Opinion | US-Israel Are Standing Alone. Their Friends Want To 'Recognise' Palestine

Australia has now joined a growing bloc of Western nations, including the UK, France, Spain, Ireland and Canada, that have declared their intention to recognise the State of Palestine. On paper, this is only a diplomatic gesture. It redraws no borders, changes no military realities and compels Israel to do nothing. But politically, it is a crack in what was once a granite-solid Western consensus that Israel alone could dictate the terms of Palestinian statehood. For Palestinians, it is at least a symbolic vindication of their national aspirations - arriving decades late and with no mechanism to enforce it.

But one may legitimately ask, why now? Gaza's humanitarian catastrophe has become impossible to look away from. Western publics are now seeing them live and unfiltered on their smartphones. There have been pro-Gazan protest marches nearly every day in various Western capitals. People are not afraid to go to jail. Over the weekend, British police arrested over 500 pro-Palestinian protesters, some in their 70s and 80s, and most of them White. 

US Still Unmoved

Politicians in Europe are reading the outrage in their inboxes and on their streets. The United States, however, stands unmoved - wielding its UN veto to shield Israel and ensuring no resolution passes without Jerusalem's blessing. In Washington's calculations, strategic alliance still outweighs moral awakening; in its domestic politics, bipartisan support for Israel remains one of the few constants in a fractured political landscape.

Also Read | What Does France's Recognition Of Palestine Mean For Middle East's Future

The Israeli Knesset's green light for the full seizure of Gaza City is both a battlefield milestone and a diplomatic turning point. Most of the West - barring Washington - is uneasy, if not openly opposed, fearing this accelerates a slide towards outright occupation and collective punishment. At the UN Security Council over the weekend, the verdict was overwhelming: near-universal condemnation of Israel's plan, broken only by the US and Panama. The optics are stark. America is no longer leading a coalition on Israel; it is standing almost alone. And the world, it seems, has decided that its silence has run out of excuses.

The backlash was immediate. The United States, under the Trump administration, warned Canada that its decision could jeopardise future trade negotiations, with the threat of higher tariffs looming. Israel responded with characteristic fury, calling the move "a reward for Hamas and its terrorism" and accusing Western governments of moral betrayal. Even a couple of hostages recently released by Hamas publicly criticised the UK's decision, saying it would embolden extremism and undermine the efforts to bring other captives home. The backlash reveals just how volatile and contested the path to recognition remains - a fault line not just between allies and adversaries but between the present moment and a long history of inaction.

Too Little Too Late

But this Western gesture appears to be too late for those in Gaza who are no more. No diplomatic announcement can feed the emaciated, comfort the orphaned or rewind the clock to justify the limbs torn by airstrikes, children buried under rubble, or the dry-eyed silence of survivors who have forgotten how to cry. But late though it is, key Western nations now claim to have seen the light. France, the UK, Australia and Canada, once guardians of a status quo built on Palestinian disposability, have declared their intent to recognise the state of Palestine. One cannot help but ask: where were these sentiments when over tens of thousands of Palestinians were being systematically killed, starved and displaced over the past couple of years?

Recognition is not a humanitarian gesture. I seem to think it is a political act. And in this moment, it reeks of self-preservation more than solidarity.

Also Read | "No Alternative" To Two-State Solution For Israel, Palestinians: France

It took images of starving children, of young men shot while lining up for flour, of aid trucks looted not by militants but by hollow-eyed fathers and exhausted mothers, for the West's conscience to stir. Until then, silence had been their policy, and complicity their creed.

As of last week, the death toll from starvation alone stands at 154 and counting, with the vast majority of deaths being in recent weeks. These are not casualties of war in the conventional sense. These are victims of deliberate siege, of institutional cruelty and of political convenience. Hunger has been weaponised in Gaza, used not as a byproduct of the conflict but as a method of control. More than 1,200 Palestinians - many of them children and already malnourished - have been shot dead while collecting food. The Israeli military claims Hamas looted food packets and is responsible for the starvation of civilians. Nearly all countries, however, agree that the killings must stop and essential goods must be sent to Gaza in quantities that meet the population's needs.

Aid Worth 'A Drop In The Ocean'

Meanwhile, the Israeli agency COGAT proudly proclaimed that hundreds of aid trucks had entered Gaza, along with fuel tankers and sorties of aid airdropped with assistance from Egypt, Jordan and the UAE. It is a paltry offering. Aid agencies estimate that at least 500-600 trucks are needed daily to prevent famine. The United Nations has likened the current trickle to "a drop in the ocean". 

And yet, amid this collapse of humanity, Western diplomats have found their voices, still more like the voices of petitioners than of prosecutors, but voices of dissent nevertheless. Britain's Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, recently declared: "The global community is deeply offended by children being shot and killed as they reach out for aid." But this observation, however sincere, comes after months of calculated avoidance. 

There is a quiet admission in Western capitals that recognition now has come not from courage but from discomfort. To date, more than 140 countries - nearly three-quarters of the United Nations - have recognised the state of Palestine. Most of these recognitions came decades ago, particularly from the Global South, and stood as acts of moral resistance against Western-backed Israeli policy. But until now, the core Western powers remained unmoved. Now, suddenly, they say they will recognise Palestine by September. That, in itself, signals a tectonic shift. Though not yet an earthquake.

Germany, still haunted by its historical guilt, has not yet joined the new recognisers. Its position remains ambiguous, cautious. Berlin says it supports a two-state solution but insists on "appropriate conditions" and "direct negotiations" between Israel and the Palestinians. In other words: not yet. Not until the wounds are deeper, perhaps. Or not until Washington signals it's safe to follow.

And Washington has made its position clear.

Under the Trump administration, the United States stands firmly opposed to any recognition of Palestinian statehood. Trump has gone further than mere diplomatic objection - he has threatened direct economic consequences. Canada, he warned, would risk a breakdown in trade talks and suffer retaliatory tariffs if it proceeded with recognition. The message was unmistakable: align with Washington or prepare to pay. So much for sovereignty.

The Long Forgotten 'Tokyo Guidelines'

But one must remember that the US had not always been so directionless in this regard. In November 2023, at a G7 summit in Tokyo, then-Secretary of State Antony Blinken had outlined what was intended to be a postwar roadmap for Gaza. Fresh from Tel Aviv, and just a month after the October 7 Hamas attacks, Blinken presented five core principles that came to be known as the "Tokyo Guidelines".

They included: no forced displacement of Palestinians; no Israeli re-occupation of Gaza; no renewed blockade of the Strip; a post-war government led by Palestinians, preferably through the internationally recognised Palestinian Authority; and no role whatsoever for Hamas. These were not revolutionary demands. They were minimum expectations for a just outcome. But they were shelved almost as soon as they were spoken.

The Trump administration, which assumed power over a year and a half ago, discarded them outright. The Tokyo Guidelines faded into obscurity - forgotten by Washington, ignored by Israel and remembered only by those desperately searching for a plan. Yet, many of America's European allies still quietly cling to those guidelines. The recent French-Saudi-led conference at the UN in New York was, in many ways, a revival attempt of the Tokyo vision.

But the White House boycotted that gathering, calling it a "publicity stunt". "The US will not participate in this insult," said a State Department spokesperson. The insult, it seems, was the idea of peace without Israel's permission.

Inside Gaza, no such declarations are heard. Internet access is patchy. Communication is frail. But a few voices still rise from the ashes. "Another slap to Israel - this time from Canada," wrote Gaza-based journalist Imad Abu Shawish. "Every recognition brings us a step closer to our dream of an independent state." Yet, even he must wonder whether these recognitions will translate into real change on the ground. For the mother boiling weeds to feed her children, or the boy who flinches at every sound from the sky, symbolic recognitions do not rebuild homes or resurrect the dead.

Break From Policy

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said his country's recognition will be delayed only if Israel takes concrete steps towards a ceasefire and a sustainable peace. But Tel Aviv has already dismissed that condition. However, that has not shaken the British resolve. According to a report in the BBC, which quotes a senior British official, the move is now "irreversible". It is, at the very least, a break from decades of British policy.

No one in London, Paris, Canberra or Ottawa pretends that this will result in an independent Palestinian state anytime soon. The hope, as stated by British diplomats, is to empower moderates on both sides. It is a moral jolt more than a diplomatic manoeuvre. A late one, but necessary all the same.
Meanwhile, Israel, with US backing, continues to pursue a strategy that offers no political solution - only military dominance. Gaza, once a place of neighbourhoods and schools and beach cafés, is now a graveyard. There is no talk of reconstruction, only of control. And Trump, when pressed for his vision of the future, simply pointed to Netanyahu. You see, the American president no longer leads.

Nothing Moves Without US

European nations are trying to step into the vacuum. But even they admit: without American backing and without Israeli cooperation, they are fumbling in the dark. Their September deadline may bring stronger language, more recognitions, louder condemnations. But without enforcement mechanisms, without material pressure, these recognitions remain on paper. 

Still, something has shifted. The world's superpower may have abdicated its role, but others are stirring. The taboo of Palestinian statehood among Western elites has been broken. For the first time in years, the word "Palestine" is being uttered alongside words like "legitimacy" and "recognition", not just "terror" and "hostage". That matters. Not enough, but it matters.

What matters more, though, is how the world will act when the famine worsens, when Israel seizes Gaza City, when the September deadline for recognition arrives and when Israeli rejection continues. Recognition must not be the end of the conversation. It must be the beginning of something far more uncomfortable, far more urgent. 

It is not too late to save the living. But it is far too late to pretend you simply didn't know.

(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author