pairing the Himachal and Gujarat outcomes offers an insight into the strength and limitations of the Modi factor. Less that the similarities first in both the states. PM campaigned heavily, doing four rallies in Himachal, a large number for that tiny state and a whopping 27 rallies in Gujarat in addition to at least two massive road shows, like the massive three hour long road show he held in Ahmedabad in the closing days of the campaign. In both states, the P M made highly personal appeals to voters asking them to vote for him above party or candidate lines like this famous quote from Himachal Kamal Kamala. Purple Boat Gonna summon leader gave our Cajun The party has Modi g of a full now. This big pitch by the prime minister was, of course, backed up by the carpet bombing of other top BJP leaders in both states, from Amit Shah to Yogi Yeah, Tatiana, as well as the full weight of the BJP's formidable election machine that ladders down to the grassroots to the level of the booths. BJP seems panna prom books in both states. The BJP was hoping that the Modi factor would help overcome the lightweight political leadership, which is another hallmark of mode. Aisha era so called accident chief ministers who are installed by the high command in Gujarat. Chief Minister Buh Pender Patel, who when he was appointed just a year before the elections in Himachal, the BJP opted for the lesser known Jayaram Thakur as chief minister over veteran Peak Duma Laughter Duma lost his seat in the last election. Both was seen as court and court. Accidental Chief ministers appointed centrally Mr Patel was simply a one time MLA in a builder by profession when he was made CM, the latest in a chain of revolving door CMEs installed by the BJP brass in Gujarat. Since the prime minister moved to New Delhi, Mr Thakur to was appointed largely because he is considered close to BJP President J. P. Nada. The Modi effect was also meant to counter and average to middling performance by both state governments in Gujarat. BJP was banking on the PM to fight off the lingering aftershocks of the mishandling of the core with second wave, which in part contributed to the removal of Vijay Rabbani as chief minister as well as battling emerging distress over joblessness, price rise and so on. Listen to these voices we recorded at her Arvind Kejriwal rally in Mess on a in north Gujarat in October. In the run up to the elections A septum. Baba Again. Thank you. I have you a Meanwhile, in Himachal, the BJP was hoping with the prime Minister's lift would help some battle a backlash to the removal of the old pension scheme, unrest amongst apple growers and anger against the new Agni path model of part time the armed Forces Recruitment. Listen to these voices from a campaign trail report from my colleague Saurabh Shukla earlier on Yes. Oh God! Oh Teens RC Amariyah Protection key Cost almost double over our media Gotta Sarkar Milani promises k They will be put in a carry hockey community Full moon Carla I'm sorry. A decorator be or Ashkhabad Esko Ski pension Garvaghy Routine H l A g to cooperate Autumn salmon Kelly Equal vote to happen. Pension Khalid In Netanya Real o'clock. A pension or karma and a pension. Sheeni Jarrahi Homemade Tamang here. Hey, G K Pradesh exam Vegan A quid han Tougher! Carmen! Char you Golly! Pension, kiddo. Pravda. Thank you. In both the states. The BJP was also hoping that the prime minister factor would counter the rebel impact. After the BJP, with trademark ruthlessness, dropped a large chunk of Sitting MME lass in Gujarat, the BJP had to suspend around 1919 rebels in Himachal to the party had to contender with a significant rebellion after it suspended seven rebels, one of whom was filmed receiving a call from the prime minister himself asking the rebel to stand down. Modi G. Man and and Bahadur Ola mid com nearly merrily Wanda Wanda. But in the end, as we know, despite these similarities, the outcomes played out differently. The BJP losing Himachal Pradesh but winning good wrath by a landslide in Himachal, a small number of rebels ended up winning. Several more appear to have dented the party's performance, while in Gujarat a rebellion had no significant impact. Neither did all the other factors of a lightweight chief minister, voices of economic distress and so on. So why did the Modi factor work in Gujarat and not Himachal Pradesh? To be clear for all the commonalities, there is a difference that gives the BJP a distinct advantage in Gujarat, which tells us something about what works and what doesn't. Starting with obvious the emotive connect that voters in Gujarat have with the prime minister from their home state, a connect the prime minister has done much to foster over his three year, three term tenure a c m a connect that might be absent in other states like Himachal two. And this goes beyond the PM factor. Gujarat social and political history has made it a more fertile soil for communally charged political messaging of the kind that benefits the BJP messaging. That is unlikely to get much traction in Himachal with a near and significant 2% Muslim population, a state that has been largely averse or indifferent to sectarian politics. Number three in Gujarat, the main opposition party, the Congress, has been in a state of continuous decline bordering on collapse for close to three decades, culminating in the Congress walk over in the selection what the Congress now calls a silent campaign. Unlike in Himachal, whether Congress was in power as recently as five years ago and appears to have put up a semblance of a better campaign and finally in Gujarat, the BJP seems to have benefited from a divided opposition courtesy, the Aam Aadmi party. While the op made a play in both states, they seem to withdraw from the Himachal campaign, expending more energy in Gujarat, so there was no vote division there. So what is all this? Tell us about the strength and limitations of the Modi factor that when the prime minister is able to make an emotive connected, is helped by week or divided opposition. Bolstered by an electorate receptive to Hindu for signalling, the Modi effect can take the BJP over the line despite a middling performance by the state government as with Gujarat. But in the absence of some or all of those factors, the prime minister factor may not always be successful as with Himachal.
