For Years, Saudi Saw Houthis As Yemen's Problem. Then, A Knock On The Door

Saudi air defences shot down a Houthi drone south of Mecca before it entered the airspace of Islam's holiest city last night. It would have definitely occurred to the Houthis in neighbouring Yemen that their drone attack attempt on Mecca, if successful, would cross a point of no return that could possibly lead to an apocalyptic situation where the entire world gets involved.

The Houthis' beef with Saudi Arabia came much later and actual fighting began late in the overall timeline of the conflict that now involves powerful belligerents. It began as a small insurgency in the mountains of northern Yemen near the Saudi border with religion and politics as the fuel in the 1990s.

Its founder, Hussein al-Houthi, began drawing a large number of armed followers after he led several anti-government protests. The entire fighting force came from northern Yemen's Saada region.

In 2004, Yemeni government forces began operations against Hussein al-Houthi and killed him. Instead of successfully smashing the Houthi insurgency, the Yemeni government found itself facing hordes of incoming armed militia inspired by Hussein al-Houthi, whose killing turned him into a symbolic figure and a hero. His brother, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, took charge of the Houthi militia. They fought the Yemeni government in six wars between 2004 and 2010 - called the Saada Wars - with a majority of the fighting happening in the northern regions of the nation.

The Houthis returned every time after a ceasefire with the government forces was signed. This meant the Yemeni military never truly defeated the militia.

Before the events that would eventually pull Saudi Arabia into the conflict began in 2009, the Houthis had been sending their leaders to Iran for religious training and hardcore indoctrination. Iran was just a shadow at that time and the Houthis' main enemy was the Yemeni government, which they planned to overthrow because they felt the government was not fair to their people.

The conflict today has evolved into a proxy war with Iran firmly supporting the Houthis in their attacks on Saudi forces along the borders. Military hardware for modern warfare like drones and missiles supplied by Iran have changed the Houthis from what the Western press usually called 'Houthi militia' to something much bigger - not as big as regular government forces but also not as weak as a small insurgency.

The Houthis already had access to limited quantities of old ballistic missiles that belonged to the Yemeni government. In 2015 - six years after Saudi entered the conflict - the Houthis became the first non-state actor or militia anywhere in the world to launch a ballistic missile. The short-range ballistic missile OTR-21 Tochka hit a military base in Yemen, killing dozens of soldiers of a coalition against the Houthis led by the Saudis.

And, six years before this devastating attack, in 2009, Saudi Arabia detected many Houthi insurgents coming into their territory and attacking the kingdom's border installations. Saudi Arabia until then had seen the Houthi insurgency as Yemen's domestic problem and had hoped that it would never reach their doorstep.

The first clashes between Saudi and Houthi forces began around this time. The Royal Saudi Air Force sent strike missions against the Houthi fighters and began smashing the militia's supply lines, equipment and other military targets.

The fighting exposed several weaknesses in Saudi border defences and showed the Houthis' ability to conduct cross-border operations despite limited resources.

In September 2014, Houthi fighters captured Yemen's capital Sanaa and as a result all government institutions fell. The then president Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi stayed in office but wielded no power, surrounded by the Houthis and their allies. The following year Hadi fled Yemen and eventually reached Saudi Arabia, while back home the Houthis - which started as a small insurgency - became the de facto rulers of the capital city and larger parts of Yemen's northern regions.

From that development onwards, Saudi leaders feared a regional shift in power similar to Iran's influence through allied groups in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria. The Houthis had already established a working relationship with Iran by then. Iran denies arming the Houthis but smuggled Iranian weapons and parts have been seized from numerous shipments bound for Yemen.

The large-scale Saudi offensive began in March 2015 with a coalition of Arab states to restore the government of the exiled Yemeni president. It has been years and years of stalemate since then.

During this period, other nations including the UAE, the US, Britain and Israel have carried out airstrikes against Houthi fighters but they continued to grow stronger. It has come to a point that today the Iran-backed Houthis are approaching a key maritime choke point and striking Saudi oil facilities.

The Houthis have a wide array of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones that resemble Iranian models. These can reach all the Gulf states as well as Israel. They have used retrofitted ballistic missiles as anti-ship missiles, which was unheard of until 2023.

In recent weeks, news reports by AP said anti-Houthi forces have fallen back from one position after another as the rebels have advanced toward the Bab el-Mandeb, a narrow strait between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

The Saudis appear reluctant to enter another full-scale war with the Houthis as a ground campaign would involve prolonged fighting and high casualties. The US, still preoccupied with Iran, also appears keen to stay out and a Saudi mutual defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan signed last month has yet to be activated.