Opinion | A New Sunni Bloc Is Taking Shape, And Pak May Be Its Biggest Winner

At a recent press briefing to commemorate the first anniversary of Operation Sindoor, Lieutenant General Rajiv Ghai, the Deputy Chief of Army Staff, publicly identified Turkey as a direct adversary, referring to Turkish military support to Pakistan during Operation Sindoor. Militarily, at least, India perceives Turkey to be a threat of almost the same magnitude as Pakistan. This military support, in fact, led to a major downturn in bilateral relationships, which included the government cancelling contracts to Turkish firms and a downtick in Indian tourism to Turkey.

Now, ironically, the war between Israel-US and Iran has led to the ascendancy of two of India's major adversaries - Pakistan and Turkiye. Already locked in a close embrace militarily, they are now ideologically pushing for an 'Islamic NATO'. Recent reports that Pakistan's Defence Minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, told a local news outlet that Turkey and Qatar could join the defence pact signed last year between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, have caused a stir, setting off speculation about an Islamic NATO taking shape.

A Concept Long On The Cards

To be fair, the term 'Islamic NATO' is not new. It has been around for more than a decade, when the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia announced the formation of an Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition (IMCTC) to fight "terrorism". This was in 2015. A year before that, the Saudis had astonished the international community with their decision to militarily intervene in Yemen, whose capital, Sanaa, had fallen to Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. This marked a paradigm shift in Saudi politics as the Kingdom had usually kept a low profile until then, preferring to leverage its elevated position in the Muslim world and its oil wealth, pulling strings behind the scenes. 

The Arab Spring put paid to that. Along with the ascendancy of its main and traditional rival, Iran, it also engendered Sunni terror groups, such as the Islamic State. A perceived indifference on the part of the Obama administration to these threats convinced the Saudis that they needed to act. Since Pakistan had initially refused to perform its duties as the traditional Saudi client state, the Kingdom had to convince the Muslim world to take collective action. Though Yemen produced a stalemate, a number of countries, mostly all members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), joined in. In January 2017, the Former Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan, General Raheel Sharif, was named the IMCTC's first commander. However, intra-Arab rivalry, a downturn in Saudi-Turkish relations, and the refusal of military support by some member states, such as Bangladesh, hamstrung the coalition from taking any action.

Why The Sudden Revival Of Interest

Talks around an Islamic NATO have now once again been revived, beginning with sudden Israeli strikes on Qatar last year, allegedly targeting Hamas leaders. The strikes highlighted the vulnerabilities of the regional countries, already grappling with both Iran's Shiite emboldenment and Sunni terrorism, to the new threat of Israeli unilateralism. Moreover, Qatar hosted the US's largest overseas military base and had been designated a "major non-NATO ally". 

The Arab street already harboured great resentment against Israel because of its military action in the Gaza Strip. The Gulf monarchies could not allow themselves to look weak in the face of attacks by Israel.

At an emergency summit organised by the Arab League and the OIC soon after, it was Egyptian officials who suggested a NATO-style, joint task force for Arab nations. Egypt has the largest military in the Arab world.

The most concrete action that occurred in the aftermath, however, was the conclusion of the Saudi-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement. A clause in it says an attack on one would be considered as an attack on the other, mirroring Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization on collective defence, the core principle of the organisation. Soon after, Turkey evinced an interest in joining the partnership, giving traction to both the term and idea of an 'Islamic NATO', which more accurately should be called a Sunni NATO, given that all these countries are Sunni-majority countries.

For Turkey, there was a sound reason for participating in such a pact for its deterrence value. Israel, once a friend, has come to represent its greatest security challenge over the past few years. The strikes on Qatar spooked it, too. In fact, when the first direct Israel-Iran 12-day conflict had broken out, Turkish colleagues had voiced apprehension that Turkey would be the next Israeli target. Soon after the current war broke out, Turkey again amplified this apprehension.

Turkey's Advantage

However, there is another sound reason for Turkey to want to be part of such a grouping. With its largest standing army in NATO, access to the organisation's cutting-edge technology and its own burgeoning defence industry, Turkey wants to achieve both defence autonomy and self-sufficiency, as well as be amongst the world's foremost defence exporters. With a good defence partnership already in place with Pakistan, proximity to Riyadh would ensure a lucrative defence market as well as resources for developing its defence industry. Nevertheless, the lingering differences with the Saudis did not allow for any forward movement along this track. 

Until now.

If under the former Obama administration the Arab Gulf felt that its concerns were no longer a priority for the USA, then the war with Iran under the current Trump administration has confirmed two unpalatable truths: one, expensive defence procurement from the US was no guarantee of security against Iran, and two, the US would prioritise Israel's security over that of the Arabs.

Given that Iran battered Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, many had expected Pakistan to be drawn into the conflict. The news that Pakistan deployed around 13,000 troops, together with a squadron of JF-17 fighter jets, drone units, and Chinese-made HQ-9 air defence systems in Saudi Arabia, does not come as a surprise.

This may be sufficient cause for the Saudis to paper over differences with Turkey, as well as with Qatar. Meanwhile, Egypt, another potential member of such a grouping, was already beholden to the Saudis for helping to overthrow the Muslim Brotherhood government of Mohammed Morsi and replace it with the government headed by President Abdel Fatah Al Sisi.

Growing Cooperation

Since then, the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey have met three times, including in Islamabad, while their deputy foreign ministers have met once. And now, Khawaja Asif has also referred to Qatar as one of the potential members. If the idea does come to fruition, then such a bloc would have been a long time in making. And it would have a formidable spread, going all the way from the Arabian Sea to the Mediterranean, controlling strategic ports, shipping and maritime routes. Both Pakistan and Turkey have battle-hardened, large standing armies and a formidable military arsenal - between 2019 and 2023, Turkey accounted for 1.6% of global arms exports. While the most famous of commodities offered by Turkey are its drones, it also offers a variety of other weapons systems, including armoured vehicles and corvettes. Saudi Arabia and Qatar also have enormous oil and gas revenues at their disposal for financially supporting such an alliance. Pakistan has an army of approximately 650,000 troops. Its biggest leverage, however, is its nuclear arsenal, being that it is the only nuclear-armed Muslim state in the world. So, Pakistan would be the biggest winner in such a grouping.

Pakistan In The Spotlight

As it is, Pakistan is having its moment in the sun. Instead of getting sucked into active combat, it is playing the role of a mediator. The ceasefire, though fragile, has by and large held till now. Though the latest publication of leaked classified information by the American news outlet Dropsite reveals significant trust deficits between Iran and Pakistan, the latter has scored mileage by allowing Tehran to access trade routes through its territory even as the US imposes a blockade on Iranian ports. It has also allowed Iran to park fighter aircraft on its territory to secure them from further US or Israeli bombardment. Iran and Saudi Arabia are also engaging with each other through their respective foreign ministers.

Ironically, a war that India had nothing to do with has brought it not just economic hardship but also significantly empowered its rivals. India will, thus, have to carefully monitor and recalibrate its policies regarding both West Asia and Pakistan.

(The author is a senior journalist)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author