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Moody's Cuts India's GDP Growth Forecast To 5.6% For 2019-20
India slowdown lasting longer than previously expected, says Moody's Consumption demand has cooled notably, the ratings agency adds GDP growth came in at more than six-year low of 5% in June quarter
14 Nov 2019, 12:57 PM IST 
- "We have revised down our growth forecast for India. We now forecast slower real GDP growth of 5.6 per cent in 2019, from 7.4 per cent in 2018," Moody's said on Thursday.
- Moody's expects economic activity in the country to pick up to 6.6 per cent in 2020 and 6.7 per cent in 2021, but remain lower than in the recent past.
- The cut in GDP growth projection follows a series of downgrades and warnings by economists amid concerns of a prolonged slowdown. Many economists have lowered their growth projections for the economy due to weak consumption and thousands of estimated job losses.
- "India's economic growth has decelerated since mid-2018, with real GDP growth slipping from nearly 8 per cent to 5 per cent in the second quarter of 2019 and joblessness rising."
- The latest cut marks at least the third straight downward revision by Moody's in its growth projections for the Indian economy.
- "Investment activity was muted well before that, but the economy was buoyed by strong consumption demand. What is troubling about the current slowdown is that consumption demand has cooled notably," Moody's said.
- The government has undertaken a number of measures to arrest the growth slowdown. In September, it announced a cut in the corporate tax rate to 22 per cent from 30 per cent. It also lowered the tax rate for new manufacturing companies to 15 per cent to attract new foreign direct investments.
- The government's other initiatives include bank recapitalization, the mergers of 10 public sector banks into four, support for the auto sector, plans for infrastructure spending, as well as tax benefits for startups.
- Moody's had in October lowered its growth forecast for India to 5.8 per cent from 6.2 per cent and said a weaker growth outlook will dampen the prospects for fiscal consolidation.
- In the same month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also lowered India's GDP growth forecast to 6.1 per cent in 2019 and 7 per cent in 2020. It however said the country still retains its rank as the world's fastest-growing major economy, tying with China.
