Why a weak monsoon does not worry the government
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India's crucial monsoons should improve next week, agriculture minister Sharad Pawar said on Tuesday, amid growing concern over a halt in the progress of the June to September rains that has hit sowing of some crops in the major food producer and consumer.
"By and large, the situation may not be fully satisfactory but it is not bad either... There is ample opportunity to cover the delay," Pawar said.
The rain, which provide the main source of water for 55 per cent of India's arable land, was 31 per cent below average from June 1 to July 2, losing even more pace in the last week after being 23 per cent below average to June 27.
The monsoon has stalled over central India, leaving the states of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab without their normal rainfall. In Delhi, temperatures have soared to 45 degrees on some days, making it the hottest June for over 30 years.
India's 1.2 billion people make it one of the world's biggest consumers of rice, sugar and grains but it is usually self-sufficient in these foodstuffs, although a major importer of pulses and edible oils.
The agriculture sector accounts for about 15 per cent of a nearly $2 trillion economy, Asia's third-biggest, and good harvests keep up rural incomes and in turn demand for gold and consumer goods.
Corn acreage could switch to pulses, oilseeds
For Punjab and Haryana, where about 93 per cent of arable land is irrigated, the lack of water should not have a big impact on rice, cane and cotton planting.
In Gujarat and Rajasthan, Pawar suggested that the usual coarse cereal crops might be replaced with pulses and oilseeds—which would be a bonus for the government as India is a major importer of both while sitting on a surplus of corn.
Rajasthan has been so hot that camel owners have been moving their animals to neighbouring states such as Madhya Pradesh to find food and water.
"It's true that in certain states where sowing begins early there's some impact," Pawar said, adding that the affected states include Maharashtra, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
"The overall situation of rice planting is not worrisome. Corn planting has been affected," he added.
The early stages of the monsoon help to soften the soil for planting of crops while July and August rains are the most important for maturing seedlings and enhancing yield.
The weather office is still forecasting an average year for the monsoon despite the current delay.
Pawar said if necessary, India was ready to tap its burgeoning stocks of grain, which are overflowing from warehouses and added states have contingency plans to hand out more seeds if replanting is necessary.
"The government can offer from its stocks if situation demands. (There is) no dearth of grains," he said.
Copyright: Thomson Reuters 2012
