The Dragon-Scorpion Embrace, And Why India Can't Afford To Ignore It

The geopolitical chessboard of South Asia has long been characterised by intricate manoeuvres and enduring rivalries. Yet, in recent times, few phenomena have commanded as much strategic scrutiny and warranted as much circumspection from New Delhi as the deepening, increasingly brazen nexus between China and Pakistan. 

This is not merely a transactional alliance, a convenient marriage of interests born of shared antipathy towards India. Rather, what we observe is a sophisticated, multi-faceted embrace that has profound implications for India's security, economic aspirations, and regional standing. 

For too long, perhaps, some in India have viewed this relationship through a rather narrow lens, often focusing on Pakistan's historical reliance on China for military hardware or Beijing's diplomatic shields at the United Nations. While these aspects remain salient, they merely scratch the surface of a far more intricate and expansive collaboration. 

A Deep Relationship

This is a partnership that transcends the purely military aspect, weaving itself into the very fabric of Pakistan's economic future through the much-touted China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project (and the single largest in dollar terms) of Beijing's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). CPEC, for all its purported developmental benefits for Pakistan, is a clear manifestation of China's grand strategy: to establish a firm foothold in the Indian Ocean region and to extend its influence deep into South Asia. 

The corridor, snaking through the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir territory that is undeniably an integral part of India, is not merely an economic artery; it is a strategic bypass, designed to provide China with critical access to the Arabian Sea via Gwadar Port. In the old days, goods destined for Western China had to come from the Suez Canal or the Straits of Hormuz past India, through the Malacca Straits, into the South China Sea; unload in Guangzhou or Shenzhen; then travel by road the long way across mainland China to the Western provinces. Gwadar saves 90% of the time and 95% of the costs of doing this.

This strategic access gives China a considerable stake in Pakistan, in its own interest. Coupled with China's expanding naval presence, it presents a palpable challenge to India's maritime security and its preeminence in the Indian Ocean. 

Why Both Need Each Other

Beyond the visible infrastructure, the China-Pakistan axis is a symbiotic relationship of geopolitical design. For Pakistan, China is the indispensable patron, offering economic lifelines and diplomatic cover, particularly on issues of cross-border terrorism that India has strenuously sought to highlight on global platforms. 

Beijing's consistent obstruction of UN resolutions aimed at sanctioning Pakistan-based terror operatives is a stark reminder of this unwavering support, effectively insulating Pakistan from international accountability. 

For China, Pakistan serves as a crucial geostrategic pawn, a reliable counterweight to India's growing economic and diplomatic heft. By bolstering Pakistan, Beijing ensures that New Delhi remains perpetually engaged on its western flank, diverting its strategic energies and resources from its broader regional and global ambitions. 

India Can't Shut Its Eyes

This "two-front" conundrum is not a hypothetical scenario for India; it is a live challenge that necessitates constant vigilance and strategic preparedness. The recent flare-ups along our western borders during Operation Sindoor, often featuring sophisticated Chinese-made military hardware in Pakistani hands, underscore this reality with stark clarity. 

Moreover, we are witnessing a concerted effort by China to cultivate a "trilateral nexus" involving Pakistan and other neighbours, such as Bangladesh and Afghanistan. While framed as initiatives for regional stability and economic cooperation, these engagements are, at their core, calibrated attempts to dilute India's influence and to construct a China-centric regional order. 

Whatever we are seeing is a subtle but potent form of diplomatic encirclement, seeking to redefine the regional power dynamics in Beijing's favour. 

So, how must India navigate this complex and evolving landscape? 

Deterrence And Diplomacy

The answer, I submit, lies in a multi-pronged approach that combines robust deterrence with astute diplomacy and strategic economic initiatives. 

Firstly, our military preparedness must remain paramount. While we advocate for peace and stability, the realities of our neighbourhood demand a credible and decisive defence posture, capable of deterring any adventurism from either border. Investment in cutting-edge defence technology, indigenous manufacturing, and continuous modernisation of our armed forces are not luxuries but necessities. 

Secondly, India must continue to leverage its soft power and deepen its engagement with other regional partners who may also harbour reservations about China's burgeoning influence. Strengthening ties with countries in the subcontinent, across Southeast Asia, the Quad nations, and like-minded powers globally can help create a broader framework of checks and balances against hegemonic ambitions. Our diplomatic outreach must be relentless, articulating our legitimate concerns while championing a rules-based international order. 

Growth Is The Best Bulwark

Finally, and perhaps most crucially, we must accelerate our own economic growth and enhance our connectivity projects. Projects like the International North-South Transport Corridor and the Chabahar Port, while not directly countering CPEC, offer alternative pathways that reduce our reliance on Chinese-dominated infrastructure and enhance our strategic reach. Let's face it: we don't have the resources that China has. But we don't need that much to offer credible resistance to Chinese designs.

A strong, self-reliant India, economically vibrant and strategically confident, is the most effective bulwark against any attempts to circumscribe its rise. 

The China-Pakistan nexus is not a passing phenomenon but a deeply entrenched geopolitical reality. It demands from India not just reactive measures but a comprehensive, far-sighted strategy. 

The challenge is formidable, but India, with its innate resilience and growing global stature, is more than capable of charting a course that safeguards its interests and ensures its rightful place on the world stage. To do otherwise would be to misread the script of our times and to concede the future to forces in Beijing that do not wish us well.

(Shashi Tharoor has been a Member of Parliament from Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, since 2009. He is a published author and a former diplomat.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author