Opinion | The Dhaka Blip: Why India Cannot Afford to Look Away

The news from our eastern neighbour, Bangladesh, may have registered as barely a blip on the Indian news cycle. The student wing of the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) swept the Dhaka University Central Students' Union (DUCSU) elections, a stunning victory that marks the first time an Islamist student group has gained control of this influential body since 1971. For many, it's just a student election in a foreign country. But for New Delhi, this is not just a blip - it is a worrying portent of things to come, a political tremor whose aftershocks could soon be felt on our side of the border.

To understand the significance, we must first look at the context. The Dhaka University election is more than just a campus poll; it is historically a political barometer for the nation. The victory of Islami Chhatra Shibir, the JeI's student wing, is a clear signal of deep-seated public frustration with the country's two traditional powerhouses: the (now banned) Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Both parties, over decades, have become synonymous - fairly or unfairly - with corruption, nepotism, and political violence, leaving a significant portion of the electorate disillusioned. 

Dearth Of Options

The student victory of JeI is less a ringing endorsement of Islamist fundamentalism and more a desperate cry for an alternative. The voters, who are not necessarily religious zealots, are turning to the JeI not because they are drawn to its ideology, but because it is perceived as the one political force not yet tainted by the pervasive rot of the old guard.  

This frustration is compounded by the political vacuum created by the recent removal of Sheikh Hasina's government following a mass uprising led by students. As the country navigates a fragile interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, the public is searching for a new direction. 

JeI's Time To Shine?

The JeI, having been suppressed and persecuted during the Awami League's long rule, is now finding a fertile ground to re-emerge and consolidate its influence. Its victory in a bastion of secular and progressive politics like Dhaka University underscores its growing appeal, particularly among a new generation of voters who did not witness the party's controversial role in the 1971 Liberation War.  
So, what does this mean for India, particularly with the crucial general elections in Bangladesh slated for February 2026? 

The traditional political landscape, which India has long been accustomed to dealing with, is in flux. The Awami League, once New Delhi's most reliable partner, is in disarray, with its leader in exile and its future uncertain. In any case, the ban means it cannot participate in the elections slated for February 2026. 

The BNP Is Struggling, Too

The BNP, while a major party, is also facing internal challenges and public skepticism. Begum Zia is back in Dhaka but ailing and inactive. The party's leadership, based in London for years, is widely seen as distant and unapproachable. 

This opens a clear path for the Jamaat. The Islamist group's grassroots network, built over years through social and welfare work, and its "clean" image - at least in the eyes of a frustrated electorate - could translate into significant gains in the upcoming polls.  

India Can't Look Away

A Jamaat-majority government or a powerful Jamaat presence in a new coalition would present a complex and potentially hostile scenario for India. While India's official foreign policy maintains a stance of non-interference, the reality is that events in our immediate neighbourhood are never purely "internal affairs". A more radical dispensation in Dhaka could embolden anti-India elements along the border, particularly in cooperation with the Pakistani ISI, and lead to a significant increase in security challenges. 

The Jamaat's ascent could also have grave implications for the Hindu minority in Bangladesh, which has historically been vulnerable to attacks and persecution during periods of Islamist political ascendancy. The JeI's historical role and ideological core, rooted in a rejection of secular democracy and a more radical, many would say extremist, interpretation of Islam, raise serious questions about its future conduct.  

The Dhaka University election is a wake-up call. It is a sign that the political tectonic plates in Bangladesh are shifting. India cannot afford to be caught off guard. New Delhi must closely monitor the situation, engage with all emerging political actors, including elements within the Jamaat, and prepare for a scenario where we may no longer have a friendly and stable government in Dhaka. 
The strategic partnership we have long relied upon with Bangladesh could be at risk, and the sooner we acknowledge and prepare for this new reality, the better equipped we will be to navigate the challenges that lie ahead. 

(Shashi Tharoor is an author, former diplomat, and Member of Parliament from Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, since 2009)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author