alone Welcome you watching NDTV and today's budget. A lot of expectations ahead of the budget. What will our the finance minister, Nirmala Seetharaman, have in store for the country? There, you can see the office that she has arrived there. End. She is on Route Arts of Fifth Budget, that she will be presenting lot of challenges ahead. All that. There, you can see the finance minister along with her team. That's the paperless budget. It's a paperless budget. Is that a tablet that she's holding, which is going to be reading of it wrong? She's been having paperless budgets now for some time she was in the Finance Ministry, and now she's headed presumably to Parliament and in some time in a couple of hours from now will see the what this budget is all about. There is enormous expectation about this images from the Finance Ministry now, just as a reminder to our viewers throughout the day now starting. We've already started a couple of hours back, but going all the way too late at night. Every aspect of the budget and I think Gare de Boer a goal is, is to make it actually quite simple. the budget often tends to be difficult to understand. What we're trying to do over here is to break down what the budget actually says, what it means not just in terms of taxes but in terms of the overall economic outlook, what it means for the direction our country is taking. Is there a genuine sense of hope? Certainly the economic survey seemed to reflect that. A lot of positive aspects coming out of that is a lot of that going to be reflected in budget proposals. And also the focus on the budget is yes, it is the one day but going forward 15 government. We have lots of announcements coming in and of course, a lot of hopes. And as we said for the salary class, look at taxes in tax labs aam Aadmi, hoping for more spending, power going forward and steps will be taken in terms of inflation as well. But there you can see the Finance Minister all set there with her team and holding that tablet for the last two years. In fact, Vishnu, I just looked it up while you were saying lot of global. With two years we have had a paperless bad budget. So it's a tablet that she has with her. And last year the budget speech went on several hours. It was long Panellist even felt that if it's a short speech that means is more meat in it and don't have too much for us, there is going to be a very long long. I think it's also important target to reflect. Iran will be joined by a a super panel of guests throughout the day on a couple of key points. As far as the budget is concerned, the state of the economy rather is concerned. I think the key focus and we saw this in the economic survey yesterday is recovery complete. Those were the words used. The focus is Look, we have gone through the pandemic. It is debatable, but the census that we need to go beyond what the pandemic had for the economy and how it held us back. So recovery complete, we need to move on, GDP wrote. 6 to 6.8% is projected. The context is India remains among the fastest growing in the world in terms of what the government actually sees where we are at in terms of the economy limit is quote a small part of the economic survey. The situation is analogous to 1998 9 to 2002, when transformative reforms had lagged growth reforms because of temporary shocks. But once these temporary shocks faded, there were growth dividend. So the census that the shocks which we faced not least of all because of external factors a Ukraine ward, food, inflation, fuel, inflation and, indeed, the pandemic. Once that eases, then they would be growth dividends. The question, however, is that in as much as we are optimistic about the state of our economic growth and what our economy promises, there are external factors and a lot of economies. Big economy is the threat of recession of them. Sliding into that is a factor would actually impact India, and that will be one affected by the wrist, suggesting that is some And there's been a lot of talk of India taking advantage of the situation with China right now that we could have a lot of investments coming our way and manufacturing could take a you know, a huge could see some headwinds they're given the and something that we need to, you know, be in position to take advantage of. But let's cool cross that to our guests. Now that we have in serious Mr Jaffe, want to add something here on this point of headwinds in a venue. When I look at the immediate neighbourhood Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, I have I have relief and isolates that we have done better. When I talk to businesses and all the business persons say that India is going to do very good, we have lots of hope because there's a China plus one strategy for most businesses in the world. So a lot of this optimism, even in the economic survey, is stemming from what's happening outside our borders and and the news coming from outside. The key question is, how are we doing within our our own country? And though we have done better, we have responded. We have come out better from this Ukraine war crisis and other crisis in the sense that we have. But seven years ago, when this government cave, we was certain that we were doing well. Today we have hope. So there's a bleakness in the hope also that we see today I just wanted to into introduce are fantastic panellists who we have with us Divya Vijay Babu, Asia, as a partner with Deloitte, India Thanks very much for being with us. Rohinton See adviser, also a partner, an expert on direct taxes and personal taxes. So we've got the tax front covered over here. But why don't we just get to that in in In your view, is there likely to be some sort of relief? It It is, for example, what the has suggested in terms of relief for the middle class as something that spurs economic growth. Going forward is, is something that people can look forward to either. The expectation is there that the relief is should be there for middle class, especially with the rates not being a slab not being changed for years now. But when I look at the economic survey which came out, you know, we look at the GDP growth being 6 to 6.8 and maybe pegged at 6.5 next year, we will have to see how the finance minister balances out gaseous. We should expect some relief in the slabs which are a sleeping on that front and after Cove in the pandemic years. The middle class and salary class are really, really hoping this time person relief and also this is the last full budget ahead of the general election. So also, you know, we want to have you on. Do you have expectation that there'll be more populist announcement or not a more control? So I feel there should be. You know, I mean, some change in the slabs for sure looks like, and also important is to see how the direction which are there, for example, a T C. Has not changed for many years now. The limit of one lakh 50 really needs to go up and one way the government could located because there is need for infrastructure. So if they could introduce infrastructure bonds, I don't know. They were introduced earlier for only one year. So I think some of these measures would really help. And in fact, when I looked at the economic survey, it also talks about people spending more going to the contact which is there with the malls or restaurants or spending out. So I think it's they really want to encourage that there should be more spendable income in the hands of the individuals. So therefore, there is a case to believe. Provide some relief. Let's see, It's a task considering the GDP growth, but let's talk about direct taxes a little bit. Direct tax I where you see direct tax collections and also your thoughts on GST revenues, which have actually come in the economy, is fairly buoyant on the basis of that. The second the election and therefore January water The implications of that for this budget, which is being prepared. Sure. So before I comment on that, I just wanted to say something on the meeting nous of the budget, the less the final minister speaks, we've seen as tax advisers that the devil is usually in the details then, so you want you want something short. So a sax advisers experience tells us that if the budget speech is shot, everything is in the fine print, and it takes maybe a 24 hours to uncover the fine print. So, in any case of coming back to the collections, collections have been buoyant. But again, we have got to be careful about thinking about the buoyancy. A buoyancy is in context of previous two years which have actually been very, very low ramp aid and there. So it's a low base. It's a low pace. So we have actually got to kind of straight line the entire trend and go back all 2018 2019 and then project. So if you see more or less yes, we are still growing. There's no doubt about it, but its growth based on a very low base of the previous year. The second thing has yea has been a game changer for us. There is no doubt about the buoyancy of GST revenue and the fact that it's bringing a lot of businesses into the tax neck and key in This is the technology that the department is very, very strongly applying in years. Coming head about how we link up data that comes from GST with direct tax revenues and try and bring an equal amount of taxpayers into the direct tax. Next the N f. You see the correlation of trends. Usually both of them tend to be kind of GST actually should go higher than direct taxes. But direct taxes, actually now catching up has almost the same level a little higher than GST revenues. So that's another train to watch as we move forward on this taxes. I think there is a lot of scope for increasing taxation in the sands. That to what? No on different items, not not as a slap for income troll. For example, Alcohol is outside GST now if alcohol is a cash cow for all politicians in states, because that's whether that's where they make most of their money in in bribery and corruption. So I think if alcohol was got under GST, I think so. GST revenues, which have been very good like you just said in January they would shoot up substantially it. I think that's that's very important show the other thing, important thing. How it relates to farming is that farmers grow for markets. I mean, you normally hear a narrative of all economist talking about finding markets for farm produce. It's not like that is exactly opposite. Farmers grow what markets demand. So if we can structure taxation to increase increased demand for for produce, which is healthy, it would make a difference. Now we are increasing health care cause of what I am suggesting, and we've been suggesting to the government in the battery budget discussions is too lax, unhealthy diets and foods, that is, that is a re ated rings which have more sugar. It's happen in Mexico. It's happening in many countries, and it's worked. Its reduces healthcare costs, long term healthcare, Cosa hardy relate. Long term goals were short term goals, increasing revenues. So that's why I really think you need to increase taxation on unhealthy foods. Foods within such unsaturated fats. Lots of it. High high sugar content to these are things and aspects it can be looked at. It should be looked at because if you want the systems of focus on health in the last couple of years and smiling about increasing if it don't tax, just all toxic, if it does tax unhealthy foods now we will be spending at least three or show more times on diabetes and other cost. Later on here. I just wanted to update our viewers on on way things stand right now. The Union budget, 2023 2020 for its scheduled to be presented in parliament by the Finance minister, Nirmala See Tara one. She was in the Finance Ministry till a few minutes back she's gotten into a car. She showed us The tablet from India is going to be reading out the budget. It's a paperless budget, and she's on her way, presumably to Parliament. Now what she announces will set the foundation in terms of taking India's economic growth to the forecasted rate of up to 6.8%. Some would suggest that that might be somewhat conservative. A lot of people felt that it would be in excess of 7% but perhaps that has a great deal to do with macroeconomic factors as well. This is Asgard, he mentioned Nirmala. Seat caravans, fifth budget presentation since 2019. Besides the annual budget speech delivered by the finance minister, 14 budget documents are also important parts of the union budget. That's right. Well, let's Anna focus on other sectors as well. And what about manufacturing again? We know we when we're talking about China and what this last year has been like and how India can take advantage of people looking elsewhere away from China. How can India become more inviting to the sort of investments? So maybe maybe I'll take that question. Basically, I'm sure everybody's man speculating at the brand that the tablet is from. But clearly India's trying to make these strides of increasing the share of manufacturing in India. Obviously, the fact that we have more blue collar jobs in India adds to the manufacturing base and the strength of the economy. So clearly the government is doing trying to kind of, I mean, they started this maybe two years back where they tried to see that. Okay, let's try and benefit from the reorganisation of supply change that's happening around the world. And let's try and see if we can use this opportunity to set up a base in India. I think mixed results. As of now, most of the churning that's actually come out from China has actually gone to Southeast Asia rather than come to India. But India is definitely looking at making a shot at actually trying to kind of build a base of production over here because after oil, the biggest set of imports that come into the country's electronics and if we can reduce that size of imports, that's going to help us. A. Lastly, I think something that I really caught my eye in the economic survey is the train that we are seen in domestic consumption. Domestic consumption is on a uptick. The economic survey calls it pent up demand, but like that as a trained for the future, a domestic market is starting to kind of really open up, and consumer spending is going to rise tremendously are consequently manufacturing in India is going to be not just a good to have for all global companies that want that make products but will be a must have. So I think it's it's definitely going to happen. But the size and scale that we have wanted to happen and the speed at which we wanted to be not not. I just wanted to ask Mr Jacket about inflation. Now. Retail inflation had picked at 7.8%. I think it was in April. Last date was in April last year, well above the RBI's tolerance rate that's gone down substantially. The economic survey itself said that Lok Um however, it remains one of the lowest in the world now. The point I was making even yesterday is that you know, when it's convenient for us, we look at the rest of the world and when it's not convenient. We sort of look inwards. The fact of the matter is our economic progress and the progress of billions is going to be defined by inflation. How much of a concern is that for you? Even though the numbers are improving? I think compared to the last budget, we are much better of like in the last budget. We we were really worried about inflation, but inflation has been paper to a lot of to a large level. If you look at Europe and you look at other other countries, we have done much better. And I am. I am personally happy that it's been under control because I had presumed it would be much higher in the holier. So it's There has been relief on on that part, but obviously inflation, it's away livelihoods of the salary class. Inflation, in a way, sometimes helps the farming community because prices prices go up. Only the asset owning class actually benefits from inflation. If there is a benefit and the salary class obviously suffers, suffers from it already, well, we could take a short break at this stage. It's an exciting day today by the end of it, well, so much information coming out of five years. I think we have to figure out how we go to process all of that. The union budget that's going to be coming up. You've got lots of guests from India and in fact around the world as well. Because India's budget is being looked at around the world water. The implications were one of the largest economies out there. We saw that in the IMF report as well. And what's gonna what is going to mean for so many? Welcome back. We're counting down to the budget at 11 o'clock and where the finance ministers is great anticipation. Ahead of that, she is expected to announce a lot of measures to help the Indian economy a sail through the turbulent times ahead recession it set up. But the good news Vishnu this morning, the markets in quite optimistic, I let go across to Sakshi for more on that Sakshi markets are wrap up for 100. That's right, it's budget day and the markets are clearly excess, so we can see both the benchmark indices up over half a percent, up over 0.5%. All sectoral indices significantly in the green so clearly the mask, it's more market momentum is while that is looking forward to the budget. But it's also crucial to discuss some sectors and stocks and what is really the budget impact on markets because people really often ask us what is relieving impact. So, for instance, if there is a defence push there, of course talks like of course at Alba and Marat Forge will get impacted. If there is, for instance, and infra push Ln tarmacs Dean, other kind of stocks bill see getting impacted. So of course, they're sector specific movement that we will see if there is a railway push. Then there are stocks like, of course, ti tagger, waggons and so on that we get impacted Farmer hospitality and the list is really endless. So of course, the budget impact on markets is crucial. More so really on the economy, sensitive driven stocks and, of course, banking, rural agricultural, really, So the list is really unless and of course, of course, it's a positive start. It's an optimistic start to the day, like you said, but if we look at 1/4 how the markets and the budget have performed historically, it's an interesting trend. We can see a score Zahra Bins. In the past 6 to 7 years, we've also analyse that data. There have been significant movements, both higher as well as law. So of course, the spotlight really is on how the markets will close and how, of course, this budget will impact markets today. Already, let's a go cross to sew it now who joins us from Mumbai? And so Ita high expectation clearly there on the last week? Absolutely. In fact, if you see behind me, I am present at the Dalal Street where and also this is the last full budget ahead of the 2020 for elections. For a lot of anticipation as well. Joining me is a P. Shukla, the CEO of jointly capital in Mumbai, as well as a very big stock. Experts are thank you for joining in for speaking to NDTV. The first question is a lot of anticipation that have been a lot of talk show as a stock investors. What are your the anticipation or expectation from the budget today and we see a good opening in the in the pre budget morning now market, he settled and market is no trading as their usual market is suing for 100 plus point nineties 100 plus points and welcoming the budget in a post it note to the finance minister, We have expectation is a long pending demand STC visage imposed on the immediate transaction to the traders. Investors that should go. It's the impose mint Chidambaram was finance minister and now there is a long term capital gain is already imposed and also there is a double taxation. Know where is double taxes and government is also looking there have to curbing. There should not be extra taxes from the public. But why there is in our market double taxes that is our long pending one that should be considered and the second point how current account deficit in this budget is maintained. Our expected sent offices around the 3.3 and 3.5. Then it's all well and good. There is no problem. The whole world economy is looking how India is going to manage these things, expenditure and income, so that should be maintained. If it is around 3, 3.5, then it's a good if it is over 3.5 foreign investors has agitation. India will manage well, are not. That is the big question. Mars. So we are thinking because our export is good, we have to boost it again through Pioli another way. So we are expecting. If government is doing something in that part, then market will welcome and industry will welcome. And some also, though, implies in their pocket there should be deduction in the taxes, so direction in the taxes as well as the red double taxes on several buying and selling with stops. A lot of expectation not only from the Indian market but also the global market is especially looking at the budget as well as the markets today. So a big day ahead of the budget. Yes, a good start for the day. But what will happen after the budget is something that we will be tracking and GE G as of now, a lot of expectations from the stock exports at Lal Street. Well, thanks very much so. It will keep coming back to the stock market and its reaction over the next couple of hours. It's very buoyant now for 100 up, but is that going to be the case going forward? we joined by Congress leader Rajeev Gowda at the stage. Thanks, Mr God, away much for being with us. You know, I was going through some of the tweets of the former finance minister, Mr Chidambaram yesterday and he says, and maybe quote There is insufficient acknowledgement of three stark facts that world growth and the world trade and the trade in the world trade will slow down, that many advanced economies will go into a recession and that the global security situation will deteriorate. Now that's what Mr Chidambaram says. What the economic survey actually says is and recovery complete. So Iran mean, How would you respond to those who say that Mr Chidambaram is being somewhat pessimistic now, actually, as being very realistic? If you think about the economic service conclusion recurring, complete. If this is recovery, got help India, because what is happening to jobs? What is happening to inflation? What happening to actual growth prospects? You know these will of what's happening to exports and the deficit that we're facing on the current accounts. So this is young. We've certainly picked up that have dispute over. But you know what you need to compare is the brief endemic trajectory are he will close to that. Or you want to compare with Prime Minister Molly's statement that we will be a five trillion economy. 2022 were in 2023 now at 3.18 trillion. Even with the weakening rupee is not yielding better exports. What you have seeing, actually, is that we can't export away out because the global economy is under great stress for the points that Mr Chidambaram made out or earlier. Along with that what is the agenda on unemployed, right? If if you think about rural, you know how the government stopped collecting statistics we are relying on CMI and other sources. And Holland are very, very worst. This you see women's participation at historic low and you see a lot of people dropping up. Mr. Gowda, let's take a couple of those points so that we rake it up. You know, Labour Force participation rates are low in India. Who would like to actually talk a little bit about this, Mr Jack, A body like to take this on what can be done to increase participation rates, Labour force participation rates, which are road. How how do you incentivise jobs. I don't at various. I think that the misconception that you see in all the media reports that have been coming about unemployment jobs as I would want to differentiate between the two. So there are jobs which the government gives the state government vacancies. A dense central government. Vacancies are there, like you say, they're locks of the vacancies available that need to be fielded. But what really is required is private sector jobs and self employed employment. So I would focus on employment other than on jobs. And I think you need to create industry and only private sector can give jobs. The government cannot get jobs. Government can only fill vacancies which need to be filled in. But that should not be confused with employment. And we have to focus and make make businesses successful. So those jobs get created the interesting, he said earlier, when we're asking what expectation from farmers in the agree as industries that a lot of the farmers don't want their Children, they won their Children to be able to get jobs outside in in fact job. In fact, when I when I go because I tribal often a mean through the year be travelling in two different states villages and meeting people. The only aspiration farmers have is their Children get government jobs. 41 private jobs. Everyone's focusing on government job. That's why you'll see there's 500 vacancies and there are 50,000 people who apply for those, and that itself shows the state of the economy. I just wanted to go across to Dr J. Sicker Seddon. She is an adjunct fellow at the World Wani Chair in US India Policy studies. Thanks very much for being with us. You know, the budget today would certainly be looked at very, very closely. It's interesting that we have you on the show today because it comes at a time when we have got our national security advisor in the United States that has talk about transfer of technology and the manufacture of jet engines in India. That's important not just in terms of national security requirements but also in terms of building the ecosystem for development at manufacture of high tech items in India. How significant is that? Well, I think with what that visit highlights is actually the different ways of looking at today's budget There is a short term and there is a long term and I think one of the things coming from I lived in India for a long time, but now I'm outside and I have the luxury of looking at the long term part of it. Nothing looking in the budget at how the tax incentives, how the fiscal incentives are used to motive. A newer, higher tack, more sustainable industries. That's important. Also, I heard a lot of discussion of jobs in media jobs. Immediate relief. The longer term version of that is investment in health care, investment in education, not just primary education but also vocational technical, lifelong education. To what extent are we going to see those who longer run investments similarly on the other side of the budget, not just the immediate policy changes, but this signalling about what are the priority Investments in infrastructure, some indication of a longer run orientation, toured filling gaps in logistical chains in looking at quartz and infrastructure from a perspective of climate and economic resilience. Those are the kinds of things that I think externally, a really important knowing that this is the last full budget before the election but also being aware that the budget is an incredibly powerful, both signalling and fiscal instrument for setting the economy on a longer run, human centred, more sustainable trajectory. And so we're looking a book. All right, I'd like to get Karuna Gopal Leader, BJP A here at to take on what we were discussing earlier, Mr Chidambaram criticism as well of the economic survey and saying that they haven't taken in the reality of the fact that the world is going to slow down and trade is going to slow down. That recession is there and the global security situation will deteriorate. Well, they are we A lot depends on very place, your focus. So if you have a very insular vision than you going to just start looking at only those things. Not today. If we really go up and have an aerial view, we understand that the entire world, Lissy and that perhaps, has been discussed before I joining. Now why is that happening? That's having 22 reasons, one has. If you see what happened in the Swiss Alps, everybody wanted to hear the India Storey, and when the IMF chief talked about two important things one is the reduction, great reduction and global contraction in the growth rate and it's going to stabilise some Meryem 2.7, India's pegged at 6.8. So that's a great storey. The second important thing perhaps all of us and the world has to listen to is is about one advise that she's given that states have that countries and world leaders have to collaborate. This is the time nobody can. I think the point is not that and I don't think it's anyone's intention to sort of talk down the Indian economy and where we stand. There is a lot which is positive and but I think it's the macroeconomic trends external to India, which are a matter of concern. There is a war that's not ending any time. Inflation around the world, there are global economies headed into decision. So I think the point made by Mr Chidambaram is look, talk optimistic. That's all fine. But then this is the larger picture. It is bound to impact India. How would you want to that? Yes, so you know, if you want to touch anyone with a modicum of knowledge would say that we are looking at the entire scenario with cautious optimism. We are not just extremely happy of flying that heights. We are cautiously optimistic because we know the entire world scenario. Anything can happen today, the the the relationship between China and America and go awry. Anything can go wrong and we are kind of prepared for that. So keeping that in view yesterday when the prime minister talked about this budget might have something for the world as well. I am hoping that typically if you look at China and India, IMF said that almost 50% of the world's growth is dependent on these two economists. But if you look at the way China acts in terms of its relationship with other economies, the diplomacy was called the death trap diplomacy. But look at India. India's diplomacy has not been named, but I would like to call it a diploma, but be on talking about the things that India is doing and there's a lot that right. I think we have bailed out. We have billed out Sri Lanka very beautifully. We stood guarantee with the IMF for the 2.9 million U. S. Dollars. That's not answering my question Karuna but I'll come back to in a little while and I think Mr Gowda would like to respond to that. I am going to take a short break at this day. Also look at the images of the press and the with the finance minister and the president has tweeted as well. The offices tweeted about how the union finance called on them and senior officials of the Ministry of Finance called on President Ropati murmur at the Rashtrawadi Bhavan before presenting the budget. Counting down to the budget are there You have the finance minister meeting with the president ahead of arriving in. So what are 20 minutes before the budget is presented? The finance minister now after having met the president, presumably on a way to parliament at the state's Aloni Roy partner, Deloitte India, as well as also Mr Pipin Safra. Mr Soprano, me come to you first, you know, in terms of incentives which various sectors would be looking at an era you handle taxes very, very closely. What about customs make in India? These are certain areas where which would be looking at some som or some form of incentives. Let's talk about customs first. What sort of incentives do think the finance minister needs to look at closely given the current state of finances are getting an exemptions of reduction on taxes? I don't think is on the card is not being talked about. What is being talked about is that there is a lot of money which is stuck in litigation, and the industry is looking at an amnesty scheme, possibly for all cases, customs for the past period, customs export promotion. A lot of these schemes had. There has been a lot of talk about that for the past few years, and this is the year when everybody is looking at that. An amnesty scheme will come in then from a perspective of incentives there is. Apart from customs duties, there would be hoped that there would be procedural simplifications in a lot of issues, whether it's Carlotta, which is the rules of origin, which are there and how they are being looked at by the Indian customs and obviously the production link incentive schemes has been there was talk about that in the economic survey. There has been a continuous talk about that and a lot of schemes are in the pipeline and in the last two years we have seen that the industry has really benefited from the incentive schemes. A lot of investment has come in because of that. So we are looking at more schemes being notified out there in this coming budget. GST collections have been remarkable out. A couple of years back, we were talking about all that had gone wrong. As far as GST is concerned, it's now something which is ear Oh, it's synonymous with with our economic progress tax collections, it's been streamlined. It's been much more automated than it was earlier on. I do believe that a lot of the confidence which you know, the economic survey shows, is riding on the back of good numbers coming in with January having been the second highest GST collection of the country. Yes, I agree with both of you, said GST is actually the collections actually indicate the health of the economy, so it's clear that, you know, we are in a good space. Collections have been more or less consistent 1.5 lakh crore month on month, you know, GST collections. So what we have you know, this being an indicator of how the economy is doing. Considering that what we have around the globe, with the war a recession, I think we also need to be mindful that we we won't be alienated from that. That's going to impact us as well. But the fact that we have this buoyant GST collection is definitely a kn indicator that the economy is showing all the right science. We have the right infrastructure, things that we're doing. The measures that have been adopted by the government are going well. Mr Jackal, we were talking about the agricultural sector. This is another area which has been doing quite well. I mean, this is what the economic survey says. The performance of agriculture and allies sectors has been buoyant. They've come out with lots of measures, the lots of numbers as well in terms of the top three or your top three areas which say the agriculture sector or people involved with it would be looking at the list a couple of your primary areas, so I would focus on long term objectives that could be achieved by this budget and I would list them as three or four things. One is to have a statutory farmers commission at this in the central government. Because the government has got into this habit of taking Adwa from people who are in the business of giving advice and not listening to stakeholders. They're focusing on objectives rather than focusing on the process of reaching those objectives. And this is by the farm laws. Problem also came up because they did not talk to stakeholders who we need of statuary, Farmers Commission, Long term. Second, we need a nationally consistent database. State governments have data different department since different ministries, departments and state government. Same with the union mystery. They're just not talking to each other. That data is available, and we need a database that can be accessed by everyone we need. We need investment in human resources. There's 50% vacancy in agriculture extension workers, which gave advice to farmers. That's why you're using more pesticides. That's why using more fertilisers were growing unhealthy. Food also and universities have 50% vacancies at all levels from the beyond, till the level of professors and assistant professors and scientists we need farm ecosystem services is how the world is going to progress if if we are going to improve now. We do not have a measurement metrics for that. So we need investment and how to develop that matrix because only if we can measure something will be be able to pay for it. So these things are long term things that are quiet, and we need a tribunal like the debt. Ric Krupp Recovery Tribunal for farm loans. Also, why should only industry loans be waived off and and, you know, be declared bad loans and they get restructuring? I think so. It should also happen for farm loans. So we need to have some level playing field for farmers with this And lastly, I would want to say, is that the government keeps promising not just this government as a farmer's. Be not talking about this government basically for the last many years, including the government's before this is promising higher minimum support prices for farmers. So all be been asking consistently is at least if you can't give us MSP for all the crops procurement that you're doing, at least ensure that no crops land on Indian shores, which sell below MSP. On one side, you say that China will sell it lets 100 units, ₹100 per unit and you allowing it's imported ₹70 per unit. It's it's ridiculous. All right, Well, on that note will slip into a short break away, counting down to the budget and on the other side, we're going to focus on the real estate sector. And one of the expectation there will be joined by Rajiv Talwar. Welcome back. Recounting down to the budget, Nirmala Seetharaman will make that speech in just a little while from now in about in our to go from now and lots of expectations. Some announcements to bolster the economy there lots of concerns going for they can see the visuals of the convoy making its way now to parliament. Animal a Seetharaman also met with the president a short while ago called on the president ahead of And there she is, arriving at driving past Carta V a bath. And I think on after meeting the president. And then she is going to carrying onto Parliament presumably. So it's an hour and 10 minutes from now is when they can see the pictures that were shared by the Rashtrawadi Bhavan of that meeting that took place well we've been talking about manufacturing. We've been talking about employment creation expectations on the friendly winner, you know, and, of course, the middle class, hoping for some tax relief from this. A budget is the It's the last full budget ahead of general elections. So we're expecting perhaps some populist measures there. But let's talk about the real estate sector now. We're also joined by Rajiv Talwar, and the real estate sector did take a beating over the last couple of years, especially during the cove, India's. But now we've seen some kind of a recovery. What are you what are the expectations from the sector from this budget morning issue? And of course, the the experts over here, I think, yes, locks of expectations for the real estate sector, as you know, that they have been finding it a problem in many parts of the country defaults and of course, practises which have occurred over there last Homebuyers being deprived of getting their homes on time. So I think what they're really looking forward is that this is one sector which is seen an uptick in the last one year. They have been good sales, robust sales. They have been very good revenue collections from real estate, especially in the state of Maharashtra and others which have given a concession and therefore, what should one expect? That yes, home loans are the safest category of borrowings, so they're forced. This requirement of just two lakhs being deducted on payment of interest needs to be increased to five lakhs at least show that people do take home loans and are able to deduct it and repay those home loans. In fact, loan to value and India is amazing that home loans are repaid within seven years. One would know from abroad than the mortgage rates are such that home loans carry on for something like 10 to 20 years, so therefore increasing it will only increase the amount of activity in this sector. And why is that required? I think I mean, besides other demands, urbanisation is something which is forecast to home at least 870 million people by 2047 or 2050 going by the current example that we have in India right from independence. Still, today, 50% of people in cities either live in shanties or they live in unauthorised colonies. I think we need to plan one hell of a lot to now have a national debate on this. Yes, what kind of urbanisation will be go in for So the next demand comes in that affordable housing, which is rarely 60 square metres till 60 square metres. That limit has been set on a price line. It's about 45 lakhs now. Please try finding that in metro cities of Super Metro's it's virtually impossible year. So therefore, maybe it needs to be increased anywhere up to accrue. I couldn't agree more. And this is something which comes up in budget after budget housing, for for the masses, housing at rates which are which actually makes sense. But the numbers that we've seen have not been realistic. We need to take another short break. Just a reminder. Two of us in about an hour from now. And our five minutes exactly is when Nirmala Seetharaman, the finance minister, begins his speech the union budget in parliament. But after this short break, we just take a look at some of the key points mentioned in the economic survey and where that might actually be there. You can see the finance minister again with that tablet that she has is in Parliament. Yes. And there they are, posing for the cameras for the media had a is interesting guard. You remember the briefcase which are the people, is budget So yes, once again and they're finally got symbol of digitalisation and supports in India. We got to stay with these pictures. There is a huge sense of anticipation over here on this budget. It comes after a very positive economic survey and real expectations, with also suggesting that the lefty what finally happens there are concerns at a global level will reflect on all of that and some of the key points that's coming up. God, A panel of experts from de Loix to been with us. We've been talking about several sectors. I think we need to focus a little bit more. And what? And I were really counting down to the we are in to go for the stock a little bit about climate change, energy independence By 2047. These were key aspects of the economic survey and the national green hydrogen mission. And, you know, you were talking a little bit about we were talking about that in the break. How essential is that towards in our energy independence? So I think the world is going green and there is a special push What we see from India to really push that sector. We have been reading about a production Lincoln Centre scheme for the green hydrogen as a fuel. I think it's very critical, and I think India is taking the lead out there. We hope to see a much more on that and not only from a incentive scheme, but the overall. You know, Mr Maitre, what is interesting is a couple of weeks back, the Power Minister, R. K. Singh. When I asked him a question about which is a ferry time tested question and I said that you know who is going to be paying for clean technology in India, which has been a constant problem, and his response is that why do you assume that that is still a problem? It's not because people want to invest in India with a lot of this technology, including green technology, because it just makes economic sense. So have we overcome that hurdle of who is going to be paying for take people want to build shop over here? No, I don't think he solved the hurtle. I think our estimates such as that. If you want to make the Net zero transition Indian, it's to a tractor on $500 billion. Now, obviously there are $300 billion of what of capital private capital, and this is not government Capitol. This has to be invested by companies and not only building green eyed Asian, but you're to build solar to build wind, then, is to be resignation in nuclear power. So while the green hydrogen mission is a good start, that's not going to the solution to the full energy independence problem. Also again, a good point around that is how to be tracked capture green financing around the world. That's a new phenomenon of SG funds investing in energy neutral projects, and India has to be at the forefront of doing it. I think Eli schemes are good start, but I think they're as spare, more proactive approach and creating feasible projects. Mr. Green Original is an example. Any production of green hydrogen around the world today costs $78 per kg. There is no viable use for green hydrogen below or above $4 so you have to bridge the gap of three or $4. For that, you need technology, innovation in need, vertical integration like manufacturing, electoral Eisner's in India. And for that you need capital. So I don't see the capital's just go to come. I think they have to figure out a business case. Be proactive about attracting green investors and green funds to invest in these projects in India. The other area, of course, is Bactrian battery technology. It's it's just it's so expensive right now that it doesn't make sense for so many. Is that something that needs to be overcome? Buddy like to sort of talk a little bit. I don't believe that, you know, while we have seen the ally for, like, we need to see more on this especially, and I do expect that there would be announcements in this budget. India taking the leadership of the G 20 and I think sustainability we're coming for the annual development goals are so I do believe there will announcements around that India does want to be seen as a soft five, especially in these areas, so I think it would be a good a great beginning for India to make certain announcements in the budget you know, even your into just to show to the world that we want to be leaders in this space. So I do anticipate there would be announcements on ever counting down to the budget. And let's talk about expectations ahead of the issue. This is the last full budget the Modi government going to present before the general elections, we were discussing about populist measures. Whether there there's a lot of expectations coming out of the Cove, India weather taxes are going to be cut. That is something that is an expectation could last couple of years. We haven't seen any of that or the slabs change so we can talk a bit Mississippi about expectation. When the taxes front I talk about to expectations one is make cooperate India's life filing obligations a lot simpler writing that is one of the clear expectations. It's also come up on us away that divided pre budget. The second thing that is, you know, bubbling under the colder and I would say, is that this 15% lower manufacturing rate is currently available in a very kind of a restrictive way. It's available only if you set up a new company with new manufacturing capacity. Now one of the things that kept coming up in many of our industry forums is that why is this wrist to Dhoni to new companies with you? What about existing companies who expand manufacturing capacity? So I think I would like to see a Segway into this provision as well. Well, the government is very serious of attracting private investment and wants to incentivise new capital build up in the country. They should allow that Segway also for existing investors, companies which are already in the country. So I think that is something that's an expectation as well and also linked to that They come something's want law to be simple and reduce the litigation. I think that's an important aspect. Also sure, Mr Petra water some of the key areas that you would be looking at personally in terms of really driving this new sighting there are two areas is a very important. In my opinion, India has been remarkable amongst all emerging markets in controlling fiscal deficit, so I would be under look out for the government adopting a do no harm policy are not doing a large fiscal expansion. I know it will be difficult in the year of elections, but if there is a road map to fiscal consolidation to 5% and below the that will be taken positively where several investors are in the second thing, just the incentive to attract more foreign direct investments. I think India has been supported by domestic institutional investors and government capital of the last 12 months. I would like to see some indications and inkling and someplace simplifications which signals that India is open for business and foreign. And we need to really focus on, given the way the world is as we have been talking India, Indian economy being looked at globally and the China situation and you know, to attract more of that kind of investment. So we talk about it a lot, but we need to clearly do a lot more on that front. Yes, we absolutely to do. I think the allies are a good measure, but I think has been learnt. Incentive should be sector specific, it should be project specific and we should be also cognizant, aware to attract the capital from I think, I believe, looking at the resurgence of Jap Japan, there's a lot of potential to attract Japanese capital into India. That's low cost capital. That's long term capital. So I think the government needs to have a little bit more of a focus tradition where to get the capital from and to come of it sector specific policies in batteries, for example, fame to was a good policy, which was battery specific. So then, if you can create sector specific policies and pro industries that be held fully, attracting more investments and more of doing it will be interesting. You spoke about Japan because we have with us doctor or a deep Nandi vice president in Nomura. And thank you so much for joining us, talking about the budget expectations, if you could. You know, terrorists, what you'd like, what you would be looking for in the budget. I mean, look, and this is going to be tricky budget always because it is a politically sensitive calendar. But, yes, one thing that seems to come across is that the government is looking at fiscal consolidation, wrecked with the balance between consolidation and prudence, versus trying to cater to expectation. See, of middle class of our expectation is that the number that the magic number of fiscal deficit will come at 5.9% of GDP versus 6.4% of GDP and F 23 now inside this what we expect years a strong who's to cap ex. We've seen the economic survey yesterday where there's been a lot of talk in terms of how Catholics is as the front and centre of the government's economic strategy on. And they also talked about why fiscal consolidation is important. So it's probably going to be cap ex heavy budget. So and people keep talking about consumption. Goose, I think, is going to be much more suffering, right so they might tweak the tax rates a base. The government mind increased the outlays of some social sector programmes, but essentially the trend of keeping the laid on revenue expenditures. But the keep issue Israeli, the key question and markets are gonna ask is with the government be able to walk the talk right and also appear saying 5.9% of GDP will that target canned doc Doctor on the high? The second is joined by Sergeant Chen Oi and sergeants to take off so quick. Question to Sergeant Water. What is it that you are looking for for you to say? There'll Okay, look, this is a killer. Budget demands and request and aspirations. We have to be mindful here that that are limited macro degrees of freedom. Why do I say that? Because the government's on a fiscal consolidation party have an anchor, which is 2% of GDP over three years. Fighting like already to expect a half a percent of GDP of consolidation this year. Number one number two This team in the ministry finance has always been extremely conservative, ultra conservative and tax assumption. So I think we should expect that as well. Number three are. There's been the strategic trust on infrastructure and public investing in the last three years, which I think is exactly the right parts to go down and had expect to see more of that same. But when you put these three pieces together that you want to do more public investment, you want to be conservative on tax revenues, and you have to bring the deficit down. That isn't much degree of freedom for anything else. We have to be realistic about that. I think if the budget can balance macro stability and growth, it will be exactly what the doctor ordered at this point in time, bring the deficit down that there be no unpleasant Surprises are in terms of borrowing of stick to cap ex, and I think the more important issue is bring states and PS use along what we've seen as the central government Catholics has moved up sharply, but some of that is offset because states and issues are lagging. I think it was fine. No adventurism power for the cost. Just repeat the template of the last two years. I think that's what the doctor ordered. Modern seven Office In as much as the economic survey seems to indicate so much hope, the numbers seem to be fairly optimistic across the board. If you look at foreign portfolio equity flows January to December 2022 it's down $20 billion. So I mean, it is true that people outside a park their money in in in areas depending on how much money they have actually available to do that. But it is also indicative of the fact that there are concerns at some level about India and investing here. You'll see if you look at the economic survey, I think if you have to summarise what it says, I think it actually indicates that whatever had happened on account of over it and the subsequent years, I think that's very much behind us. So India is back to the kinda panic political situation. But that equitably been served before Cove it struck. I don't think was very comfortable. One. We also have problems in terms of low consumption, low private investment, strike, capital formation, jobs not being created. So I think those problems. So that's how I would really look at economic service now coming today. FBI's, I think, given the fact that we have seen interest rates going up in other markets, we have also seen that that kind of protective frightening is taking place so they can have easy money, which is available earlier, is no longer be that is available now markets and I think seen that flows to India have been fairly physical, so I think it's kinda volatility will probably continue even in 2023 because we're not quite sure about when the rate tightening and the quantitative frightening and rate increasing when that's going to end something, these kind of conditions cannot be taken for granted. And as far as India is concerned, we need to focus problem more on FDI rather than if vera and create a more enabling environment and assuredly that cannot really be done in the year's prime. It's not within the purview of the budget has to be done outside budget. It has to be done taking restraints along because it's much as the central issue to get more foreign direct investment. We have a fragile structural kills at all. Audience of government will have to be talking the same language in order to attract this canopy amusement. Alright, I suggest you know, you know, we're talking about attracting of foreign investment and investment coming into manufacturing from rubber. Let's talk about domestic. Are you more optimistic about way domestically we're doing and spending and how the economy is doing domestically? Is that something you need to focus on more? You know, one really encouraging development over the last couple of years is that private sector balance sheets are much better shape today, then they have been over the last five or 10 years. This is both financial and non financial banks. Have recapitalised acts have begun to lend again. NDF season Better shape and corporate debt to GDP is the lodged in 2006. So this twin balance sheet constrained that we used to talk about inhabiting private investment in the last decade has actually been a deviate. It's no more a binding constraint, and therefore we're getting closer to a private investment cycle which really has to be the end goal of all of this. That one get into a case where private investment starts to create jobs, jobs, drive consumption and you have a virtuous cycle. That said, constraint today, I think, is demand in utilisation manufacture utilisation still at 75 76% and West L Global snow now. So we have to be realistic that this could still take another 68 quarters for utilisation, reads rates to reach a threshold that'll trigger a broad based investment, which is why, over the next year of two, it's incumbent on the public sector to do the heavy lifting on investment both the centre than the States. That's why the quality of spending so important today, let's talk a little bit about specific sectors services. If it's been called a a source of strength, it is expected to grow at more than 9% as against 8.4%. And what the economic survey says is that you know, this has been an area which is being resilient throughout the covet amidst geopolitical uncertainties. So would any of you like to talk a little bit about how the services sector, at one level ready, props up a lot of the hope and ambition that we seen our economy? So actually, it's a natural thing for us young, the size of population and the absence of manufacturing capital. It is there that the service sector actually pulls up the so I mean, it's such a large component of our even of our exports. So I think this will new as er this, and it's a easy win for us to kind of continue to support this expansion of this base. It gives us employment, it doesn't required humongous amount of capital investment, and also it's also neatly fits into what the world wants in terms of substituting services from a lower cost countries in a higher cost country case of the prime Minister reaching parliament Right now, 45 minutes to go for the budget. And we saw the Finance Minister, of course, is is the big star of the day. I mean, she was at the Finance Ministry earlier on, then meant met the president. This is the defence minister, Rajnath Singh and coming into Parliament. So everybody is set now for budget. How long is it going to be? But you know, we were talking about the services sector. Just a small observation. If you look at the Asian Tigers, particularly a few years back in as much as we talk about the services sector and how that's backed are propelled our growth, they were manufacturing oriented. It's it's interesting. It's it's a contrast right, Mr Sap Rwanda at Yeah, I think what Rohinton said. I just want to take it forward. That export of services was the one which really brought our country into the focus with BPO and the IT sector really taking out. We incentivise that sector as we went along today. I think that sector still needs to be looked at and there is a lot of expectation from the industry that whatever the incentives of whatever I would say in centres are required, it's just that whatever benefits have been there should percolate down to that sector and we have been part of a lot of stagnation. The police, it needs the push. See, a lot of factors are coming in. There are a lot of other jurisdictions which are providing those repetitive services at a cheaper rate. And then there is a technology coming in where the boats and other things are taking some of these jobs. What we need is a push for this sector. This is one of the biggest sectors and we have the strength out there. We need to work on that sector. We need to ready look at what is required and I think it's not only the fiscal incentives which are required for the entire service sector, there is the ease of doing business which there is a lot of talk about in the Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Finance and everybody is looking at that to promote service sector exports, that something needs to be the government needs to come here and deliver on that, as was talked about the G 20 is here is on doing. Business is huge out. There have been part of a lot of committees where this is about by the government. So let's talk about another sector industry. Steady recovery is what they're talking about. I'm just gonna highlight a couple of points and then, you know, go ahead With that FDI in the farmer sector industry has risen four times from $180 million in 2019 to 6. 99 million. India has become the second largest phone mobile phone manufacturer in the world. Electronics exports have have risen nearly threefold and traded to micro, small and medium enterprises grown man average of around 30%. So I mean is it seems to suggest that industrial growth in the sector is is all positive. But what are some of the key concerns and challenges? Yes, I think, from a broader economy point of fuel. It's against start with services, I think 9% last year and the series a little anomalous. I don't think we will see that kind of growth, which comes back to the fact that India has to depend on manufacturing and service and industry. Now I think the forecast for a fight 23 is around 4%. I think for India to be a stable mid income country, we need to have at least 20 to 25% manufacturing mix in our GDP. So I think there are good signs of the industry picking up. But I still think that there is a little bit of pessimism when it comes to both domestic consumption and international exports. There are some sectors by the lead stock of auto components auto components at a record year of $20 billion of exports. So I think the entire make in India move or not and make it make in India. But make in India for the world should be an important emphasis to make industries both competitive domestically and and Fran and export basis. So for me, I think any incentives and any incremental government allocations should be towards promoting some of these sectors was in the long term they'll create more jobs. They will create a wider economy and make the economy for more diversified. So again, for me, the biggest risk Ryan over dependence on services, the manufacturing industries more attention will talk about the auto sector in awhile. Better will get in more voices. Knowledge. Go cross to a colleague, a Ma who joins us from Mumbai as she's at the there and mobile to you under the expectations. And really we're now in the last stretch, Vishnu ahead of the budget announcement, absolutely guardian. Just a short while from now, Nirmala Seetharaman will be unveiling budget 2023. And this is not just coming ahead of the big elections next year, but also amidst the global economic gloom that we are seeing where her tasked really will be to limit the fiscal deficit and support industries like manufacturing and infrastructure. So I have with me two guests here Mr Sunil Ciadea, chairman of Western Region and Mr B. T A Garage in managing director Blue Star Limited. Mister Jody, I want to start with you. What is the overall expectation of the industry from the budget? Know the Indian industries expecting a budget which can announce the investment in manufacturing can create more shops. We have given lot of suggestions from C and we are expecting all those suggestions to be included in the budget this year. What's the recommendation? As far as fiscal deficit is concerned? No, we have talked about. We are talked of reducing the fiscal deficit to 4.5% in next three years time. So there should be a you know, a policy which can reduce the fiscal deficit gradually to 4.5% which could not be achieved earlier because of pandemic and other global problems. But half has the industry been able to come out clearly from the pandemic nomine after that. So we've also had the Ukraine war and we've seen the fallout of that globally as well. But our be totally out of the pandemic setback. I think so, very affected Clea the recovery as being much better than the expectations of many sectors. We are doing extremely well across many segments, so I don't think the pandemic has been a concerned. The war created the inflationary pressure and I think that is also coming under control. The we can do much about what is happening outside the country. But if you look at the India, I think policies have been very robust and encouraging. Take, for example, the pill I scheme I and it has attracted huge investment in the sectors in which be alive was announced. So they you are seeing manufacturing capacity expansion across those sectors. I would expect the government to persist with this team that kick start the manufacturing investment in many more sectors. That is first part of it. The second parties. We have not been doing Bell in terms of exports. So how the government can announce a few policies that sort is here expectation so that the export growth takes off from now on because this opportune moment will not come again and next season on it attract foreign investment. The ease of doing business. There are quite a fuel deacon, immunisation and Saul and so forth. That is another team in our expectation. We are also focusing on agriculture in a big way shift to find a way of the agri. Consider reforms as it was proposed could not take place. But you can do a few other things say, for example, crop planning. Take the climate resilient agriculture how we can boost the production shift to foot crossing in a big way so that we are able to participate in the agree exports as Well, so this is another theme in our pre budget memorandum. We expect this to happen, but most importantly, infrastructure building as a team has worked extremely well on, you know, in terms of attracting investment in terms of employment generation. In terms of positioning India for the future, that should continue. Since you spoke outta a sustainability. As far as agriculture is also concerned, I want to ask you about a sustainable economic growth. There is a lot of stress in India as well on green energy on E. V s. What are we expecting? Their know? We have recommended a few support from government. We are talking of green loans for a small scale industries. Bigger industries can invest in our Indian shit, their production or products to green energy. But we have recommended we have asked for support from government to provide softer loans for investment in green manufacturer. And yes, the future is definitely sustainable. Growth? Absolutely. On that note, Al, thank both my guests. Um, Mr Jordi A and Mr Tyagi Rajan, we're taking a very quick break here on NDTV Will be back with a lot more on budget 2023
