Religion, Caste Factor In UP Battle: Prannoy Roy's Analysis | Read

  • 21:43
  • Published On: March 20, 2019
Cinema View
Embed
In today's episode of NDTV's 'The Countdown', Prannoy Roy, Shekhar Gupta, Dorab R Sopariwala and NDTV's Kamal Khan talk about the caste angle in Uttar Pradesh politics and how the ordinary voter casts her franchise along these lines. The Yadavs and Jatavs support the SP and BSP alliance in the majority. However, the answer to this year's election lies in whether the BJP or the Congress can capitalise on the balance of the votes.

Here are the highlights for the third episode of 'The Countdown':

Prannoy Roy: Let's have a look at the characteristic of the voter in Uttar Pradesh. The Hindu vote (in Uttar Pradesh) is 80%, just like the whole country. But Muslims are much higher than the all-India average. All India average is 14%, but the average in UP is 19%, 5% higher than the all-India average. So Muslims are very important.

Muslim, Scheduled Caste votes are key in Uttar Pradesh



Scheduled Castes also much more important than all-India level. For all-India, its 17%, but in UP, its 21%, 4% higher. Muslim Scheduled Castes are very important in UP.

Let's take a look at the caste-wise and whether any alliance would, with Congress would damage the fortunes of the SP or BSP. Is that their big worry?

SP-BSP have more to fear from BJP on Yadav votes in Uttar Pradesh



Prannoy Roy: Look at the Yadav vote. SP & BSP have 80% of it. But who has the rest? Not Congress with 4%, the BJP has 16% of the Yadav vote. So, the BJP shouldn't fear the Congress eating into the Yadav vote.

What about the Jatav vote? Is Mayawati worried of Congress eating into her vote?

Mayawati's competition for Jatav votes is BJP, not Congress



SP & BSP have 79% of the Jatav vote. You don't see this in many of the other states. So who has the rest 21%? Congress has only 3% of the Jatav vote. BJP has 17%. So Congress is not a threat to Mayawati.

Let's have a look at the Brahmins. A lot of Congress leaders we met said we will take all the Brahmin vote from the BJP. But what's the fact?

Congress no match for BJP or even SP-BSP in Brahmin votes



Prannoy Roy: It's unlikely because fewer Brahmins vote for Congress than for SP-BSP. The Brahmin vote, 67% goes for BJP, which is huge. The balance, SP-BSP gets 21% and Congress is 12%. It's not as though Congress will get most of the votes. It's not like they will cut the Brahmin vote from BJP. But they're nothing with the Brahmins.

Dorab R Sopariwala: But question is they're 8% overall and 12% among Brahmins. SP-BSP is 40% overall and 12% among Brahmins. But nothing big is available.

Shekhar Gupta: Even more touching is the other fantasy of Congress, that they shouldn't align with BSP because we have common voter base. There is no common voter base anymore. Congress is living in the 70s.

NDTV's Kamal Khan: "Without an alliance, the perception is that in this polarised atmosphere, a big chunk of the Hindu vote is with the BJP. The smaller castes are with Mulayam Singh, Akhilesh Yadav & Mayawati. So who is forming your support base on the basis of which you feel you will perform well even without the alliance?"

Senior Congress leader Pramod Tiwari:

Let me give you a figure. Chhattisgarh has 96% Hindus. There are about 92-93% Hindus in Madhya Pradesh. Both states were deep rooted bastions for the BJP. There were only 4% Muslims in Chhattisgarh, and 6% in Madhya Pradesh, with 9% in Rajasthan. There was a huge attempt at polarisation with some very dirty tactics used. They made every effort. But a very large section of society had made up its mind that the BJP tells lies, hasn't followed through on its many promises, and needs to be removed. So they were removed.

Dorab R Sopariwala to Akhilesh Yadav:

"In our book we have written a chapter on divide and rule, that my enemy's enemy is my biggest enemy. So, you much rather let the BJP win than tie up with somebody else. This is a way in which divide and rule is what's happening? They say you hang separately."

Akhilesh Yadav: "The BJP's divide and rule is of a different sort. The Congress may have done it too, but in the last election I saw, the PM claimed that he came from a backward community. And he took the backward vote. He has divided society & religion. It could be a strategy, so yes, the BJP does have a strategy, where even if one gets 1,000 votes, it is possible that they can be given money and they can be made to fight. This is the strategy of many political parties. But when we lost the UP polls, we lost by a margin of 2 lakh votes somewhere and 2.5 lakh votes elsewhere. When we get to know what our weaknesses are, we can learn how to defeat our opponents."

Prannoy Roy: The Jatavs are so focused on Mayawati and little bit on SP and Yadavs in reverse, that they shouldn't be worried about Congress as allied. So why are they worried?

NDTV's Kamal Khan: Their worry is that at national level, the Muslim vote can shift. They feel Congress will make the government at the centre. The 19-20% vote can shift to them, is what they fear.

Prannoy Roy: Let's look at figures of the Muslim vote. It will be divided if Congress doesn't join the SP-BSP.

Division of Muslim votes more proof that split opposition in UP helps BJP



All our data shows Muslim vote, 80% goes to SP-BSP and 20% to the Congress. That's a big divide.

Shekhar Gupta: None to the BJP.

Prannoy Roy: Very, very few. Among the non-BJP, it's 80-20. There are a few independent candidates. But the divide is 80-20, which can make a big difference.

NDTV's Alok Pandey: Even in Barabanki, where you were. That's a seat where the Congress is known to be strong, because PL Punia has won an election there and he's known to be a strong candidate. His son is contesting this time around, so I'm sure he'll be campaigning. And then you'll likely have someone fighting from the SP. That's going to be an issue there as if they would've been together, they would've consolidated votes. And there is a significant Muslim population there. And if the votes are going to be 60-40, 80-20, there will be a problem.

NDTV's Kamal Khan to Uttar Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister Dinesh Sharma:

We have not heard the sort of language from you that a handful of your leaders keep using. I don't need to name them, you know who they are. It sends out the wrong message. It creates a sense of victimhood in the Muslim community, a sense of alienation. They feel they are being targetted. The Muslim population would be about 20% in UP and 14-15% in all of India. Isn't there a responsibility to practice inclusive politics, for the top leaders to stop such irresponsible speech from within the party? To act against them? Because you speak of progress for everyone. We have never heard you say inflammatory things.

Uttar Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister Dinesh Sharma: I do not know who you are referring to, but I can say this - the way Modiji has worked, the Muslims in Varanasi vote for him. In Lucknow, a sizeable population of Muslims vote for Rajnath Singh. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath himself has a lot of Muslims visiting his ashram every day and voting for him as well. What is said by whom, when, where & in what context, depends on an individual's personality. The scenario for us, in the country & the state, is that we believe in progress & support for everyone. It is an issue the PM believes in, there should be no discrimination, no differences. We are modernising madrasas as well. Instead of reducing funds for the upliftment of minority communities, we have increased it one and a half times. If we were a party that created differences, we would have never done that.

Prannoy Roy: But, not even one MP is Muslim, not one MLA in Gujarat is Muslim. At least to show inclusiveness, will there be any MPs from UP who will be Muslim?

Dinesh Sharma: Shahnawaz Hussain always wins, Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi fights. In Rajasthan, we have Yunus Khan. We had corporation elections recently in Gujarat.

Prannoy Roy: But that's very few. India has 15% Muslims. With you, less than 2%. Why is that?

Dinesh Sharma: I think that process is going stronger. There is conversation between educated Muslims. Look at Godhra, Surat. Lots of Muslims still support BJP. Because they know BJP will not discriminate. What I am trying to say is that BJP does not give tickets according to caste or religion. We are a political party. BSP-SP try to divide the voters. Those numbers are rising within the BJP. Top leadership among Muslims is with BJP. Christian and Muslim leaderships are now supporting the BJP.

"BJP's divide and rule is of a different sort": Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav to NDTV



"When we know our weaknesses, we can learn how to defeat our opponents": Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav

Related Videos

Akhilesh Yadav Seeks 12 Seats For Samajwadi Party In Maharashtra Polls
October 19, 2024 0:48
Akhilesh Yadav In Maharashtra To Negotiate Seat-Sharing Talks Among Coalition Partners
October 19, 2024 4:37
Akhilesh Yadav To Reach Maharashtra To Discuss Seat-Sharing With Maha Vikas Aghadi Allies
October 18, 2024 1:20
Akhilesh Yadav On Bahraich Durga Puja Clash
October 14, 2024 3:23
Battle For JP Legacy: Akhilesh Vs Yogi Iconic War?
October 11, 2024 18:15
Akhilesh Yadav vs BJP, And Appeal To Nitish Kumar In  Jayaprakash Narayan Statue Row
October 11, 2024 2:19
Akhilesh Yadav Vs BJP, And Appeal To Nitish Kumar In JP Narayan Statue Row
October 11, 2024 8:38
Akhilesh Yadav On Warpath Over Tin Sheets' Barricade At JP Narayan Museum
October 11, 2024 4:34
After Haryana Poll Shock, Congress Faces Samajwadi Party's Bypoll Snub
October 09, 2024 9:05
"Glorification, Grandstanding": Top Court Pauses 'Bulldozer Justice'
September 17, 2024 2:06
CM Yogi's Jab At Opposition: "Before 2017, Mafias Ran Parallel Government .."
September 08, 2024 7:40
Yogi Adityanath, Akhilesh Yadav Spar Over Bulldozer Action "Policy"
September 04, 2024 17:52
  • IPL 2025 Retention: Rishabh Pant, KL Rahul Enter Auction; Virat Kohli, MS Dhoni Retained For...
    October 31, 2024 4:37

    IPL 2025 Retention: Rishabh Pant, KL Rahul Enter Auction; Virat Kohli, MS Dhoni Retained For...

  • NDTV Ground Report From New York: Will US Get Its 1st-Ever Female President?
    October 31, 2024 4:02

    NDTV Ground Report From New York: Will US Get Its 1st-Ever Female President?

  • Big Jolt To Mumbai Congress: Senior Leader Ravi Raja Joins BJP Ahead Of Maharashtra Election
    October 31, 2024 2:32

    Big Jolt To Mumbai Congress: Senior Leader Ravi Raja Joins BJP Ahead Of Maharashtra Election

  • Chaos All Around After Fire Breaks Out At Cracker Shops In Jharkhand
    October 31, 2024 4:06

    Chaos All Around After Fire Breaks Out At Cracker Shops In Jharkhand

  • 1 Dead, 6 Injured In Diwali 'Onion Bomb' Tragedy In Andhra Pradesh
    October 31, 2024 3:07

    1 Dead, 6 Injured In Diwali 'Onion Bomb' Tragedy In Andhra Pradesh

  • PM Modi Celebrates Diwali With Soldiers In Gujarat's Kachchh
    October 31, 2024 7:13

    PM Modi Celebrates Diwali With Soldiers In Gujarat's Kachchh

  • Anupam Kher's Secret to Fitness at 69 | 'Vijay 69' Workout Session
    October 31, 2024 20:11

    Anupam Kher's Secret to Fitness at 69 | 'Vijay 69' Workout Session

  • Will Continue Peace Restoration Process: Rajnath Singh On India-China LAC Pact
    October 31, 2024 1:27

    Will Continue Peace Restoration Process: Rajnath Singh On India-China LAC Pact

  • What Matters Most For Indian-Americans In US Elections? An Expert Answers
    October 31, 2024 3:10

    What Matters Most For Indian-Americans In US Elections? An Expert Answers

  • No More Politics On Tirumala, Says New Temple Body Chief
    October 31, 2024 5:26

    No More Politics On Tirumala, Says New Temple Body Chief

  • Indian, Chinese Troops Exchange Diwali Sweets After Border Disengagement
    October 31, 2024 1:48

    Indian, Chinese Troops Exchange Diwali Sweets After Border Disengagement

  • PM Modi Continues Diwali Tradition, Celebrates With Soldiers In Kachchh
    October 31, 2024 1:27

    PM Modi Continues Diwali Tradition, Celebrates With Soldiers In Kachchh

  • "Will Try To Go Beyond Disengagement, But...": Rajnath Singh's LAC Update
    October 31, 2024 3:33

    "Will Try To Go Beyond Disengagement, But...": Rajnath Singh's LAC Update

  • Ajit Doval Speaks To US Counterpart, Discusses Indo-Pacific Stability
    October 31, 2024 1:51

    Ajit Doval Speaks To US Counterpart, Discusses Indo-Pacific Stability

  • Congress Veteran Ravi Raja Joins BJP Ahead Of Maharashtra Polls
    October 31, 2024 3:44

    Congress Veteran Ravi Raja Joins BJP Ahead Of Maharashtra Polls

  • Delhi's Air Quality Remains In 'Very Poor' Category On Diwali
    October 31, 2024 8:13

    Delhi's Air Quality Remains In 'Very Poor' Category On Diwali

  • When Will India Have Its ChatGPT Moment? Expert At NDTV World Summit Answers
    October 31, 2024 3:02

    When Will India Have Its ChatGPT Moment? Expert At NDTV World Summit Answers

  • This Indian Village Celebrates Darkness, Is Home To 'Dark Sky Reserve'
    October 31, 2024 2:30

    This Indian Village Celebrates Darkness, Is Home To 'Dark Sky Reserve'

  • Contagious Bird Disease Strikes At Rajasthan Sambhar Lake
    October 31, 2024 2:46

    Contagious Bird Disease Strikes At Rajasthan Sambhar Lake

  • Telangana Bans Mayonnaise Made From Raw Eggs Over Food Poisoning Concerns
    October 31, 2024 0:23

    Telangana Bans Mayonnaise Made From Raw Eggs Over Food Poisoning Concerns

  • Tension In Bengal Over Housing Scheme, State Orders List Verification
    October 31, 2024 3:12

    Tension In Bengal Over Housing Scheme, State Orders List Verification