Opinion | Air India Crash: Exactly Whom Are The Two 'Leaks' And The Probe Report Helping?

This morning's allegations by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) about the purported events that occurred in the AI-171 just before it tragically crashed on June 12 have left us all alarmed and fuming. Alarmed at the allegations that, until now, were mere insinuations, and fuming because such blatant 'leaks' are taking place in a country ten thousand miles away even as the official investigation is being conducted by the government of India's Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB).

It strikes one as astounding that a confidential report of the government of India's aviation accident probe body is being leaked in the United States by American media, and that the very AAIB preliminary report presented to the Centre had no mention of these allegations. 

Either way, we as citizens, aviators and passengers need closure. On the day of the tragedy, I had expressed the need for a judicial enquiry led by a High Court judge. I reiterate this now that we have seen this preliminary report. In the interest of all passengers, pilots and aviation organisations in India, the Centre must ensure such an enquiry - which should include 787-licensed pilots or experts - is held parallel to the AAIB report, or, in the alternative, a Public Interest Litigation (PIL) must be filed for it. 

A Report That Only Confuses

The preliminary report for the crash was released by AAIB a month after the crash, on July 12. The 15-page document is a bundle of insinuations and speculation, and seems to prioritise the needs of big US corporations rather than address all the aspects of the truth. It leaves many more questions than answers for the world. The question is, why?

India is today the third-largest aviation market in the world and the fourth-largest economy. Its vision is to have more than 250 airports and 2,000 new aircraft in the next few years, thanks to the government's policies. Surely, expecting professionals to efficiently handle one of the most significant and closely watched aviation accident investigations in the history of aviation is not an extraordinary demand. 

There are multiple objections over the preliminary report, the first of which has to be the composition of the committee. There was no pilot on the committee, let alone a 787-licensed pilot or engineer. The second issue is confidentiality. How is it that the premier state-led agency had the contents of its report leaked at least four days earlier in a foreign nation?

The First 'Leak'

On July 9, aviation Journalist Jon Ostrower and The Air Current published an article that said investigators were looking at the "fuel control switches" that were indirectly, or intentionally, pulled by the pilots. Ostrower set out the circumstances in detail, as per his sources close to the investigation. Within two days, the WSJ also led with a similar story about the fuel control switches and even pointed out that there had been a difference of opinion between India's AAIB and the US-based National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), which had threatened to walk out of the investigation. Eventually, the AAIB released the report in the wee hours of the morning on July 12, perplexing an expectant nation. 

The biggest gap in the report is that the AAIB did not publish the CVR (cockpit voice recorder) transcripts of the 34-second flight. In fact, the report did not even publish the timestamps for critical issues, such as when the pilots allegedly spoke to each other, the RAT (Ram Air Turbine) deployment, etc, and simply paraphrased these details.

The latest WSJ report (July 17) reveals some more information, stating that it was the "commander who pulled the switches" and whilst the "First Officer panicked", the "commander reacted calmly". All this paints a rather sinister picture of what allegedly happened in the cockpit. The WSJ goes on to say that the NTSB chief, Jennifer Homendy, had asked to listen to the entire recording herself. Some "US officials believe", the report goes on to claim, "that criminal authorities (like the FBI) should examine the matter, as would have been the case if this had happened on US soil".

What We're Missing

The media, whether American or Indian, is bound to scoop out details. The question is, who is going to take the rap in the government for these colossal leaks and failures?

On the day the report had been released, I had indicated both on X and in the media that it appeared as though the investigating authorities, the AAIB and the NTSB, knew more than what they were disclosing. The omission of the CVR transcripts was a critical failure of the preliminary report. There are also many other technical, mechanical and electronic possibilities that exist, which the AAIB and the NTSB might be trying to deflect attention from. They are referred to in the US' Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) notices of 2018 and 2022, the UK's Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) notices of 2015 and 2025, the 'foreign object damage' (FOD) risk of "uncommanded activation of the engine fuel shut off" as mentioned by Boeing and FAA in their May 2022 notice, and the confidential Boeing-GE 787 test lab notes on possible 'Thrust Control Malfunction Accommodation' (TCMA) malfunction in the electronic engine control, which could cause automatic shutdown of the engines, as had happened with an ANA aircraft in 2019.

Against the convenience of pinning the blame on the pilots, most of these possibilities remain unexplored. Unless of course the CVR and DFDR (Digital Flight Data Recorder) evidence is brutally conclusive of intentional pilot action, the question that should be asked is, why is information not being disclosed in a transparent manner? We already know that the AAIB had downloaded 49 hours of DFDR data of six flights and two hours of CVR conversations, which included those of the tragic flight.

Boeing Is The Real Winner

Ironically, the only beneficiary in all this is Boeing. According to a blog on The Aviation Brief, "...from a post-crash low of $203.75 on June 12, Boeing Stock rose to approximately $230.51 on July 14, a gain of over 13% in just one month". The company's shares climbed towards 52-week highs after the preliminary investigation report gave the company a clean chit, and rose further after the WSJ allegations.

A Host Of Possible Warnings

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner is a highly electronic aircraft with multiple redundancies and warnings, all of which would be recorded on the CVR and the DFDR. The visual and aural warnings for milestone events and failures would have lit up the cockpit and both pilots' screens unmistakably. Sadly, no commentator has touched on this aspect thus far. In the event of what has been described in the preliminary report, there would be separate aural and visual warnings, such as 'RAT Deployed', 'Engine Fail', 'Engine (Left) or Engine (Right) fail', 'Fuel Shut off', 'Thrust loss engine (L/ and or R)', 'Master Caution' warning horn and light, 'Config gear' warning or 'Config flaps' warning, 'Fuel Pressure low', 'Terrain', 'Don't Sink' or 'Pull up' (per Enhanced Ground Proximity Warning System). Most of these warnings would have continuous chimes or high-low chimes, with visual indications. Amidst all this, the pilots would have had to converse with each other, as described in the report, and also try to attend to each one of these emergencies that resulted in a dual engine failure, while also trying to restart them. This would have been documented second-by-second with visible audio recordings, and it should have been part of the CVR transcript.

The question of whether the pilots did or did not pull the switches deliberately, and, if they did, whether it was with intent to save the aircraft or to jeopardise it (as per the flight's Quick Reference Handbook, or QRH), we will never know. What we do know is that the focus on flight safety, pilot fatigue and mental health in Indian aviation will come into the spotlight, and rightly so. 

Years Of Neglect, Disregard

It's crucial that the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) and the aviation ministry immediately take responsibility for years of neglect of the Pilots Flight Duty Time Limitations rules (FDTL) issue, which allowed commercial interests to rule over safety, and delay its implementation. Which is why we now need a judicial enquiry, which has the power to summon witnesses, subpoena documents and witnesses.

In conclusion, the speculation, allegations and mythmaking around the AI-171 crash have the potential to muddy the truth irreversibly. For the sake of the 270 souls that we lost in that terrible tragedy, the authorities ought to do much, much better. 

(Sanjay Lazar is an analyst, lawyer and author who writes on international relations, aviation and law. He has spent 40 years in aviation. He can be reached on X @sjlazars)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author