Opinion | Amir Hamza Attack Was A Symptom. A Deadlier Storm Is Brewing Within Lashkar

In the midst of the Iran war and its threatened re-emergence in an even fiercer avatar, some welcome news. Hamza, a founding member of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), was shot by unknown gunmen in Lahore and is said to be currently in critical condition.

The elimination of any terrorist anywhere is to be greeted with a sigh of relief. But the Lashkar is in a category of its own. As American negotiators label Iran as the worst terrorist state in the world, nothing Tehran has in its armoury can match what Pakistan has in its quiver of terrorist groups.

Amir Hamza As A 'Day 1' Node

Available reports say unidentified attackers opened fire on Hamza outside a news channel office in Lahore while he was walking on the streets. Hamza is no ordinary terrorist. A fiery speaker and writer, he was picked up by Zaki Ur Rehman Lakhvi in 1985, when he was a student at a madrassa in Punjab. This was long before the LeT was even formed. He was taken to meet Hafeez Saeed at his residence, and as a result of these and other meetings, the first 'institution' of the Lashkar, the Markaz Da'wa-al-Irshad (MDI), was established. Its publications division was headed by the enthusiastic Hamza, then in his early 20s. He also edited the monthly magazine Mujallah Ad-Dawah and the Al Jarar, the inflammatory rhetoric of both of which directly led to an increase in the membership of the organisation to more than 10,000 in less than three years. The tenor of these and other publications reveals some interesting aspects other than 'jihad' - primarily against India and then the US - and the whole 'heaven' rewards belief. It specifically endorses the Pakistan Army as the 'Army of Islam', contrasting it with corrupt politicians and civilians, and thereby justifying its every action. Hamza's position was that every Pakistani should be a 'symbolic Minister of Defence'. Another recent one was this: "When their combined fist of self-defence lands on the terrorists, we could see Modi falling flat on his face". All this was bolstered by references from the Quran and Sunna, providing a solid base for the Army, particularly the Chiefs whom Hamza eulogised to the hilt. 

But Hamza is not just talk. He went to the then Soviet Union to tie up with Salafist groups, and later to Iran to bolster Sunni resistance to the Shia majority. He was also at the core of the Afghan jihad, and, therefore, is well-linked with members of the original Taliban and the mujahideen. He was also a fundraiser of note, and, all in all, is a central figure of the Lashkar, embodying their absolute hatred for India and the US.

What His Loss Means

He's the historical memory of the group, and losing him would hit LeT leaders hard. The organisation, however, will survive, and perhaps even thrive as younger and even more radical leaders come up. 

That's the core of the issue. Lashkar has never been without its internal feuds. For instance, a major fissure was reported following the second marriage of Hafiz Saeed to a much younger woman, which, together with operational reasons, led to the estrangement between him and the operational chief Zaki-ur-Rehman. Following the 26/11 attack in Mumbai, Pakistan faced immense pressure to clean up its act, and several Lashkar leaders were 'arrested' and given showpiece sentences. Hamza, however, seems to have got away, and, in fact, seems to have been given yet another group to head: the Jaish-e-Manqafa. This helped the LeT raise financial resources, even as known fronts like the Falah-e-Insaniyat were shut down. That this was done with the full knowledge of the Pakistan 'establishment' is without doubt.

Lashkar-e-Taiba 'Regrouping'

Hamza seemed to have seven lives. Even as Operation Sindoor devastated the Lashkar headquarters at Muridke and eight other camps, killing several hundred cadres of both Lashkar and Jaish, Hamza disappeared, even as most leaders remained dormant for a while. Rumours arose of them being shifted out to Afghanistan and the border areas to prop up the Pakistan army's ongoing fight with the Tehreek-e-Taliban. 

The first to resurface again and threaten India with 'maritime terrorism' was Lashkar leader Saifullah Kasuri, who was seen in several videos addressing crowds, with armed men in the background. While this alarmed Indian agencies, speculation was also rife that Saifullah may have been making a bid for leadership in the aftermath of the death of several leaders. This gained currency when another leader, Bilal Arif Sarafi, was killed a month later at Muridke, amid rumours of infighting between groups. It would seem then that the Hamza attack is another instance of infighting at a time when the group is under stress and leadership hierarchies have been disrupted. All this would be great news for the Indian intelligence community, except that in recent weeks, in particular, a series of modules have been interdicted across the country, which indicates that the threat is extremely high. It's only worse that it is backed by rabid politicians.

The 'High Threat' In India

In April alone, India shut down at least three major terror modules. One was in Amritsar, and another in Kashmir, which had specific Lashkar Pakistani connections, with investigations ongoing across more than 10 states. A few days back, a key operative, Shabir Ahmed Lone, was nabbed on the Bangladesh border, with his arrest unveiling networks across the country, including in Tamil Nadu, and plans to attack major temples, including Kalkaji and the Lotus temple in the national capital. A number of drones were intercepted in Tarn Taran in the same month. Around the same time, Pakistan's Defence Minister, Khawaja Asif, was threatening to attack Kolkata, clearly indicating a foot in the door in Bangladesh. Days later, a major Lashkar operative was claiming that it was the Pahalgam attack that led to Pakistan's enhanced status in the US-Iran talks and its growing proximity with the US.

Clearly, terror networks are as much under stress as the Pakistani establishment is 'running with the hare and hunting with the hounds' in its mediation exercise. It is trying to keep the Saudis happy by deploying its aircraft and a large troop presence, even while the country's Field Marshal, Asim Munir, disembarks in Iran to mollify Tehran. In all this, Pakistan has the explicit support of US President Donald Trump. Surely, there could be no better time for Pakistan and its terrorist networks to set their terrorist plans against India in motion, and then appeal to the US for help when India inevitably retaliates. The churn within terrorist circles for the top spot, in what is, after all, an extremely wealthy organisation, may well lead to new terrorist leaders wanting to prove themselves, the most obvious means being an audacious attack on India. Hamza may be incapacitated, injured, or dead, but there are far worse and more vicious leaders vying to take his place. 

Brace yourself. Munir's next logical move would be to get the country's top post: the President. And he doesn't like to stop till he reaches the top.

(Tara Kartha is a former Director, National Security Council Secretariat)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author