Will BJP Hold On To Madhya Pradesh? Watch Prannoy Roy's Analysis

PUBLISHED ON: November 22, 2018 | Duration: 1 hr, 1 min, 51 sec

  
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The Congress is leaving no stone unturned to wrest power from the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, which will go to polls on November 28. The party has been out of power in the state since 2003 when it was dislodged by the BJP. For the Congress, the trio of party leaders Kamal Nath, Jyotiraditya Scindia and Digvijaya Singh is spearheading the campaign. The BJP is contesting polls under Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who is seeking a fourth term. On The Countdown, NDTV's Dr Prannoy Roy and other election experts take a look at whether the BJP will be able to hold on to the state and speak to Congress leader Kamal Nath and Chief Minister Chouhan.

Here are the highlights of Dr Prannoy Roy's election analysis:

In the 2013 Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections, the BJP won by a large margin.



This is a BJP bastion. It has won it 3 times. It will be a fourth time. This state is also very important for whoever wants to win Lok Sabha polls that follow. The margin between the BJP and Congress here was a 9 per cent vote difference. The Congress needs a 5% swing away from the BJP to win this time: Prannoy Roy



The alliance factor - how the results would have changed in favour of Congress, had it allied with BSP in the 2013 assembly election in Madhya Pradesh.



Shivraj Singh Chouhan on running his government for 3 terms

"I ran the government with the participation of the people. Made policies for them."

Shivraj Singh Chouhan on what his government needs to improve on

"There are two fronts on which I still need to do better work. First, I need to increase employment opportunities. And second, the Congress had ruined education in the state. Regular teachers had been replaced by education workers. I have brought back the regular teachers, but this system has to be strengthened."

Shivraj Singh Chouhan on bringing development in Madhya Pradesh

"We started from quite a lot further back and have managed to come this far. We have distributed resources better to improve the lives of the poor and to bring development to them. By giving them various benefits, we have brought change to their lives."

Shivraj Singh Chouhan says Naxals have been kept out of MP

"Where law and order is concerned, Madhya Pradesh was under the grip of dacoits - that has ended. The SIMI network was wiped out, and the Naxal movement has been kept out of Madhya Pradesh."

Shivraj Singh Chouhan on crimes against women and children

"We have also passed a very tough law to deal with crimes against women, which leads straight to the gallows when a girl child is involved. So far, more than 14 people have been sentenced to death by hanging."

Shivraj Singh Chouhan on why the BJP has fielded only 1 Muslim candidate in MP

"It's not as though the Congress has any more than us. I would like to say that the tickets we give out are not distributed with the Hindu-Muslim angle in mind. The better candidate gets the ticket."

Shivraj Singh Chouhan on the caste system

"The BJP has always been above caste, creed, community, religion. The party considers everybody as equals... Everyone is created equal in the eyes of God. Everybody is equal, there should be no discrimination."

How Congress would have gained from an alliance with Mayawati in Madhya Pradesh



Here's the voter breakup by religion and caste in Madhya Pradesh. Results of the Madhya Pradesh election will be declared on December 11.





Rural vote matters: Over 70 per cent of voters in Madhya Pradesh are in villages



This state is probably the most honest state. They tell you who they are going to vote for: Dr Prannoy Roy

How the tribal and Scheduled Caste voters are spread across Madhya Pradesh





The two dominant tribes in Madhya Pradesh vote very differently.



How the Hindu vote is divided between the Congress and BJP



The BJP has a bigger lead over the Congress among young voters than middle-aged ones, according to an opinion poll in 2014.



Kamal Nath on what went wrong for the Congress in last three Madhya Pradesh elections

"The first election that we lost in 2003 was because of incumbency of 10 years, which we had. In 2008, our organisation wasn't what it should have been. One of my biggest challenges was that we build up this organisation, which had got more fat than muscle."

Kamal Nath on whether there is infighting in the Congress in Madhya Pradesh

"I don't think there is any infighting among the leaders. We have perfect harmony and co-ordination among ourselves. Everybody is on the field, everybody is making an effort, because the objective is the same. Everybody's stakes are the same."

Kamal Nath on why the Congress could not tie up with Mayawati

"The number of seats they wanted and the type of seats they wanted, didn't come to a winning combination... In fact, it meant gifting these seats to the BJP. So that's why it never happened."

Kamal Nath on the Vyapam scam

"Every youth has been cheated, and 2,000 people went to jail who gave money. They did the wrong thing. They sold their jewellery, they mortgaged their land. They went to jail, their lives are finished. But those who took the money are the leaders and the netas."

Kamal Nath on whether corruption is an issue in these polls

"I don't see... This is the corruption capital of India. The corruption starts from the village and goes all the way. You have the mafia, the sand mafia, the liquor mafia, the satta mafia, the coal mafia, all controlled by BJP leaders."

Kamal Nath on who is a bigger vote getter in Madhya Pradesh between Shivraj Chouhan and PM Modi

"At the moment being the Vidhan Sabha election, and with the severe incumbency of the Chief Minister, Shivraj Singh ji, PM Modi would be better."

Kamal Nath on Rahul Gandhi's image being smaller than his on Congress posters

"I don't have anything to do with the posters, this is what the local people put up."

BJP usually draws male votes; Congress has stronger following among women voters.



Between 2003 and 2013, the Congress gained ground in areas dominated by Scheduled Castes in Madhya Pradesh, but very slowly.



The BJP has been the dominant force in Madhya Pradesh since its win in 1990.



BJP has been dominant in Madhya Pradesh for 28 years



Will BJP hold on to Madhya Pradesh after three terms? Here's what opinion polls suggest



The municipal election results in Madhya Pradesh show gains for Congress in urban areas.



The BJP did very well in by-elections in February 2018.



The 16 bellwether seats to watch out for as Madhya Pradesh votes are counted. Nepanagar got it right in the last 9 elections, Badnagar picked the winner in 7.

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