Opinion | Alliance Calling: AIADMK-BJP May Have Finally Learnt A Hard Lesson

It was a sight to behold when K. Annamalai, the Tamil Nadu president of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), flogged himself with a rope in Coimbatore last December. The self-flagellation was an act of protest—prompted by the sexual assault of a student at Anna University—even if it left people wondering whether Annamalai was trying to catch the attention of his national leadership. For, he had let the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) down, failing to win a single seat from the state in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls even after mounting a high-decibel campaign.

Whatever the motive behind Annamalai's act of ‘penance', it grabbed enough eyeballs, given as it came after his three-month absence from the state owing to a fellowship he was pursuing in the UK. It was rumoured that the central leadership of the BJP was disappointed with zero returns in the Lok Sabha polls, especially after Prime Minister Modi made as many as seven visits to Tamil Nadu in the run-up to the elections.

Lost Opportunities

True, the BJP did make incremental gains in the state last year, with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) cumulatively registering 18.28% votes. But a post-poll analysis showed that an alliance with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) could have fetched the combine as many as 13 out of the 39 Lok Sabha seats in the state. The break also brought about a crucial change in Annamalai's attitude towards its once-ally AIADMK, the primary opposition party that he had relentlessly attacked in the past.

A visibly transformed Annamalai has of late been training his guns on the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), along with the fledgling Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), floated by superstar Vijay. During Annamalai's sabbatical, the TVK held its first political conference in Villupuram. More importantly, Udhayanidhi Stalin was made the deputy chief minister during his absence too. 

In fact, Tamil Nadu's political firmament underwent so much change that it may not be wrong to argue that Annamalai's novelty may have worn off.

Hints Of Rapprochement?

There is an apparent political realignment on the cards in Tamil Nadu, with the BJP likely to resume its partnership with the AIADMK in the run-up to the assembly polls in 2026. Just last week, AIADMK leader Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) visited Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi. Whereas EPS tried to play down the meeting, Shah acknowledged that talks for a formal alliance were indeed on. 
For both the AIADMK and the BJP, an alliance is necessary to stand a fighting chance in 2026.

Moreover, it should be remembered that in the previous assembly polls in 2021, the NDA led by the AIADMK had polled only 4.5% fewer votes than the DMK front despite two-term anti-incumbency and the passing of the talismanic J. Jayalalitha. Since then, the AIADMK has expelled rebels led by former chief minister O. Pannerselvam (OPS), but it still very much remains a force to reckon with in Tamil Nadu, both on account of its organisational heft and the ‘Two leaves' election symbol.

To be sure, the BJP has grown stronger in the interim, with a markedly improved showing in the Lok Sabha election, although the saffron party would find it tough to replicate that success in a state election. As for the AIADMK, which is undergoing an existential crisis, going back to the BJP wasn't a straightforward choice either. According to some reports, the Dravidian party was apparently exploring an alliance with Vijay's TVK, though the talks fell through.

A New Kid On The Block

Vijay's TVK was unveiled in February 2024, but it did not contest the Lok Sabha polls that followed a few months later. Now, with Vijay all set to wrap up his last film—his sixty-ninth—the superstar has given up on a lucrative acting career, while still in his prime, and turned to politics. It would indeed be far-fetched to assume that Vijay could replicate the success of matinee idol MG Ramachandran, but even so, he is the strongest lateral entrant to have come from Kollywood in recent years.

Unlike Vijaykanth in 2006 or Kamal Haasan in 2021—not to forget Rajnikanth's political plunge that was not to be—Vijay seems to have a more methodical approach to his political debut. Whether the Vijay Makkal Iyakkam—the fan association that the actor converted into a social outfit in 2009, before metamorphosing into the TVK—could shape-shift into an out-and-out political party is a moot question. The actor had even said that he was willing to do business with other political parties and form a coalition under his leadership.

In fact, the AIADMK's talks with the TVK fell apart solely over this issue—of projecting Vijay as the chief ministerial candidate in 2026. For a party that has ruled the state for over three decades, playing second fiddle to a new kid on the block wasn't exactly proper. 

A Difficult Friendship

An alliance between the AIADMK and the BJP isn't an easy thing to achieve, even with Annamalai finally taming his aggression. Moreover, the ruling DMK has been playing up emotive issues such as the Centre's three-language policy and the pending delimitation exercise in an effort to combat anti-incumbency. The AIADMK broadly subscribes to the same political ideology as the DMK, and thus, it cannot really afford to take a position completely at variance on these issues.

This is why an AIADMK-BJP alliance, if it does come to fruition, will have to be justified as a pragmatic political formation, one that focuses on more typical issues such as law-and-order and corruption. In any case, EPS is not keen to deal with Annamalai in an alliance, and it is assumed that the BJP would indulge the AIADMK at least on that count. Here's how...

Caste Equations

Historically, both the Gounder and the Thevar communities in Tamil Nadu have aligned with the AIADMK. Jayalalitha's former aide, VK Sasikala, as well as former chief minister O. Palaniswami—now estranged from the AIADMK—hail from the Thevar community. It is expected that the BJP will promote a Thevar leader such as Nagendran, now the leader of the party in the state legislative assembly, to replace Annamalai (Nagendran's base lies in the southern district of Tirunelveli). Of course, this would be rationalised as a move necessitated by social engineering, with both EPS and Annamalai hailing from the Gounder community.

Conversely, the BJP may push to get AIADMK rebels back into the NDA fold if the effort to unite the splinter factions with the mothership comes to naught. The saffron party will also try to build a grand NDA coalition beyond the AIADMK and the Vanniar outfit, the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK). As things stand, an alliance of the AIADMK and the BJP would dominate the DMK in western Tamil Nadu or the Kongu belt, where the Congress once had the upper hand. 

But, this wouldn't suffice. The alliance would have to shore up its base in southern and northern Tamil Nadu to combat the DMK and the TVK. There is a fourth player too: the Tamil Nationalist Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), led by actor Seeman.

Ideological Tightrope

For the alliance to stand any chance at winning, the BJP will have to wait until the 2026 election before it takes up the issue of delimitation. 

The DMK, meanwhile, is expected to double down on the ‘Hindi imposition' plank as well, but how much it will resonate remains to be seen. The ruling party is hoping that its welfare schemes for women—the free bus rides and monthly monetary allowance of Rs 1000—as well as its pitch for Tamil pride will see it through. 

Be that as it may, there are some crucial chinks in the DMK's arsenal, which a formidable alliance can tap into if it acts effectively. There is visible anti-government sentiment among the state's urban middle class over a hike in power tariff and property taxes. Moreover, the roughly two million state government employees and pensioners are also miffed with the ruling government for not honouring its manifesto promise of hiking salaries and reverting to the old pension scheme.

If the AIADMK-BJP combine can mount a foolproof campaign anchored on bread-and-butter issues, victory may not be so unimaginable after all in Tamil Nadu.

(Anand Kochukudy is a senior journalist and columnist)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author