The recent aerial clash between Pakistan and India offers a glimpse of how China is narrowing the gap in military airpower with the US. It's a warning not just for Washington, but for Taipei, too.
Claims from both sides remain contested, but a broader picture is emerging among experts who track China's air force and fighter jet development: Beijing's defense systems are growing increasingly credible. Pakistan said its deployment of Chinese-manufactured J-10C fighters downed multiple Indian aircraft, although New Delhi denies this.
There are caveats: Even if Islamabad's claims are accurate, Beijing's equipment doesn't offer a direct comparison to US capabilities. The J-10C isn't a full stealth fighter like the F-22 or F-35, but it does have some features to make it less visible to radar. Still, the incident highlights the significant investments the Communist Party has made in the People's Liberation Army Air Force, and speaks to President Xi Jinping's target for full military modernization by 2027.
The use of the J-10C in this regional conflict suggests that goal may be steadily progressing, despite ongoing high-profile graft issues. Several senior military officers have been removed from their posts because of allegations they were involved in corruption.
For now, the US is still the world leader, with more military aircraft than Russia, China, India, South Korea and Japan combined, notes FlightGlobal's World Air Forces 2025 report. But much of America's inventory is beyond its prime, filled with decades-old fighters, bombers, and tankers. Meanwhile, the PLA's air force is growing quickly, although it remains far from rivaling the US in overall size.
But it is catching up. Washington currently maintains an advantage in fifth-generation aircraft such as the F-22 and F-35, although Beijing is closing the gap there, too. It's reportedly manufacturing more than 100 fifth-generation J-20 fighters annually, and nearly tripling production of other aircraft types, such as the J-10C and J-16, notes the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
This is possible because of the PLA's centralized, whole-of-government approach. Taken together, the manufacturing of major combat assets like ships and planes shows a military and industrial base increasingly prepared for conflict with the US, CSIS adds.
China is also beginning to match the US when it comes to systems integration, notes Mike Dahm, senior resident fellow for aerospace and China Studies at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. "The US military has excelled at linking different ground, space, and airborne systems together in an effective kill chain," he told me. "I believe the Chinese have now demonstrated that in the India-Pakistan conflict."
Geography matters, too, Dahm said. Beijing has the advantage of being in the same neighborhood as the potential wars it might fight. That's not the case for the US, even with its numerous bases in the Indo-Pacific.
Beijing's airpower capabilities have been ringing alarm bells in Washington. The latest Pentagon annual China Military Power Report points to a dramatic rise in the PLA's nuclear, space, missile, and aviation capabilities in recent years.
China wants to expand its long-range reach beyond the First Island Chain, a virtual line drawn from the islands of Japan, passing the Philippines, and curving at the southern end of the South China Sea between Malaysia and Vietnam, the report notes. The chain is a key aspect of Washington's security architecture in the Indo-Pacific - but crucially, it also encompasses Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own.
Xi has vowed that China will unify with the self-ruled island by 2049 - it's a central part of his national rejuvenation plan. But that timeline might change.
For the first time in its annual military drills earlier this year, Taiwan's Defense Ministry cited 2027 as a potential year for a Chinese invasion. That would align with Xi's goal of building a modern military by then. US officials have also echoed that view, citing China's rapid buildup of warships, fighter jets and missile stockpiles since 2020.
Still, capability doesn't equal intent but China's expanding reach raises the stakes for both the island's defense and American military dominance in the region. Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, said the PLA demonstrated growing capabilities through persistent operations against Taiwan, which escalated by 300% in 2024. Testifying before Congress in April, he also warned they were not merely exercises but "dress rehearsals for forced unification."
Taiwan is already reassessing its defense strategy, with purchases of Patriot PAC-3 systems and PAC-3 MSE anti-aircraft missiles capable of intercepting threats. In theory, this will also allow it to detect advanced fighters at higher altitudes. Despite the ongoing gridlock in parliament over the defense budget, Taipei will be under increasing pressure to expand its military spending.
Washington should also keep investing in next-generation aircraft technology to stay ahead of Beijing, which is working on a so-called sixth-generation fighter jet of its own. Embracing allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific would also help - a task made more difficult by the White House tone on defense and trade.
The India-Pakistan clash was a taste of what China's air force may now be capable of. Washington and Taipei shouldn't wait till the next demonstration.
(Karishma Vaswani is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
