Economic Survey 2017 To Be Tabled Today: 5 Things To Watch Out For

The government will table the Economic Survey for 2016-17 in Parliament around noon today, a day before tabling of the Union Budget 2017 by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley. A flagship annual document of the Ministry of Finance, the Economic Survey reviews the developments in the Indian economy over the previous 12 months, summarises the performance on major development programmes, and highlights the policy initiatives of the government. The Economic Survey also highlights prospects of the economy in the short to medium term. Economic Survey is prepared by Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian and his team.

Here are 5 things to watch out for:

GDP projections: The Survey's growth projection for 2017-18 and estimates for the current year (2016-17) will be keenly eyed in the wake of demonetisation. The IMF has cut India's growth rate for the current fiscal year (2016-17) to 6.6 per cent from its previous estimate of 7.6 per cent due to the "temporary negative consumption shock" of demonetisation. For 2017-18, the International Monetary Fund has projected a growth rate of 7.2 per cent as against its previous forecast of 7.6 per cent.

Demonetisation: Analysts will also be watching what Mr Subramanian and his team has to say on demonetisation, which took away 86 per cent or Rs 15.44 crore worth of high-denomination notes out of circulation. Demonetisation hit the consumption spending, which contributes nearly 60 per cent to gross domestic product. Judging how quickly the economy will recover has been a tough call for economists.

Universal basic income: Mr Subramanian has been quoted as saying in reports that universal basic income could feature in economic survey. Universal basic income is a sort of social security in which all residents of a country regularly receive periodic cash payment unconditionally from the government.

Global factors: The chief economic advisor's comments on global economy, particularly when protectionist policies are on the rise in many parts of the globe and crude oil prices are rising, will be keenly watched.

Black money: In last year's Survey, Mr Subramanian had stressed the need for higher tax compliance. India's overall tax to GDP is about 5.4 percentage points less than that of comparable countries, the Survey had noted. In India today, roughly 5.5 per cent of earning individuals are in the tax net. This statistic gives an idea of the gap that India needs to cover to become a full tax-paying democracy, the Survey had noted. Mr Subramanian's comments on the government's focus to eradicate black money would be closely watched.