Opinion | Why A 'Bangladesh' Proposal By Turkish Media Should Worry India

Soon after the Mecca pact between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey was signed, Turkish media Yeni Safak published a piece about the prospects of Bangladesh joining the pact. Without a byline, the article took full cognisance of India's discomfort at such a proposition but insisted that it would move Bangladesh "beyond bilateral asymmetry (with India)", which would signal a "mature, independent, foreign policy". "Pakistan and Turkiye would welcome this as a natural expansion of Islamic defence cooperation, while India would recalibrate its traditional approach to its eastern neighbour".

The Bangladesh Angle

Now, while not too much should be read into a media piece, Yeni Safak is not just another Turkish publication. It is an Islamist one, and close to the current ruling dispensation in Turkey. One of its most defining features in recent times has been its overwhelming focus on India, highlighting some of the most insignificant events in the country that give Turkey the opportunity to ridicule it. Suffice it to say that in this pursuit, it does not spare India's leadership.

Since 2024, the publication has become one of the most ardent supporters of Bangladesh's engineered uprising and is virulently anti-Hasina, only a logical extension of its anti-India stance. Given this background, Yeni Safak's article cannot be entirely dismissed as absurd. In fact, it is quite plausible that Turkey may try to get Bangladesh to join the pact, as its leaders have said that the deal is open to other interested countries. Turkey is also trying hard to develop defence relations with Bangladesh, along the lines of its defence ties with Pakistan.

And this is where India should be wary. The Mecca defence deal will be an enabler for Turkey, which is becoming an increasingly big security challenge for India.

India Need Not Worry About The Saudis

The pact itself need not worry India much. The greatest cohesive element in it, Saudi Arabia, has over the years developed close relations with India, which it is not about to erode, especially now. Bilateral relations between the two nations stand on their own merit. With the Saudis preparing for a post-oil economy and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's ambitious domestic projects, the Kingdom needs India. The Saudis have also committed to investing USD 100 billion in the country. At least 40 Indian companies have established headquarters in Saudi Arabia. Besides, India is one of the major Saudi energy importers, something that matters more than ever, what with the Iran conflict and now its Houthi surrogates tightening their chokehold on the main shipping arteries for Saudi exports. Bilateral relations between India and Saudi Arabia even involve defence, with both sides regularly conducting joint military exercises. The Saudis would not want to jeopardise this crucial relationship - certainly not for Pakistan.

In fact, last September, soon after the Saudi-Pakistan Mutual Defence Agreement was signed, a senior Saudi official told Reuters that the agreement was "a culmination of years of discussions". He said, "This is not a response to specific countries or specific events ... Our relationship with India is more robust than it has ever been. We will continue to grow this relationship and seek to contribute to regional peace in whichever way we can."

The Saudis did not invoke any NATO-type obligation when Pakistan began a border conflict with Afghanistan soon after the pact was signed, nor did Pakistan enter a combat role when Iran launched attacks on Saudi territory and vital infrastructure in the current Middle East conflict. There is also no hint of either Pakistan or Turkey starting any joint military intervention against the Houthis, who launched audacious attacks on Saudi Arabia. In fact, clarity seems to be lacking in exactly what would constitute "an attack" on one party to merit others joining in defensive roles. This much, then, can, therefore, be considered more posturing than resolve. However, defence cooperation in bankrolling defence innovation, R&D, and production, is a given. At least Turkey will make sure it is, because this is where it has an upper hand.

Turkey Has The Biggest Win

Turkey's military industrial complex is a formidable one and has been supported by Europe for decades now. The country's defence doctrine is anchored in pursuing a policy that will help it achieve autonomy in defence requirements and, subsequently, become a global defence exporter. But the Turkish economy is struggling, with inflation, price rise, and a plummeting lira. The Mecca pact is, therefore, a lifeline for Turkey in more ways than one.

First, it opens up avenues for increasing the export of Turkish-manufactured weaponry to both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, ensuring cash inflows to its economy.

Second, it will open up access to Saudi resources and investments for Turkish defence manufacturing and critical infrastructure. This will shape a new alternative to Western aid, primarily US arms supplies. In this context, the development of TAI KAAN fighter jets is of particular significance. Both Turkey and the Saudis want to acquire the F-35 fighter aircraft from the US, but Israel has been lobbying hard against this. The KAAN, which originally began as a means to replace Turkey's F16 fleet, can, once completed, be a substitute for the F-35. For the Saudis, this would be a straight buy and also give them some leverage over the craft's manufacturing. Besides, Turkey has emerged as a champion drone and naval platforms producer. Earlier this year, it unveiled its first intercontinental ballistic missile prototype, the 'Yildirimhan', which has a range of 6,000km, with a maximum speed of Mach 25 and a payload capacity of 3,000 kilograms.

Ankara's defence industry is growing exponentially, with more countries procuring or expressing interest in buying its defence wares. Certainly, the Mecca pact would also facilitate easier defence procurement from Turkey for the other two members.

The Unusual Allure Of Turkish Ideology

Third, the ideological threat. The ideology of Turkey's current ruling dispensation is anchored in political Islam, which makes it an unwavering ally of Islamist groups around the globe, from Somalia to Gaza, including South Asia's Jamaat-i-Islami, both in Pakistan and in Bangladesh. However, its long, imperial and Sufi heritage, as well as its proximity to Europe, imbue it with a certain sophistication, such that Turkey can flaunt its ideology even in places where Islamism is frowned upon. The starkest example would be Azerbaijan, as also Central Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa, and even some corners of India. While promoting Muslim identity, Turkey hopes to expand its market and defence exports too. Is it a coincidence then that it is Ankara that keeps repeating that the Mecca Pact is open to expansion?

The Mecca pact will potentially increase the ideological challenge globally. Both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have helped the spread of Wahhabism and jihadism around the world. While Saudi Arabia may be promoting reforms and battling radicalism domestically, Pakistan's situation is curious. Turkey, meanwhile, is exporting its ideology by packaging it in more culturally refined terms.

Finally, Turkey wins big where trade corridors are concerned - probably its biggest advantage. For a while now, it has been pushing to position itself as a major energy and transit hub. The old Hejaz railway line, which connected Turkish lands to Mecca during the Ottoman era, is being revived. The Saudis have ruled out normalisation of ties with Israel, preferring instead, as we now see, to partner with its once-arch-rival in the region, Turkey. The much-touted and anticipated India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), originally envisaged to pass through Israel, is dead in its original form, at least for now. Instead, it is being rerouted via Jordan through Syria and Turkey. The IMEC, interestingly, had been unveiled in 2023, during the G20 summit in Delhi, where Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had been present. In the ensuing days, he had become one of its strongest critics, urging that Turkey should be a vital node in the network. His wish seems to be coming true now. Sure, enormous investments would be needed for the construction of vital infrastructure, but Saudi largesse would make that possible - another reason why the Saudis included Turkey in the pact.

All these factors are worrisome to India. As of now, the Mecca pact, apart from providing the Saudis with varied layers of deterrence, seems to be benefiting Turkey the most. India should be watchful and prepared. In recent times, the government has tried to make an outreach to Turkey in spite of the latter's role in Operation Sindoor. It is best to be patient before making any further outreach. The Yeni Safak article can be a good barometer for understanding Turkish strategy. For, according to Turkish analysts themselves, Turkey will not stop focusing on Kashmir.

(The author is a senior journalist)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author