India Not a 'Tiger' Yet: Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian

Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian has a word of caution on the new growth numbers based on revised data, saying India is still a recovering economy and not a surging one or a "roaring tiger." He said the revisions in the gross domestic product or GDP numbers are "puzzling".

The Economic Survey for the year released today and penned by Mr Subramanian, pegs growth between 8.1 and 8.5 per cent next fiscal. The forecast marks an acceleration from growth of 7.4 per cent in the fiscal year now ending, giving Prime Minister Narendra Modi a chance to commit more funds to investment without resorting to deficit financing.

Responding to a question by NDTV on whether he accepts revisions in GDP data, Mr Subramanian said he is "puzzled by the data as it does not match the state of the economy".

The government last month revised up its economic growth to 6.9 per cent from 4.7 per cent in the fiscal year to March 2014 after it changed the formula to measure the economy.

"...India is still a recovering economy, not a surging economy that can be thought of as a tiger," he said.

Mr Subramanian punned on the saying "there are lies, damned lies and statistics" when he said, "There are uncertainties, puzzles and statistics." He said he would treat the new growth number cautiously.

The Economic Survey, however, says India is in a "sweet spot", rare in the history of nations, due to "both a political mandate for reform and change... and a relatively benign external environment mandate, which opens up the possibility for India to achieve sustainable double-digit growth".

The report also reiterates that the government will not overshoot its deficit target of 4.1 per cent of the GDP in the current fiscal year, and stands by a medium-term target of cutting it to 3 per cent of the GDP.

The Economic Survey is considered a report card of the economy.