Study Warns Urban Growth Could Leave Millions Without Clean Water By 2050

A new study warns that the way cities grow could leave millions of people without access to clean water in the coming decades. Experts say that decisions about where and how new buildings and neighborhoods are built could affect the daily lives and health of hundreds of millions of city residents, reported Newsweek. 

Researchers from the Complexity Science Hub (CSH) in Vienna and the World Bank conducted a study of more than 100 cities in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. They analysed survey data from 183 million buildings and 125,000 households to understand how urban expansion could impact water and sanitation services.

The researchers developed three possible models for urban development by 2050:
Compact: Expanding with greater density within existing areas.
Persistent: Maintaining existing construction and expansion patterns.
Horizontal: Expanding cities into new areas.

If cities expand horizontally, 220 million people will lose access to clean piped water and 190 million will lose access to sewage services. Compared to this, compact development would significantly improve the situation. The study also found that water services are more expensive in sprawling cities.

Water bills in sprawling cities are approximately 75 percent higher than in compact cities. Furthermore, people living on the outskirts of the city have 40 percent less access to essential basic services than those living near the centre.

CSH lead researcher Rafael Prieto-Curiel explained that proper city design can help mitigate water scarcity. He said that good planning and policy can increase access to water and sanitation services without additional expenditure or the construction of new infrastructure. Compact and walkable neighbourhoods with the right density can ensure basic services for all and are also environmentally sustainable.

The study also revealed that by 2050, the population of cities in Africa and Asia will experience rapid population growth. In Africa, urban populations could triple, while in Asia, they could increase by almost half. African cities are already more sprawling than Asian cities, with only 12 percent of people living near the city center, compared to 23 percent in Asia.