Analysis | BJP's Mother of All Resets: An Overhaul To Fix Its Perception Problem

The clock is ticking for the BJP. The party is 180 days away from the start of a countdown for back-to-back 16 assembly elections in 2027-2028. In 2027 alone it has to defend its turf in five states, including Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh plus it aims to dislodge the AAP in Punjab and Congress in Himachal Pradesh.

Top sources in the party say the brass is out for a "mother of all resets" of Modi era which may see many inclusions, ejections and serious overhaul.

"The challenges have mounted. It's not merely about drift in key vote segments like youth or upper caste, or inflation, corruption issues dogging the party. The Hindutva wave has diminished. Right now, the narrative seems to be growing that we lack ideas to fix problems. Minor cosmetic tweaking won't work. A big policy and political push are desperately needed and a restructured party and government to manage the push can be the first step. Be prepared for a surgical strike," a senior BJP leader noted.

It's a given that after 27 odd months of Modi 3.0, for the first time since 2014 the BJP is battling a barrage of negative narratives and political churn. It can't be out to send weak morse code signals.

BJP president Nitin Nabin's team announced a week ago left a "picture abhi baki hai" feeling.

It was a typical organisational rejig with several ingredients. Trusted leaders with good track record were retained, some old and new faces were inducted with an eye on socio-political equations and challenges. But the list had to be dissected like a frog in an anatomy class to find the signals it was supposed to be emitting.

But now what's the size of the canvas for the reset for the BJP and RSS brass?

The Political Reset

BJP insiders say at the party level changes are likely in the top decision making bodies like the Parliamentary Board (PB). Its KRA ranges from green flagging who will contest an assembly seat to who will be the Prime Minister.

The parliamentary board is big on powers but small in size. Nitin Nabin's playing XI doesn't have much scope for change.

Prime Minister M Narendra Modi and Home minister Amit shah will be there.

Rajnath Singh is the oldest serving member. UP Assembly polls are barely six months away. Upper caste Thakur voters drifted away in 2024 Lok Sabha polls and dented the party's harvest.

Including another Thakur member will create a smaller boom than removing him. So, Rajnath Singh may not be replaced.

BL Santosh, the general secretary organisation, will stay. That means there are 7 berths left to play around. These are occupied by JP Nadda, BS Yediyurappa, Sarbananda Sonowal, K Laxman, Iqbal Lalpura, Sudha Yadav and Satyanarain Jaitya.

JP Nadda, the health minister, is there as the ex president of the party. One rider in the favour of his continuance, though not clinching, is that his home state of Himachal Pradesh votes in November 2027. The other is that he understands the work style of the BJPs top duo.

That reduces the field to just six berths. But deciding who to eject will be tough.

BS Yeddiyurappa, the BJP's ex Karnataka conquerer, turned 80 in February this year. While plotting his exit the BJP and RSS have to factor in that Karnataka's dominant caste, Lingayats, still have their man in BJP's top decision making. Karnataka assembly polls are due in May 2028.

Assam voted in April this year. Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal is a big north east face and the region is a major focus area for the BJP. His tribal background provides him a two in one advantage.

Iqbal Singh Lalpura is the current minority face (as there is no Muslim in the board). He is a former IPS officer, who in 1978 arrested separatist leader Jarnail Singh Bhindrawale after the Sikh-Nirankari clash. He has served as the chairman of the National Commission for Minorities. The BJP can bring in a younger more visible Sikh face with an eye on Punjab Assembly polls in February 2027.

Sudha Yadav comes from Haryana. Modi as BJP's Haryana incharge in 1999, even before he became Gujarat CM, had backed her for the Mahendragarh LS seat.

It's most likely that Satyanarayan Jaitya may be replaced. The BJP can bring in some more prominent backward, SC, young and woman face in the parliamentary board to send out a signal.

But the elephant in the room is the inclusion of chief ministers in the panel. In January 2006 Rajnath Singh as president had inducted the then Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi in the board, but dropped him in 2007.

In 2013 the tide had turned. Modi was brought back on the board in March before being elevated as the BJP's campaign committee chief in June that year and the Prime Minister face in September.

In August 2022 Shivraj Singh Chouhan ( then MP CM) was dropped from the board and an informal "no CMs in top body rule" came into play.

The rationale provided was - how can chief ministers as board members preside over decisions on chief ministers.

But after a recent conclave there are indications that the party's ideological mentor, the RSS is pushing for UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath and Maharashtra's Devendra Fadnavis' inclusion.

The catch: both are upper caste members. This will help the BJP reach out to the section which seems to be unhappy.

Both bring their own political strengths to the board. Yogi brings Hindutva stridence, mass mobilisation and pelf of UP, while Fadnavis brings administrative experience, footwork for working with alliance partners and the political weight of Maharashtra.

Yogi, despite the wariness in Delhi, has emerged as one of the most sought after campaigners in most states after Modi. His inclusion in the board will cement his national stature ahead of UP polls.

Devendra Fadnavis is considered as one of the BJP's future faces.

Key here is that if the BJP's decides to drop the "no CM in the board rule" it can't leave Yogi out. The opposition Samajwadi Party in UP will make a big meal of the exclusion to woo the "Thakur voter" claiming he has no standing in the party. But the BJP brass may be averse to inducting only Yogi Adityanath as that may provide him an unmatched status in the party.

The Governance Reset

A berth in the Union Council of minister is the shiniest signal with big scope to deliver. And that's why the biggest reset is expected in the Modi Council of Ministers.

Depending on evolving situations and equations, PM Modi has been recalibrating his council regularly since 2014. After coming to power in May 2014, he brought in 21 ministers in November 2014. In July 2016, five ministers were dropped and 19 new faces were brought in. In November 2017, there were six resignations, nine inductions and four promotions.

Midstream in July 2021, Modi 2.0 was hit by Covid "mishandling" tsunami and a faltering economy. PM Modi carried out his biggest Council of Minister reshuffle since 2014. 36 new ministers were inducted, 12 ministers resigned and 7 were promoted.

Let's first do the basic math for what changes are possible.

Home Minister Amit Shah with Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Currently the strength of the Council of Ministers is 68 plus PM Modi. As per rules the council including the PM can have 81 members. This means there is room for 12 inductions. 

The student protests against exam paper leak led to Dharmendra Pradhan's resignation. Ravneet Bittu and George Kurien stepped out as their Rajya Sabha terms ended. Harsh Malhotra and Pankaj Chaudhry have been deputed as Delhi and UP BJP chiefs respectively.

The Rajya Sabha terms of Petroleum Minister Hardeep Puri and Minister of State for Social Justice B L Verma end in November.

Piyush Goyal's commerce and industry may see a new minister if the BJP enforces the 'one-man one-post' rule after he was sent to the party as National Treasurer. However, Goyal is leading India's trade talks with the US and an exception is likely to be made in his case.

Next, sources in the BJP say, based on performance and relevance 12-18 ministers may either be shunted out or sent to the organisation for political duties.

This expands the scope of new inductions to almost 30 ministers.

Portfolios may be reallocated depending on work load and the capabilities of the ministers.

A dozen cabinet ministers out of 29, all 5 MoS (independent charge) and 17 MoS hold two or more portfolios.

Socio-political equations dictate who enters or exits the council. Currently the council has 27 ministers from OBC, 10 odd from SC, five from ST and five from religious minority. There are seven women ministers. The BJP will try to improve the presence of targeted groups.

Then the average age of the council is 58 years. But there are ministers like HAM leader Jiten Ram Manjhi who turns 82 in October. The Prime Minister may like to bring this down by inducting some young leaders.

But the reset is not likely to be driven by mere equations but also alliances and performance.

Unlike the first two full majority terms, the BJP faces coalition pressures in the third term. Allies want better and more. This can reduce the elbow room for the party.

The Eknath Shinde faction after Operation Tiger has 13 MPs. Currently the party has just one MoS berth. The party has hinted to the BJP that their leader's MP son Shrikant Shinde is ready for a ministerial posting.

The LJP( RV) led by Chirag Paswan has five MPs as it won all seats contested in 2024. The BJP is planning to use Paswan in UP as his Bihar based party enjoys strong support base among Dalits.

Paswan wants one of the ministries held by his father. An elevation from Food Processing may improve the young leader's profile.

In June this year 20 TMC MPs abandoned Mamata Banerjee to merge with the Nationalist Citizen Party of India (NCPI). They may seek rewards in the form of cabinet berths. But the petition against their defection in Supreme Court is a hurdle.

Raghav Chadha and six other MPs hopped over from the AAP to join the BJP. Data man Sandeep Pathak has been inducted into Nitin Nabin's team. Raghav Chaddha's entry in the council could be a signal to voters in Punjab.

Then there are caste and regional signals to be sent out. Induction of young leaders or those with influence among different segments is on the cards. To improve regional balance or equations for coming Assembly polls, leaders from Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat may be inducted.

The Wildcard Entries

Some sources say there might be lateral entries in the cabinet on the lines of S Jaishankar and Hardeep Singh Puri, who at one time joined the cabinet from a bureaucratic career without any political initiation. Some even say the name of Tata sons chairman N Chandrashekharan is on the discussion table. The rumours about ex-RBI governor Shaktikanta Das moving to the cabinet have calmed down. A post on X by PM Modi on August 18 extending birthday greetings to finance minister Nirmala sitaraman almost ended speculations about a change in the finance portfolio.

"She is adding momentum to our endeavour of being a strong and self-reliant India," PM had posted.

Nitin Gadkari set the cabinet rejig speculation pot boiling with a remark in Nagpur when he said, "I can't work much now; the new generation should be given a chance to work." Later Gadkari's office clarified that Nitin Gadkari's statement "had nothing to do with politics."

This however has intensified the buzz on who among the members of the present council will be retained. For that PM Modi has his own performance trackers. In May this year the government, in a first-of-its-kind exercise, evaluated the performance of ministries and their departments on key administrative indicators. A ranking of ministries was presented by the Cabinet secretary TV Somanathan during a Council of Ministers meeting . Recently Modi met secretaries of union ministries and discussed performance and push for two key themes - less government-more governance and self-reliance.

In a meeting on July 24, PM Modi asked his council colleagues to get more active on social media, especially Instagram.

He wanted them to move beyond traditional, "sarkari mai-baap" type press statements, text-heavy social media posts, and speak the language of the younger generation.

One month later a performance report was ready. PM Modi's five selfie style Instagram reels posted between July 23-31, crossed combined total of over 120 crore views. This marked a big change in how he connects online.

His ministers ramped up their activity. Almost 28 out of 29 cabinet ministers increased their Instagram activity barring JD(U)'s Rajiv Ranjan Singh (Lalan Singh).

Between August 11-24, there were 1,179 posts by ministers and each gained an average 80 thousand followers. Amit Shah and S Jaishankar topped the list in follower growth despite few posts. On the other hand, the negative narrative over ethanol mixing in petrol and poorly built new highways saw a drop in the following of highway man Nitin Gadkari despite a large number of posts.

Social media popularity doesn't necessarily translate into votes but it is set to become a selection filter for a berth in the council of ministers.

Footnote

The BJP has done well in recent elections but the reset exercise underway by no means reflects the swagger of a victor.

This time the need for change is not dictated by Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo asserting their control or the RSS pushing for its men and agenda. The midterm course correction's undercurrent is concern over the narratives and a need for fixing the image.

Post CJP protests there is clarity that policies and plans matter but not as much as perception. In the new teams, the BJP and the Sangh aren't looking for the right people to merely correct politics and governance. The battle this time is to regain credibility. As the party has entered a phase which is going to be the launch pad for a national face after a political force called Narendra Modi.