Domestic credit rating agency India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) revised the gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the financial year 2021-22 to 9.4 per cent year-on-year, adding that the country's economic recovery will depend on the progress of the vaccination drive. If the country is able to vaccinate its entire adult population (18 years-plus) by the end of this year, then the GDP growth is expected to come in at 9.6 per cent, added Ind-Ra.
The credit rating agency's estimate suggests that around 5.2 million daily doses would have to be administered from August 18 to completely vaccinate more than 88 per cent of the adult population and to administer at least single doses to the remaining population by the end of the current financial year.
"Going by the pace of vaccination, it is now almost certain that India will not be able to vaccinate its entire adult population by December 31," said Ind-Ra in its statement.
The GDP growth projection of 9.4 per cent by the rating agency for the current financial year is mostly on the back of high-frequency indicators showing faster-than-expected economic rebound, as well as subsiding of the COVID second wave.
Meanwhile, last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced India's growth projection from 12.5 per cent to 9.5 per cent for the current fiscal year - down by three percentage points, following the deadly second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in the country.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its third bi-monthly monetary policy review for the fiscal year 2021-22, retained the GDP growth projection for the current financial year at 9.5 per cent, but raised the CPI inflation estimate to 5.7 per cent from 5.1 per cent, upon inflationary concerns.