New Delhi: There are 92 per cent chances of India receiving a "normal" and above rainfall this season with good amount of rain expected in central India and along the West coast while some pockets of Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh could experience less precipitation.
Tamil Nadu, Northeast India and South Interior Karnataka will be at a "moderate risk" in terms of rainfall through June, July, August and September (JJAS).
"Good amount of rainfall is expected in Central India and along the West coast. There may be excess rainfall in some pockets of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. Some pockets of Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh could experience less rainfall. Second half of the Monsoon will see better rainfall than the first half."
"Post-Monsoon, the spell of good rainfall activities will spill over," Skymet said in its second forecast for the monsoon season.
There are 50 per cent chances of India receiving "normal" rainfall in June while the figure will jump to 60 per cent in July and August. In September, there are 40 per cent chances of India receiving "normal" rainfall and 50 per cent chances of "above normal" rainfall.
"There are 25 per cent chances of excess rainfall, 37 per cent chances of above normal rainfall and 30 per cent chances of normal rainfall for the entire season (JJAS)," Skymet said.
"The El Nino is tapering down and it will collapse after the onset of Monsoon. It is not likely to have an adverse impact on the Monsoon performance."
"There are more chances of getting into La-Nino in the later part of this year. Under the influence of the cyclone Roanu, Monsoon arrived before time over the Andaman and has also advanced further. Conditions are now favourable for its timely onset over Kerala," Skymet CEO Jatin Singh said.
Interestingly, Skymet has predicted that monsoon will hit Kerala between May 28 and 30 while the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the onset date of monsoon will be around June 7.
The normal onset date for monsoon is June 1.