Poll of Exit Poll Results 2019: Experts Explain Why Markets Closed At Record Highs

Exit polls predicting a comfortable win for the ruling BJP-led National Democratic Alliance in the just-concluded national election sent markets rallying on Monday with benchmark indices closing at record highs. The BJP-led NDA is predicted to win 302 of 543 seats, and the Congress and its allies 122 in the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, according to an aggregate of exit polls by national and regional channels on Sunday. Final results are due on Thursday.

The S&P BSE Sensex surged 3.75 per cent or 1,422 points to close at 39,353 with State Bank of India, YES Bank, IndusInd Bank and Larsen & Toubro leading the gains. The NSE Nifty closed at an all-time high of 11,828. The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies jumped by Rs 5.33 lakh crore to Rs 1,51,86,312.05 crore on Monday.

Government bond prices surged and the rupee saw its best day in two months, jumping to 69.74 against the dollar even as crude prices firmed up. The benchmark 10-year bond yield closed trading at 7.29 per cent, down 7 basis points on the day after briefly falling to a low of 7.27 per cent.

Here is what experts say about the market performance following the Exit Poll Results:

"I expect another 2-3% rally in the market in the next three to four days based on the cue," Samrat Dasgupta, a fund manager at Esquire Capital Investment Advisors, was quoted as saying by news agency Reuters.

Analysts believe that a second term for the Narendra Modi-led government would ensure continuity in reform measures, initiated in the last five years, Reuters reported.

The NDA is seen to be relatively more fiscally disciplined and less populist in nature than its main rivals, which should augur well for inflationary dynamics, Madhavi Arora, economist, FX and rates at Edelweiss Securities wrote in a note.

"Some pick-up in fresh private investment may happen with policy and political certainty. But overall, policy focus should be on structural measures rather than mere policy rate cuts or looser fiscal stance," she said.

"A lot has been done but a lot more needs to happen in terms of the judiciary, generating employment growth, public sector divestment, attracting foreign investment, improving the fiscal deficit. So there is an awful lot more that needs to be done," said David Cornell, chief investment officer at Ocean Dial Asset Management. "I would expect more over the next five years," he added.

"The domestic equity markets witnessed unprecedented and remarkable surge, across all sectors and segments, after the exit polls indicated a higher probability for the current dispensation to come back to power with a clear majority, said Joseph Thomas, head of research at Emkay Wealth Management.

"What would help the markets sustain the momentum is factors that are fundamentally important, like decisive policy initiatives from the new government, faster land and labour reforms, and also the unfinished task of quick consolidation and re-organisation of the banking system."

"In terms of policies, we hope to see a continuation of what we saw in the first part of Modi's first term when the government implemented measures to improve the business climate, the bankruptcy code, GST, demonetisation," said Arjen van Dijkhuizen, chief Asia economist at ABN AMRO in Amsterdam.

"The later part of his term has been more populist to appease his voter base. We now hope the momentum on reforms will accelerate," he added.