Opinion | Trump's Durbar: Back To 'Pax Americana' In The Gulf?

As the dust settles on the pageantry and financial outbidding that accompanied US President Donald Trump's four-day Gulf tour that ended last Friday, several aspects stand out in bold relief. Some of them are flashy and transactional, but several others are germane and are likely to have long-term, even historic, significance. Either way, this first major foreign visit in Trump 2.0 to an area of vital interest to India requires careful analysis for its likely impact on our geopolitical interests.

Big Money

For its sheer optics, Trump's Gulf tour was quite over the top, with his three hydrocarbon-rich hosts going overboard in offering him mega-deals. Saudi Arabia ordered $142 billion worth of American weapons and promised to invest up to $600 billion in the US economy. Qatar, the next stop, offered deals worth $1.2 trillion, including orders for 210 Boeing airliners still on the drawing board. Apart from a $400 million gift of a new 'Air Force 1', Doha also promised to spend $10 billion on America's al-Udaid air base in Qatar. Abu Dhabi was the last stop, and the United Arab Emirates had already committed $1.2 trillion in bilateral synergy during the next ten years.

In the event, $200 billion worth of deals, mostly in aircraft, upstream hydrocarbon projects and advanced Artificial Intelligence chips, were signed. Trump's claim to have transacted business worth two trillion dollars during the tour may qualify as a "truthful hyperbole" (a quote from his book The Art of the Deal), and a Reuters tally whittled the sum down to $700 billion. It is, nevertheless, still a substantial harvest for a four-day tour. Apart from sheer numbers, of special significance was the alacrity with which the White House blessed the sale of state-of-the-art weapons to the Kingdom and the UAE. Until recently, the United States administration was quite reluctant to do so as it would erode Israel's qualitative edge in defence against its Arab adversaries. Similarly, Trump broke new ground by making available the most advanced AI chips to the two countries, dismissing the longstanding compunctions about the cutting-edge technology being passed down to China.

Why The Arab World Diversified Its Options

The geopolitical gains of the visit were, however, more of a mixed bag. Its biggest achievement was the re-establishment of the Pax Americana over the Arabian Peninsula. Historically, the bilateral oil/investments-for-security compact has been in place for eight decades following the meeting between US President Roosevelt and Saudi King Abdulaziz aboard USS Quincy in 1945. In the last two decades, this arrangement had been demoted for several reasons. Firstly, the Shale upstream technology enabled the US to shrug off its dependence on Gulf oil and gas. Secondly, Arab regimes got tired of moralising by Washington, which was seen as equivocal about supporting them against the tide of the "Arab Spring" phenomenon. Further, the US was deemed an unreliable security guarantor after Washington's inaction in the wake of the Abqaiq attack in 2019 on Saudi oil installations and Houthi missile attacks on Abu Dhabi in 2021. 

The American denial of offensive weapon systems to these countries was also a case in point. The Gulf Arabs responded to the perceived US unreliability by trying to diversify their geo-strategic options towards China, Russia and India. Beijing became the largest trading partner for almost all the GCC states. President Xi paid a historic visit to Riyadh in December 2022 and held triple Summits. In June 2023, China's mediation led to Iran and Saudi Arabia re-establishing diplomatic ties after nearly a decade of rupture. China's offerings under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and BRICS rubrics found some Gulf takers. The OPEC+ was formed largely to bring Russia into OPEC's fold. Despite enormous Western pressure, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states did not take sides in the Ukraine conflict, refusing to condemn Russia or sanction it. Washington was seen to be complicit in Israel's brutal war on Gaza, further deepening the suspicions in the Muslim world, in general, and the GCC, in particular. However, Trump's high-profile visit swept these reservations aside and resuscitated the traditional oil/investment-for-security compact with various caveats in place. A side success was the dramatic lifting of the US sanctions on the new Syrian regime led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, former militia leader, until recently with a $10 million US bounty on his head.

Heeding Trump's call for lower oil prices, Saudis worked energetically within OPEC+ to significantly boost the supply side by unlocking the production curbs. This led to a nearly 20% fall in global oil prices in 2025, even though it also resulted in a precipitous decline in Saudi oil revenue.

What Couldn't Be

Nevertheless, Trump's tour was not an unblemished success story. Riyadh denied Trump the coveted achievement of joining the Abraham Accords by resolutely refusing to recognise Israel until the resolution of the Palestinian statehood conundrum. Israel, on its part, did nothing to help the atmospherics of Trump's visit by launching new attacks on Gaza and Yemen. From the Saudi perspective, the expected public signing of strategic agreements on civilian nuclear cooperation and a bilateral defence treaty failed to materialise. Similarly, Trump's positive remarks about Turkey and Iran would have hardly been reassuring to the GCC leaders. While there has been a great deal of speculation about whether Israel's exclusion from Trump's itinerary meant a cooling of the bilateral ardour, most observers do not detect any strategic chasm, pointing out that Prime Minister Netanyahu is the only leader to have been twice to the Trump 2.0 White House. Last, but not the least, the Trump tour's outcome is likely to await the conclusion of the ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks.

Why The Extravaganza?

The question that needs asking is what did the three Gulf hosts get from lavishing on President Trump? The over-the-top style and substance on display by them had several reasons. Firstly, they trusted the Trump Presidency to restore stability and security to the region after two years of tumultuous disruption. Secondly, the GCC countries' quest for alternate security pivots concluded that Russia and China were no substitutes for the United States as an overarching security guarantor. Thirdly, their exhilaration in welcoming Trump was a sign of relief on the Biden-Trump switch as they found the former insufferable for his moralising aloofness and insensitive to their security concerns. Fourthly, they shared and appreciated Trump's directness and transactional attitude. Fifthly, as a real-estate developer turned politician, it was possible to monetise most issues with the Trump Presidency. Sixthly, while the US had gained energy independence from the Gulf oil supplies, it still needed massive investments from the GCC countries to arrest the economic decline worsened by the tariff wars - providing ample reverse leverage. Lastly, Trump had personal vulnerabilities, such as megalomania, preference for quick fixes, "royal envy", love of flattery and affluence, rendering him malleable to the usual Arab court mannerisms. Never mind, much of the promised mega-wealth transfer may not take place. In reverse, Trump found GCC leaders to be straightforward - an antithesis of the high-brow leaders of the Western democracies that he deprecated.

Takeaways For India

What are the takeaways for India from this Trump-flexing in the neighbouring Gulf, where we have several well-known vital interests, ranging from a large diaspora to remittances, oil and gas dependence, $160 billion in annual trade and large investments? Firstly, if Trump's Gulf focus makes the Gulf more stable and secure, it is in our general interest, with projects such as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor finally taking off. Secondly, if the lion's share of the Gulf's investible corpus gets syphoned to America, less is left for us to partake. At the same time, our economy may benefit collaterally through subcontracts, supply chains, provisions for services and manpower. In case an Iran nuclear deal comes through, the entire Gulf and West Asia would become an American preserve, adding to Washington's heft on us. Thirdly, the huge induction of state-of-the-art American weapon systems to this region may have security implications for India. Lastly, the lofty ambitions of the GCC monarchies for a US-led, post-oil, high-tech future may create opportunities for us.

The Penchant For 'Tamasha'

Historically, Indian society, too, has a penchant for a 'Tamasha' (drama). British colonialists tapped into this proclivity by holding Durbars to drive home the empire being omnipotent over India.

The Delhi Durbar of 1911, with King George V and Queen Mary seated upon the dais.

The last such "Delhi Durbar" was held in 1911 to mark the visit of King George V. It was a grand spectacle with over 500 Indian royalties paying obeisance to the visiting Sovereign. It was, however, followed four years later by Mahatma Gandhi's almost uneventful return to India. Today, with the benefit of hindsight, we know which of the two was a defining historic event. By the same token, Trump's recent Gulf Durbar, however glitzy it may appear now, would need to await posterity's judgement to find its rightful place in history.

(Mahesh Sachdev is a retired Indian Ambassador. He currently heads Eco-Diplomacy and Strategies, a Delhi-based consultancy.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author