 trillion US mortgage market could face strain if high-earning professionals lose stable incomes.
Ultimately, the report argues that governments remain structured around taxing labour income, while AI-driven gains increasingly benefit capital. If institutions fail to adapt quickly, the mismatch could deepen the downturn.
The warning is clear: the crisis may not stem from failure, but from technology working exactly as designed.
